Closing summary
Time to wrap up.
On Wall Street, the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have fallen, with Tesla shares down 6.8% as price cuts ate into the electric carmaker’s profit margins, while Netflix slid 8.6% after its quarterly revenues missed analysts’ forecasts.
Over here, Marks & Spencer has been refused permission to demolish and rebuild its flagship store on Oxford Street in the West End of London in a win for campaigners concerned about the carbon footprint of redevelopment.
The Bank of England could plunge the UK into a recession by raising rates too far, the former governor Mervyn King has said.
Supermarkets must make prices clearer, the UK’s competition watchdog has said after finding that confusing labels were preventing shoppers from getting the best deals.
Global wheat prices jumped more than 8% yesterday, the biggest daily jump in more than a decade, after Russia pulled out of a UN-brokered Black Sea grain agreement and carried out heavy air strikes on grain stores in the Black Sea port of Odesa. The price of wheat rose further this morning before falling back.
The most active wheat contract traded in Chicaco is currently down 0.48% to 724 1/2 per bushel, after hitting a three-week high of $7.50 3/4 per bushel yesterday.
Premier Foods, the maker of Mr Kipling cakes, Oxo cubes and Bisto gravy granules, has said it believes recent food cost inflation has peaked, and it is not planning any more price rises for its food products for the rest of the year.
UK borrowers received a glimmer of good news after average rates on new two- and five-year fixed mortgages fell for the first time since May.
Nigel Farage has praised a “swift” intervention by government ministers after reports that new laws could be drawn up to stop banks closing customers’ accounts because they disagree with their political views.
The government’s green energy ambitions have been dealt a blow after plans for a giant offshore windfarm off the Norfolk coast ground to a halt due to spiralling supply chain costs and rising interest rates.
Holidaymakers are not being deterred by the heatwave in Europe and are continuing to jet off on their summer vacations amid booming demand for travel, according to easyJet.
Thank you for reading. We’ll be back tomorrow. Take care – JK
Updated
The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has lifted sanctions on the Russian businessman Oleg Tinkov.
The decision comes days after Sir Richard Branson urged the government to reconsider its decision to sanction Tinkov, a serial entrepreneur who founded the digital bank Tinkoff.
Tinkov was sanctioned in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine but has criticised the “insane” war and renounced Russian citizenship over it.
A foreign office spokesperson said:
Having considered all of the factors in this case, including the actions Mr Tinkov has taken following his sanctions designation, we have revoked his designation.
We keep all sanctions designations under review.
And here is our full story on the stark warning from the former Bank of England governor Mervyn King:
The Bank of England could plunge the UK into a recession by raising rates too far, the former governor Mervyn King has said.
In a broadside a fortnight before Bank officials are due to meet to decide the next step for interest rates, Lord King said the signals from the credit markets in 2021 that indicated inflation was about to rocket were now showing that price growth was about to drop sharply.
Financial markets expect the Bank to increase the base rate from the current level of 5% on 3 August.
In an interview with Merryn Somerset Webb on the Bloomberg podcast Merryn Talks Money, King said officials on the monetary policy committee could tighten monetary policy too far if they pushed for further rate increases, triggering a recession.
Updated
Here is our full story on the M&S flagship store in Oxford Street:
Some reaction to the decision:
The national charity campaigning to protect Britain’s modern architectural and design heritage tweeted:
⚠️BREAKING NEWS // The Secretary of State has just rejected plans for the demolition of the M&S Oxford Street store.
— C20 Society (@C20Society) July 20, 2023
A huge victory for heritage and environmental campaigners, and a landmark decision for the future of UK construction and the built environment.
More to follow... pic.twitter.com/5QlVj9BNGd
M&S refused permission to demolish and rebuild flagship Oxford Street store
Marks & Spencer has been refused permission to demolish and rebuild its flagship shop on London’s Oxford Street after opposition from Michael Gove, in a win for campaigners concerned about the carbon footprint of redevelopment.
The Communities Secretary launched a public inquiry into proposals to flatten the 1929 art deco building and replace it with a much larger 10-storey retail and office block last year after the plans had received support from local authorities.
Today, the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities said Gove disagreed with the recommendation from inspectors to approve the plans and had “decided to refuse permission”.
Stuart Machin, the boss of M&S, accused Gove of “playing to the gallery” with the decision which he said was a “short-sighted act of self-sabotage” the effects of which would be “felt far beyond the West End”.
It is particularly galling given there are currently 17 approved and proceeding demolitions in Westminster and four on Oxford Street alone making it unfathomable why M&S’s proposal to redevelop an aged and labyrinthian site that has been twice denied listed status has been singled out for refusal.
