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Back from Atlanta, and here we go …
From George Halmi (@Hammer5726): When and how long will Watson be suspended?
From John May (@juandemayo): Number of games for Deshaun Watson suspension?
George and John—putting a number on it’s difficult. Offhand, I would say an eight-game suspension, but that’s a guess based on history. And I’m also aware of how sensitive the NFL is to public perception in cases like these, and so it’d be naive not to think what’s happened in other leagues, in cases like Trevor Bauer’s two-year suspension from MLB, wouldn’t weigh on the decision-makers here. Conversely, I also think the fact that Watson wasn’t charged is a big factor.
As for timing, my best guess is we’ll get a decision in July. Roger Goodell confirmed Tuesday the league’s investigative process is nearing completion, but I don’t think that necessarily means a decision is imminent. There is a July 1 cutoff for pretrial discovery, and it makes sense that the NFL would want to see what comes out in discovery before making its call.
Ken Blaze/USA TODAY Sports
We’ve mentioned a few times here the possibility that the league would wait until the civil cases are completed, which would not be until 2023 (the court will press pause on the case if it’s not resolved by mid-summer, and pick it up again March 1 next year) absent a settlement. My feeling now is that because of the high profile of the case, the league won’t want to wait to render a verdict, with the caveat that it could add to the initial sanctions later if needed.
None of this is perfect, of course. But Goodell has already said he doesn’t plan to use the commissioner’s exempt list to put Watson on paid leave, which leaves a suspension as the only lever to pull, and you can rest assured that optics will be a factor in the decision on that one. Because, well, they always are for the NFL.
From Danny (@BetTheOver85): Your way too early picks for OROY & DROY?
Danny! My early picks …
On the offensive side, I’ll go with Saints receiver Chris Olave. He’s going to an offense that will throw the ball. He’s a polished route runner, groomed by a former NFL receiver (Brian Hartline) at Ohio State. And New Orleans will put Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara out there with him, which should give him a steady stream of favorable matchups. Now, I don’t think he’ll have a Ja’Marr Chase–type rookie year. But in a down year for skill players in the draft, I think he’ll be plenty good enough to win this race.
On defense, I was tempted to go with Houston’s Derek Stingley Jr., because he transitioned from high school to the SEC so seamlessly that it stands to reason, provided some good health, he’d make a similarly smooth jump to the pros. The trouble is history tells us that the odds aren’t good a corner will win the award—just two of the last 23 winners (Marcus Peters in 2015 and Marshon Lattimore in ’17) played the position. So I’ll go with chalk and say Lions pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, pro-ready as they come, will get 10 sacks and the hardware.
From Caimh McDonnell (@Caimh): Who is the player you were most convinced was going to be a superstar and it just never happened?
Caim, if you want my Ohio State–biased answer—and I’d like to think I’m usually fairly cognizant of which Buckeyes will make it and which won’t—I’d go with Chris Ballard’s first first-rounder as Colts GM, Malik Hooker. I was convinced the guy was Ed Reed coming out, and I’d still maintain that his single season as a starter in Columbus was among the greatest a college safety has ever had. Injuries were a factor for his failure in Indianapolis, but even aside from those, he never quite put it all together.
And in the nonbiased category, there are a few of late that surprised me. I’ll say one thing I absolutely had wrong that year was thinking the floor was relatively high for both Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen. Rosen was traded after a year and cut by his second team after two, while Darnold has also been traded and now his salary is an anchor tied to the ankle of his second team. So … I didn’t do great there. I also thought 2020 top-10 picks Devin Bush and Ed Oliver would be stars, and both have just been O.K. to this point.
I’m sure there are others I had wrong, but those are a few that jump out at me.
From Caimh McDonnell (@Caimh): Also, any chance of a new podcast? Loved the old one.
Hopefully soon, Caimh.
From Aiden (@AidenBF56): Why has Isaiah Simmons been so disappointing? He was my draft crush for that class, and I’ve chalked it up to him being used improperly, but maybe that’s just me.
Aiden, I think it’s because he was a bigger projection than most people realized coming out of Clemson in 2020. The freakish athleticism that made so many, like yourself, fall for him is still all there. His physical profile, to be sure, is rare. But what Simmons was doing at Clemson isn’t anything like what he’s doing in the pros.
The Cardinals drafted him to be an off-ball linebacker when he was more of a safety hybrid in college—generally further from the ball, and running and chasing. That meant, really, he wasn’t taught as much to play at the point of contact, or even tackle correctly from the linebacker position, and all of it showed up as he got to the pros. So he was having to learn all of that, while moving closer to ball, where things happen faster and players have to react quicker. So he’s learning to take on a pulling guard, as that guard is flying at him.
