Top civil servant Sue Gray has been investigating a string of alleged lockdown-busting parties across Downing Street and Whitehall.
But the release date of her report was thrown into chaos today after the Met Police also announced it would investigate “a number of” gatherings to see if they broke the law.
Boris Johnson - who has said he's willing to be interviewed by police - was told about the development before it was revealed by Scotland Yard’s Commissioner Cressida Dick.
At first it seemed Sue Gray’s report could be split in two - one part paused, to let police investigate, and then another part published in truncated form on any parties not probed by police.
But the Mirror understands events are moving extremely quickly and the Cabinet Office is now in talks about publishing the entire report, in a matter of days, after all.
Here is what we understand as of the afternoon of Tuesday 25 January….
What is the Sue Gray report?
Top civil servant Sue Gray is investigating a string of parties in Whitehall between May 2020 and April 2021 - mostly in 10 Downing Street and its garden.
The 64-year-old took over the inquiry from Cabinet Secretary Simon Case after it emerged a party had been held in his own office.
Her inquiry has been set up to get “a general understanding of the nature of the gatherings”.
That means saying who attended, the “setting and the purpose”, and “reference to adherence to the guidance in place at the time”.
But its remit does not include saying whether the PM broke the law (which is for police) or the Ministerial Code (which is for a different watchdog).
When is the Sue Gray report due?
Sue Gray had been due to publish a report this week on what she found.
But that now might have been scuppered by the Met Police announcing it is also investigating a number of the parties from 2020/21.
Sue Gray’s terms of reference said: “If during the course of the work any evidence emerges of behaviour that is potentially a criminal offence, the matter will be referred to the police and the Cabinet Office’s work may be paused.”
However - the Mirror understands the Cabinet Office is still discussing what, if anything, will be paused, and there are several possible outcomes.
Will the Sue Gray report be split into two parts?
We thought it would be, but that's now looking less likely.
Essentially, as of this lunchtime, No10 thought Sue Gray would only be able to carry on investigating - and publish a report on - any party that police were not investigating.
She would have to “pause” work on any party that police were investigating.
This would essentially split her report into two - one report due imminently, and one report that could be weeks or months away depending on when Scotland Yard finish.
The Prime Minister's spokesman said No10 "won't publish anything that relates to the work of the police", but can continue to work on allegations that do not reach the police "threshold".
However…. it looks like this has already changed since the No10 briefing at 11.30am.
Why might the Sue Gray report be published in full after all?
The Mirror understands the situation is now moving fast after today’s police announcement.
Since the No10 briefing this lunchtime, sources in Scotland Yard said the force would, in fact, not object to the publishing of Sue Gray’s report.
While there is always the possibility of a police investigation being pre-empted, police are more relaxed because they have obtained much of their information from Sue Gray herself.
And crucially the penalty for breaching lockdown rules is a fixed penalty notice, which means it’s highly unlikely to prejudice a jury. Human rights barrister Adam Wagner said he saw "no legal reason" why Sue Gray’s report should not be published.
It’s understood the Cabinet Office have been in talks with the police to work out whether Scotland Yard is, indeed, happy to have a full report out in the public domain. A government source said these talks will “go a long way” to helping Sue Gray’s team decide what can be published. The Times reported that Scotland Yard had given the green light for publication as of 4pm on Tuesday.
So when will the report release date actually be?
The situation is very fluid, but the Mirror has been told despite all the drama, Sue Gray’s report - either the full thing or a truncated version (see above) - could be published as soon as tomorrow.
A government source said No10 getting hold of the report "could happen as quickly" as today.
If so, the report could be published on Wednesday just before PMQs.
What does it all mean for Boris Johnson?
The timing and nature of the report is crucial for Boris Johnson because it could affect his own MPs trying to topple him as Prime Minister.
54 Tory MPs need to send no confidence letters to trigger a leadership challenge, and many were waiting for the outcome of Sue Gray’s report before deciding whether to send a letter.
A partial report would mean Tory MPs were hamstrung on whether or not to vote no confidence in their leader. But a full report would mean they could safely reach a conclusion on whether he should be ousted.
One Tory elected in 2019 told the Mirror things had “quietened down in the past week”, adding: “Sometimes you get to the precipice, look over and go ‘aagh!’.
“Most of the Tory MPs I've spoken to in the last few days seem to think he will get through it.”
But they warned: “People are not so much waiting for the Sue Gray report as for how the Prime Minister responds afterwards.”
What else could happen?
Some lawyers have questioned whether the incidents may be examples of malfeasance or misconduct in public office or neglect of duty.
If police consider such offences that could lead to a prosecution on more serious charges which may result in a prison sentence.
There is also speculation over whether the probe could open the door to possible action for perverting the course of justice, if officers discover those involved lied or tried to conceal evidence.
