Boris Johnson is anxiously waiting for a report on lockdown parties across Downing Street and Whitehall.
The release date of Sue Gray’s inquiry has been thrown into chaos after the Met Police announced it was investigating a “number of” the gatherings to see if they broke the law.
On Tuesday it was claimed Sue Gray's report could be released in full because the Met Police had given the green light.
But the Mirror now understands that claim was inaccurate. In fact, government and police officials are still locked in talks about whether Gray's report will prejudice the police inquiry.
All the while, Boris Johnson ’s future hangs in the balance - with Tory MPs waiting to see if they will try to oust him.
No10 today confirmed the Prime Minister has not been interviewed by police - yet. But didn’t rule it out in future.
So what on earth is going on and when will we actually see the damn thing? Here’s everything you need to know…
What is the Sue Gray report?
Top civil servant Sue Gray is investigating a string of parties between May 2020 and April 2021 - mostly in No10 and its garden.
The 64-year-old took over the inquiry from Cabinet Secretary Simon Case after it emerged a party had been held in his own office.
Her probe was set up to get “a general understanding of the nature of the gatherings”.
That means saying who attended, the “setting and the purpose”, and “reference to adherence to the guidance in place at the time”.
But she cannot rule whether the PM broke the law (which is for police) or the Ministerial Code (which is for a different watchdog).
And the names of junior staff are likely to be kept anonymous. Disciplinary action will be kept secret too.
When is the Sue Gray report due - and why is it delayed?
Her report was due this week, but thrown into chaos after the Met Police began investigating “a number of” the gatherings.
Government and police officials are wrangling over whether publication of the report could prejudice a police investigation.
First the report was set to be delayed, then split in two - then it emerged Ms Gray was planning to issue her full report after all, this week.
But in fact, it’s still tied up in talks with the police about exactly what can be published (more on this below).
Downing Street - which has control over when the report is published - had still not received the report as of 3.30pm on Thursday.
Hopes it will be published this week are fading.
That’s because Boris Johnson has pledged to publish the report and give a statement in Parliament - which sits limited hours on Thursday and Friday, and needs advance notice of any statement.
That means if it arrives with Downing Street after about 2pm on Friday, it’s unlikely to be published before Monday at the earliest.
No10 said on Thursday: “It remains hypothetically possible to publish it today or tomorrow.
“But we will need to keep in close contact with the Speaker about the Parliamentary process that would flow from that.”
If Sue Gray gives No10 the report at night, Boris Johnson will “probably seek to publish it the following day,” the PM’s spokesman said.
Why is there so much confusion over the release date?
Confusion has been fuelled by briefing, counter-briefing and guesswork by anonymous MPs all feeding into reporting.
But the Mirror understands it was worsened by a major mix-up over exactly what the Met Police were saying about the report.
Police sources suggested on Tuesday that Scotland Yard had no objection to Sue Gray's report being published in full.
This could be because lockdown breaches are punished with fixed penalty notices, so there’s barely any chance of prejudicing a jury.
But the Mirror now understands this was not, in fact the case. The opposite was actually true, and Scotland Yard still had questions over the report.
On Thursday No10 confirmed discussions were “continuing” about the “interplay between report and the Met’s work”.
Ominously, the PM’s deputy official spokesman refused to rule out the entire report being delayed after all, until the Met probe finishes.
“That would be a matter for the investigation team,” he said. “That’s not a question I can answer.”
How will the Sue Gray report be published?
Sue Gray will send a complete report to Downing Street, and will probably present it directly to Boris Johnson first.
Downing Street has then promised to publish it as soon as possible - which most people are interpreting as a few hours.
Following this, Boris Johnson will come to Parliament to make a statement.
This is to be accountable to MPs, but also to ‘own the narrative’ - for instance by publicly sacking staff or vowing to make amends.
The Prime Minister’s diary for the weekend was still up in the air on Thursday night, with No10 unable to say if he’d be at Chequers.
Will the Sue Gray report be published in full?
No10 have repeatedly promised to publish the full findings of Sue Gray - in other words, the same report she hands to No10.
Boris Johnson today said "of course" it would be released in full while No10 said: “It remains our intention to publish what we receive from the investigation team.”
Downing Street does still have the power to censor or cut out bits of the report, a power which has some people worried.
But perhaps the more relevant question is how much Sue Gray’s report will be “self-censored” before it gets to No10.
The Mirror understands it will not contain all the evidence she received, only a summary, and could leave out individual staff names.
This means it may not contain elements like text exchanges or photos of Boris Johnson with wine bottles, which might leak out later.
What does it all mean for Boris Johnson?
The timing and nature of the report is crucial for Boris Johnson because it affects his own MPs trying to topple him as Prime Minister.
54 Tory MPs need to send no confidence letters to trigger a leadership challenge, and many are waiting for the outcome of Sue Gray’s report before deciding whether to send a letter.
One Tory elected in 2019 told the Mirror things had “quietened down in the past week”, adding: “Sometimes you get to the precipice, look over and go ‘aagh!’.
“Most of the Tory MPs I've spoken to in the last few days seem to think he will get through it.”
But they warned: “People are not so much waiting for the Sue Gray report as for how the Prime Minister responds afterwards.”