Simmons, to be fair, showed improvement last year, and his first two offseasons were made more difficult because of the pandemic, but there’s a real question, going into his third year, over whether he’ll ever live up to his draft position. And there’s a lingering one, too, on if he’d be better off playing in a Derwin James–type of do-everything safety role, the kind that Kyle Hamilton (another supersize college safety) could wind up playing for the Ravens.
Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports
From side by side (@ensohenzo): Are the Patriots going to be closer to the No. 1 draft pick than the No. 32?
Henzo, I think they’ll be closer to 32, but close—I think the roster is in the bottom half of the league right now, but Bill Belichick should be able to coach them into playoff contention. Whether they make it is hard to say. You figure, at a baseline, the Chiefs, Bills and the South and North champions will be in the playoffs; and then New England could be fighting with the Chargers, Broncos, Raiders; some combination of the Bengals, Browns, Ravens and Steelers; and the Titans or Colts for one of three wild-card spots.
Will they be better than three of those teams? TBD.
As it stands now, there are several very real questions here. Who’ll call plays? How will the loss of Josh McDaniels impact Mac Jones? Does he have enough help at receiver? Are the younger off-ball linebackers good enough? Who will play corner? The bottom line is New England’s going to have to come up with a lot of answers. Belichick’s good at finding those and has earned the benefit of the doubt. But I’m not sure there’s reason to be overly optimistic.
From Alec (@thatisarapp): Do you think Justin Herbert gets so much hate on this app (Twitter) from other fans bc they are jealous? I think that has a lot do with it. So many teams would be so lucky to have the young buck on their team.
Alec, I’ve seen no such Justin Herbert slander on the bird app. So I wouldn’t be overly concerned with it. If you’re talking about a quarterback currently in the NFL that you’d want for the next 10 years, Herbert’s comfortably in the top five, and maybe behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Feel fortunate you have him, and don’t concern yourself with the opinion of people with nine digits after their name in their Twitter handle.
From Nate Assefa (@NateAssefa): Do you think there is any feasible chance Willis starts at some point this year (outside of Tannehill getting injured)? Vrabel said he’s made strides earlier today.
Nate, I think if Malik Willis is starting, absent injury, it would mean something has really gone wrong for the Titans. And that’s no affront to Willis—who has real potential. More so, it’s a statement on where Tennessee is as a team, with a core of players who’ve been to the playoffs together three years in a row and have a lot on the line collectively going into the 2022 season.
Between Derrick Henry, Taylor Lewan, Ben Jones, Jeffery Simmons, Harold Landry and Kevin Byard, plus guys who’ve joined up more recently (Bud Dupree, Robert Woods), they have a lot of players for whom the time is now. And then they have Ryan Tannehill, who’s making $29 million in cash this year, and carrying a $38.6 million cap hit, in the final season with guarantees on the four-year deal he signed in 2020. The offense has been built for him, and the team stuck with him (in part because of the contract) after last year ended pretty poorly.
On the flip side, there’s Willis, who comes in with a big learning curve, having played in Liberty’s simplistic offense in college, and would probably require a lot of schematic help to play early on—which would force the other 10 guys in the huddle to adjust, too.
All of this, from the 30,000-foot view, looks to me like the Titans have a very tightly wound situation around an older core, that would be complicated to unspool for a developmental quarterback. I’m definitely not saying Willis hasn’t gotten off to a good start. By all accounts, he’s a good kid and came off as sharp in predraft meetings, so progress should be expected. But his starting point says he’s got a long way to go, which I think would make for an awkward on-field fit in 2022 with a team that’s pretty close.
Now, if Tannehill goes the wrong way, or the team does, Willis could get in there. But again, that would mean things have gone the wrong way.
From 386Phin (@joeyfo386): Over or under 4 games Teddy Bridgewater starts for Mia??
Joey, if you’re asking whether Tua Tagovailoa will be benched, I don’t think so. After the Deshaun Watson pursuit, and later the firing of Brian Flores, Dolphins owner Stephen Ross’s focus pretty clearly moved to wanting to get a clear answer on whether the fifth pick in the 2020 draft, a guy Miami took over Herbert, could be the team’s long-term answer at quarterback.
So barring injury (a tricky bet with Tagovailoa), I’m taking the under on Bridgewater starting four games. Chris Grier drafted Tagovailoa, Mike McDaniel was hired to work with Tagovailoa and, come hell or high water, Ross is going to find out about him this fall.
From untag me from arguments in my mentions pls (@PaulTweetz2Much): How many wins does Philly get with only small improvements to Hurts?
Paul, I think they’d tread water in that circumstance. My feeling is the division will be about the same as it was last year, their schedule is manageable (they play the AFC South and NFC North) and the roster is better. But other teams will have caught up some to what Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen built for Jalen Hurts last year. So evolution, both scheme-wise and individually, will be necessary for Philly to take another jump.
