The 49ers made a calculated decision before the 2021 draft. They were content with skipping the next two first rounds if it meant getting up to No. 3 where they could select North Dakota State QB Trey Lance. How that move will fare in the annals of 49ers history remains to be seen, but by looking at this year’s draft we can get an idea of what an alternate future without the trade might’ve looked like.
There are a million hypothetical realities we could hang around in, but lets reside in the one where the 49ers don’t take a first-round QB last year and their 2021 season plays out the same way – a 10-7 finish with a loss in the NFC championship game that nets them the No. 29 overall pick.
Part of the justification for moving up last year was the presumed weakness of the QB class in 2022. There’s no consensus top signal caller and there’s a very real chance no QB gets taken in the top 10. The 49ers might’ve actually been able to hang around at No. 29 and get a QB, but that player wouldn’t have been nearly the prospect Lance was.
Even a move up wouldn’t have allowed them to fetch a player close to Lance’s caliber. And at that point are they moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo still? There are so many questions that arise in this reality.
Getting away from the QB position though, who might the 49ers have been eyeing late in the first round this year?
USA TODAY Sports issued a first-round mock draft that shows a slew of options that would’ve fit in San Francisco.
Their No. 29 pick, which now belongs to Kansas City via Miami, is used on Penn State wide receiver Jahan Dotson. He’s a shifty, smooth athlete who drew an Emmanuel Sanders comparison from NFL Media’s Lance Zierlein. That surely would’ve made sense forr the 49ers, especially if the Deebo Samuel saga was still shaking out the way it has.
The Chiefs also hold the 30th pick where they took another player who would’ve fit with the 49ers. Michigan defensive back Daxton Hill is a do-everything DB who’s athletic enough to play deep and good enough in coverage to move into the box. He could’ve conceivably been their slot corner or starting strong safety with a move to free safety in the post-Jimmie Ward era.
Florida cornerback Kaiir Elam is Cincinnati’s selection at No. 31, and he may have been able to find a starting role right away in a 49ers CB room that’s looking for some long-term stability. And at No. 32 the Lions (via the Rams) snag Georgia safety Lewis Cine who checks all the boxes of a Day 1 starting NFL safety.
The handful of picks that go ahead of No. 29 in the USA TODAY mock paint the picture for a possible trade up scenario for San Francisco.
Purdue DE George Karlaftis is taken No. 28, one spot ahead of the 49ers’ original pick. He racked up 14.5 sacks in three seasons with the Boilermakers and brings the size to move inside or outside in the 49ers’ defensive front.
At No. 27 it’s UConn defensive tackle Travis Jones. He’s the type of player on the interior who would immediately offer a replacement for DJ Jones while improving San Francisco’s depth on the defensive interior.
The 26th selection belongs to Tennessee, and they scoop up Boston College OL Zion Johnson. He’s an experienced guard who projects as a Day 1 starter at either guard spot. That’s certainly something San Francisco will hope to find on Day 2 this year and might’ve been worth moving up for had they owned their own first-round pick.
While all of these options surely would’ve helped the 49ers improve some areas of their roster, those upgrades pale in comparison to the one Trey Lance could offer under center. That’s why San Francisco was comfortable mortgaging this year’s first round and next year’s first round. They believe Lance will put them in a better position to win Super Bowls than anyone they could’ve had with those picks they traded for him.