The row over the shop on London’s Oxford Street has become a cause célèbre in the battle over the shape of redevelopments and the fate of Britain’s high streets.
In June last year Gove, secretary of state for levelling up, housing and communities, ordered a public inquiry into the plan to demolish and rebuild the retailer’s flagship store on the most famous of Britain’s high streets.
Updated
Back to global wheat prices, which have ticked slightly lower, after yesterday’s sharp rise of nearly 9%.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets ad Hargreaves Lansdown, said:
Just as painful food inflation was beginning to ease, Russian attacks on grain storage facilities in Ukraine risk causing another spike in costs of staple ingredients. Wheat futures have jumped after missiles were fired at infrastructure, following Moscow’s decision to leave the Black Sea Grain deal. Hopes that a fast deal to revive the pact could materialise are dissipating, with Russia’s position appearing more intractable after it said that any ships heading Ukrainian ports will be considered carriers of military cargo and attacked.
Although its highly disappointing for Western shoppers, dealing with prices increases at the tills, this move is treacherous for countries grappling with severe drought, particularly in the horn of Africa, where millions of people are at risk of acute food insecurity and famine.
Cutting off Europe’s breadbasket region yet again could hardly come at a worst time as unusually hot weather has descended. The escalating crisis is coinciding with a severe dry spell in key growing regions in the United States, which is leading to lower expectations of yields for the ongoing harvest, with US wheat stocks for 2023/24 projected to come in at a 16 year low. This highly unwelcome collision of factors has pushed up US wheat futures prices by more than 13% since Tuesday, adding to concerns that food prices will remain very sticky.
She has also looked at petrol and oil prices:
Despite the uncertainty about where grocery bills head next, relief at the UK’s headline inflation number is still reverberating around markets. Falls in the price of fuel were the biggest driver of the fast move downwards in the rate of consumer price rises and that trend does not look like it’ll be reversed significantly any time soon.
Oil prices have steadied around $79 a barrel amid expectations of lower demand in China, as investors still waiting for more detail about what further economic stimulus from Chinese authorities will look like. The expectation that levers will be pulled to boost domestic demand across the world’s second largest economy has helped push up commodity stocks, which are among the biggest gainers on the FTSE 100.
Bank of England could trigger recession by raising rates too far, warns former governor
The Bank of England risks triggering a recession in the UK by raising interest rates too far in an attempt to bring inflation down, the central bank’s former governor Mervyn King has warned.
King said in an interview with the Bloomberg podcast “Merryn Talks Money” that the central bank has been ignoring signals from money supply data, which had pointed to higher inflation before the Bank acted.
The comments add to concerns about the impact that the Bank’s most aggressive series of rate rises in three decades, to 5%, is having on the economy. Money supply economists correctly predicted the sky-high inflation (which has now fallen back to 7.9% but is still way above the Bank’s 2% target) – and are now warning that a collapse in the data could point to recession.
King said in the interview:
The risk is that having ignored money when inflation was rising, they’re now ignoring money when inflation is actually about to fall.
What we could see, therefore, is a mistake in both directions over a period of three or four years.
If they carry on for the next six months or so, tightening monetary policy, it could well be that they generate both a recession as well as a sharp fall in inflation.”
After rocketing in 2020 and early 2021, money supply growth in the UK has slumped and was flat in May, the latest available data. For monetarists, growth and inflation are a function of the quantity of money in circulation and its velocity — the number of times it changes hands.
Even so, the Bank hiked its base rate by half a percentage point to 5% last month after signs that price and wage pressures are proving much stickier than expected. Data yesterday showed that inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index, is finally slowing, to 7.9% in June from 8.7% in May.
Exceedingly good news? Mr Kipling owner says UK food inflation has peaked
On that subject, the maker of Mr Kipling cakes, Oxo cubes and Bisto gravy granules has said it believes recent food cost inflation has peaked, and it is not planning any more price rises for its food products for the rest of the year.
The news came as owner Premier Foods reported a 21% increase in sales in the first quarter of the financial year, compared with a year earlier.
The grocery sector has been under pressure in recent months, with food producers facing a surge in cost of ingredients and retailers trying to keep prices low to attract customers.
Sales of branded products were nearly 18% higher in the 13 weeks to 1 July, while the London-listed company said it had further grown its market share during the past quarter.
UK watchdog tells supermarkets to make prices clearer
High food inflation in the UK has not been driven by weak competition between supermarkets, an initial review into grocery pricing from the competition watchdog has found.
However, the Competition and Markets Authority also said rules on pricing should be tightened and that retailers must do their bit to help shoppers compare prices easily.
