Mikel Arteta says Arsenal must win all of their remaining five games to stand a chance of winning the Premier League title, but even that might not be enough if Manchester City win their games in hand.
City's dominant win over Arsenal on Wednesday moved them to within two points of the leaders, giving them control of their destiny as Pep Guardiola asserted after the game. City have seven games left to overtake Arsenal, who only have five games.
Arteta vowed that everything can change in those five fixtures, but he looked a defeated man at the Etihad, unable to offer an explanation as to why Arsenal were so far behind City in their biggest game of the season. The Blues will keep taking a game at a time as they also fight on two other fronts, however they are 1/20 favourites to win the title after their decisive win.
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With the title in their hands, City fans can start to think about when they may see their side seal the title, assuming they continue their 17-game unbeaten run and seven-game winning run in the Premier League.
The soonest that City can overtake Arsenal in the table is Sunday, when they travel to Fulham two days before Arsenal face Chelsea. City then host West Ham next Wednesday, again offering a chance to move top in what is their first of the two games in hand. Win that game, and City will ensure they can start each week top of the table for their final five games of the season.
After facing Chelsea, Arsenal face Newcastle away, before welcoming Brighton to the Emirates. They then travel to Nottingham Forest in their penultimate game, in a potentially-defining fixture at both ends of the table. The Gunners' final game is at home to Wolves, where they can reach their maximum total of 90 points if they reach five wins.
So if City match Arsenal's results and win their first game in hand over West Ham, the first opportunity they will have to secure the title will be their final week trip to Brighton on May 24. That is their second game in hand, and would put them on 91 points, assuming they win against Fulham, West Ham, Leeds, Everton and Chelsea before that.
On the final day, City are at Brentford, where they would presumably lift the trophy, however fans will hope for a possibility of a trophy lift at home in the final Etihad fixture of the season against Chelsea on May 21.
In order for that to happen, City would have to win every game, including against Chelsea, and hope Arsenal lose against Chelsea, Newcastle, Brighton or Forest. The schedule of that weekend means City would know Arsenal's result in Nottingham on the Saturday before facing Chelsea on the Sunday.
Regardless of Arsenal, though, City know they need 18 points from their final seven games to guarantee the title. If Arsenal drop any points, that magic number will fall. One draw for Arsenal in their final game would leave City needing 16 points, and a defeat needing 15.
With huge Champions League semi-final matches against Real Madrid falling between the Leeds, Everton and Chelsea games, City will also have to manage that workload in order to seal the title as soon as possible.
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