Nick Chubb's average draft position (ADP) in fantasy football is creeping up as preseason reports have been optimistic about the runner after his devastating knee injury in 2023.
Chubb is currently the RB28 (per FantasyPros), coming off the board just after Jaylen Warren and ahead of Jonathan Brooks and Austin Ekeler.
Optimism is at an all-time high since a former NFL executive recently told the Cleveland Browns on SI that he should be back early in the season and "be better than ever." And then, of course, there's this video of Chubb squatting 585 pounds just eight months after ACL surgery.
Browns general manager Andrew Berry said on July 29. "You know, he still has a little ways to go, but we're really happy to see where he is as we enter camp and look forward to him to continuing to improve the health of the knee."
Should fantasy football managers believe the hype?
Nick Chubb 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Chubb tore both his ACL and MCL after taking a hit on the left knee from Pittsburgh's Minkah Fitzpatrick in Week 2 of last season. Two surgeries were required to repair the damage: the MCL was immediately repaired, followed by a second surgery to repair the ACL in November.
Chubb should be able to run in time to start the season, but will he be able to cut and trust his knee enough to return to form? That's the four-million-dollar question. Early reports say he looks like he can. In the offseason, the Browns reduced Chubb's salary by around $4 million but gave him the opportunity to make up for it in incentives. In other words, Chubb has every reason to return for his age-28 season.
There's no question that Chubb will be back on the field this season. However, the key concerns are the timing of his return and his effectiveness post-injury. This situation will likely lead to a heavier workload for Jerome Ford at the start of the season. Ford was effective when filling in for Chubb last season. Ford finished the season as the RB17 overall and the RB 26 on a per-game basis in PPR leagues. With D'onta Foreman also dealing with injury, Ford is the runner to roster to back up your Chubb pick.
As far as when and how easily Chubb will return, let's examine a similar case study from just last year.
Jonathan Taylor suffered a similar injury in Week 4 of the 2022 season, and fantasy managers had to determine what level of risk they could tolerate when drafting him for 2023. Taylor started for the Colts in Week 5 but did not return to form until Week 7. He also missed weeks 13-15 before finishing strong as what would have been RB3 in PPR leagues in Week 18 of the season (unfortunately, most fantasy leagues don't don't include Week 18). Taylor finished as the RB33 overall, but the RB8 per game in PPR leagues.
Chubb is undoubtedly capable of returning mid-season and offering big weeks, but Jerome Ford, who is coming off the board as the RB 41, is a necessary handcuff for this run-heavy Stefanski offense. Should Chubb fall into the eighth round of your drafts, it's a swing you must take, and I'm comfortable taking him in the seventh.
Chubb had four consecutive seasons of 1,000+ rushing yards before his 2023 injury, and had his best season yet in 2022, totaling 1,734 all-purpose yards and 13 total touchdowns.
I have a lot of exposure to the Chubb/Ford combo, and as long as their ADPs stay around these spots, I am in on the combo. If Chubb is healthy as I enter my fantasy playoffs, I'll be a very happy manager. If he isn't, I should get a solid floor from Jerome Ford in my flex spot.
Now that you know what to do with Nick Chubb, how about with the rest of your draft? Check out the SI 2024 fantasy football draft kit for everything you need to know to build a championship roster.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as When Should You Draft Nick Chubb in Fantasy Football?.