The CMA will now look at competition for 10 product areas including milk, bread and baby formula, or across the wider supply chain, to ensure supermarkets pass on savings to customers as cost inflation eases. So far, it has found:
Evidence to date indicates high food price inflation has not been driven by weak retail competition, but competitive pressure is important as input prices fall
Next phase of CMA probe will examine competition and prices across the supply chain for the product categories identified
Rules on unit pricing should be tightened and retailers must comply to help shoppers compare prices easily
On the last point, the watchdog voiced some concerns – for example, different measurements are being used for similar types of products, making it hard for consumers to compare deals on a like-for-like basis. So for instance, tea bags being priced per 100 grams for some products and others being unit priced per each tea bag. Or sometimes it’s hard to read the pricing information because the text is too small or the shelf edge labels are hidden.
Over the past couple of months, the watchdog has assessed how retail competition is working in the UK grocery sector, particularly between supermarkets such as Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Tesco as well as discounters, including Aldi and Lidl. It said:
Not everyone is able to benefit fully from strong competition, particularly those who cannot travel to large stores or shop online, and therefore may rely on higher-priced convenience stores.
Now that some input costs are starting to fall, there are some signs that grocery retailers are planning to start rebuilding their profit margins. The CMA will monitor this carefully in the months ahead, to ensure that people benefit from competitive prices as input costs fall.
Updated
Farage praises government for reportedly considering new laws on bank accounts
Nigel Farage has praised the government following reports that ministers are considering passing new laws that would prevent banks shutting customers’ accounts because they disagree with their political views.
The former Ukip leader said MPs are “beginning to realise that this system is coming for them as well” after his bank accounts were closed by Coutts because his views “did not align with” its values.
Under plans to protect free speech, banks could lose their licences if they blacklist people with controversial views, The Times reported.
Speaking to the PA news agency, Farage said:
Well done, the government. This is one of the swiftest interventions I’ve seen by government for many, many years.
And hat’s because this problem of the way banks have been behaving has been building up for years and years and years. Every MP will know of constituents, small businessmen and women who’ve literally been shut down by their banks with no reason given whatsoever.
I also think that because of the politically exposed persons (PEPs) rule, I think they’re beginning to realise that this system is coming for them as well.
He claimed there is “a real sense of anger” among the public, after taxpayers bailed out banks during the 2008 financial crisis, that they “can now treat us with contempt”.
The closure of his accounts sparked outrage among senior Tory MPs, who have piled pressure on Coutts and its owner NatWest.
Rishi Sunak said “this is wrong” and that “no one should be barred from using basic services for their political views”.
The Treasury is expected to announce plans as soon as next week to extend the notice time given to customers to close their accounts from one month to three months, The Times said. Banks will also have to explain why they are closing an account, and customers will be able to appeal against the decision.
Farage said he was “really angry” that several members of his family have been refused bank accounts or had them closed.
Angela Knight, former head of the British Bankers’ Association, said the politically exposed persons (PEPs) rule is a “grey area” that is “worthy of discussion” as she criticised Coutts’ move.
Veteran journalist Andrew Neil said Coutts “acted like a kind of political politburo rather than a bank”.
He added:
If banks want to act as political parties and have political criteria, they should publish what their political criteria is before you can have their bank account. They should also make themselves accountable to the public.
UK mortgage rates down after drop in inflation
Mortgage rates in the UK have fallen back after yesterday’s sharp slowdown in inflation to 7.9%, which raised hopes that the Bank of England may not need to raise interest rates as high as feared.
The average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate has declined to 6.79% today from 6.81% yesterday, while the average five-year fix is now at 6.31%, down from 6.33, according to data provider Moneyfacts.
At the same time, some savings rates have increased. The average one-year fixed savings rate rose to 5.14% from 5.13% while the average rate on an easy access savings account is unchanged at 2.62%.
Inflation slowed more than expected to 7.9% in June from 8.7% in May because of a sharp drop in petrol prices. While this is still far above the Bank’s 2% target, financial markets are no longer betting that interest rates will rise above 6%. However, UK inflation remains the highest among the G7 group of advanced economies.
Our banking correspondent Kalyeena Makortoff has done a handy explainer on the UK rules on access to banking. Everyone has a right to a basic account but banks can deny customers additional services.
And our columnist Nils Pratley says Nigel Farage has a point – Coutts should explain itself.
Updated
Nigel Farage has taken aim at Alison Rose, the chief executive of NatWest, which owns Coutts.
It is Dame Alison Rose, the CEO of NatWest, who must bear the heaviest responsibility for this scandal.https://t.co/V4ZAqkXNjE
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) July 20, 2023
I now have evidence Coutts LIED to me..
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) July 18, 2023
In an explosive 40 page memo, “Brexit” is mentioned 86 times, “Russia” 144 & “PEP” 10.
