Rishi Sunak on Tuesday faces arguably the most precarious stage in his time as leader, as his party remains riven with divisions.
The prime minister is attempting to avert a mass rebellion among Right-wing Tory MPs over his Rwanda deportation bill. He met potential rebels over breakfast in No 10 on Tuesday morning for eleventh hour talks, as he tried to convince them to back the legislation.
The bill seeks to send asylum seekers and economic migrants who arrive to the UK in small boats to Rwanda. However, some on the Right of the party have argued that a tougher law is needed to ensure the scheme works.
In a a boost to the PM, One Nation moderates – numbering around 100 MPs – said they would recommend backing the bill but have warned against any changes further down the line, arguing they could breach international law.
The prime minister is reportedly at risk of seeing a vote of no confidence from members of his party who are unhappy with the policy and direction.
It means Mr Sunak is facing the biggest challenge to his authority from his own MPs who could inflict a heavy blow to him over one of his key policies.
Mr Sunak has told MPs the Conservatives must "unite or die" at this crucial stage but it remains to be seen whether they will.
What is the Rwanda Bill MPs are voting on?
The Rwanda Bill aims to cut immigration rates and deter people from crossing the Channel in small boats. The Supreme Court last month ruled that plans to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda were unlawful.
The proposed legislation seeks to allow Parliament to deem Rwanda a “safe” country. It further blocks courts and tribunals from considering claims that the country has not acted under the Refugee Convention or other international obligations.
Those on the Right of the party appear to prioritise national sovereignty and a desire to see the £290 million plan to “stop the boats” enforced. Meanwhile, those on the Left emphasise the rule of law and the UK’s international obligations.
As reported by the Guardian, to avoid defeat at Tuesday’s Commons vote, Mr Sunak will need to keep the rebellion below 56 abstentions or 28 votes against.
A Government bill has not been defeated this early on since 1986.
When is the vote on the Rwanda Bill?
The vote is on Tuesday December 12. It will be the first opportunity for the Commons to vote on the legislation at a second reading.
A second reading debate is generally opened by a Government minister, spokesperson or MP responsible for the bill. This comes before a response from the official opposition spokesperson. However, it is possible for a bill to have a second reading with no debate (as long as MPs agree to its progress).
Once backbench MPs have given their views, it is for the Commons to decide by voting if the bill should be given its second reading.
Then, at around 7pm GMT, members of the house will be asked to decide whether to support the bills progress to its next stage in Parliament.
What will happen if the Rwanda Bill is passed?
If the Commons decides that the bill should be given its second reading, it can be taken to the next stage. However, it could face problems in the upper chamber, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps conceded, despite believing the Commons can pass it through “for sure". “Sometimes you have to fight these things through,” he said.
Others are more convinced that the bill could face serious issues, including Robert Jenrick, who quit his post as immigration minister over the legislation. He told the BBC on Sunday he will not support the “weak bill that will not work” but added: “We can fix this."
A legal assessment for the Government has said that, due to interim injunctions from Strasbourg, there is only a “50 per cent at best” chance of successfully getting flights off to Kigali next year.
What will happen if it’s opposed?
A defeat of the vote would shred Mr Sunak's authority and could be extremely damaging to his leadership. However, One Nation chairman Damian Green said any Conservatives who think they should change leader is "either mad, or malicious, or both".
While the Supreme Court cannot strike down primary legislation, it has the power to make a Declaration of Incompatibility. This is a judgment that says an Act of Parliament should be rethought as Parliament would, in theory, amend the law given the opportunity.