Support for Trump + views on immigration, net zero & the vaccine are listed as reasons to exit me.
They say my account is commercially viable! pic.twitter.com/QjPCuUetu3
Former banking chief says 'grey area' needs clearing up after Coutts shuts Farage account
Angela Knight, the former chief executive of the British Bankers’ Association, said she found it “uncomfortable” to see a bank close someone’s account because of their political views, referring to Coutts bank’s decision to shut Nigel Farage’s account. She said it is a “grey area” that needs to be addressed.
Coutts, an exclusive private lender that caters for royals and the super-rich, terminated its relationship with Farage earlier this year. Yesterday, the Brexit campaigner and former UK Independence party leader released internal documents obtained from the bank, which stated it was concerned about his “xenophobic, chauvinistic and racist views” and believed maintaining his accounts posed a risk to the bank’s reputation.
Speaking on BBC radio 4’s Today programme, Knight said:
We have long operated in this country, under a regime which I will define as: ‘I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it,’ and I do find it somewhat uncomfortable to see a situation arise where because of somebody’s legitimate views, even though you may not agree with them, somehow has resulted in a service being withdrawn and they’re not being told about it. I mean, suppose a bank really does disagree with somebody’s behaviour, they should at least tell them. In this instance, what seems to have happened is that nothing was really fed in any way to the individual concerned.
We have freedom of speech in this country. So it is a bit of a grey area, and I do think it it is worthy of discussion and I think it’s something that has been coming for some time.
Her comments come after the City regulator said it had contacted the owner of Coutts bank amid a growing row over its decision to close Farage’s accounts, but told MPs that while lenders cannot discriminate against customers, it is ultimately up to firms to decide who to do business with.
The journalist and broadcaster Andrew Neil, chairman of The Spectator and presenter of The Andrew Neil Show on Channel 4, has described Coutts’ decision as a “new form of McCarthyism”. He said on BBC radio:
The bank acted like a kind of political Politburo rather than a bank, and they’ve got themselves into this terrible mess now, and the law will be changed as a result. As a result, the banks will not be able to discriminate against customers on political grounds.
Updated
- Russia fires 19 missiles
— Bloomberg (@business) July 20, 2023
- EU foreign ministers to discuss Ukraine
- Wheat soars on Russian threat to civilian grain ships in the Black Sea
Latest: https://t.co/kTzKuYM5Dm pic.twitter.com/xUBMgyKNhW
The rising price of wheat threatens to push food prices up again. Global grain prices had eased in recent months, but food inflation has stayed high in the UK and elsewhere. Many products are made from wheat, including flour and breakfast cereal.
Russia and Ukraine share of wheat imports 🌾 pic.twitter.com/8Kz8B5iAji
— World of Statistics (@stats_feed) July 20, 2023
Introduction: Wheat price jumps after Russia attacks Ukrainian grain stores; new rail strikes start across Britain
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Wheat prices have jumped on global markets after Russia this week pulled out of an agreement that guaranteed safe passage for ships carrying grain through the Black Sea.
Russia has carried out heavy air strikes on Ukraine’s grain stores and port infrastructure in the Black Sea port of Odesa.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence warned that all ships in the Black Sea heading to Ukrainian ports would be considered potential carriers of military cargo from today.
President Vladmir Putin said he would return to the grain deal if his demands are met, which include improving exports of Russia’s grain and fertiliser, and reconnecting Russia’s agricultural bank to a global payments system.
The Black Sea deal was brokered by the UN and Turkey in July last year amid a global food crisis exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February last year, which sent wheat prices sharply higher. Both countries are among the world’s top grain exporters.
Wheat prices rose more than 8% yesterday, the biggest daily rise since 2012, while corn prices climbed more than 5%. Wheat futures traded in Chicago rose a further 1% today.
Wheat Prices Soar for 3rd Day
— TRADING ECONOMICS (@tEconomics) July 20, 2023
Wheat futures in the US rose for a third straight day to a three-week high of $7.3 per bushel on Thursday, following an 8.5% rally the day before, which was the biggest gain since 2012, as mo...
More here: https://t.co/dc7GsOXCcX pic.twitter.com/AZL0I9YWXb
In Britain, a fresh wave of rail strikes has begun over job security and pay, with up to 20,000 RMT workers at 14 train companies joining picket lines all over the country today. They will strike for 24 hours today and again on Saturday, just as the summer holidays start and many families head off on their breaks.
There will also be strikes on the London Underground next week, in 10 days of transport disruption.
The Agenda
1.30pm BST: US Initial jobless claims for the week of 15 July
3pm BST: Eurozone Consumer confidence flash for July
3pm BST: Conference Board leading index for June; home sales
Updated
