You can’t move forward without learning from the mistakes in your past — and at the same time, the New Orleans Saints made some good decisions and did enough things well to end the 2023 season with a winning record. That can’t be overlooked (though it can certainly be overrated, which we’ll get to in a bit).
So with the calendar turning over to 2024, we’re taking a look back at the 2023 campaign to see what went right, what went wrong, and settle on the bottom line; as well as previewing what comes next for a Saints team that insists they’re closer to making some noise in the playoffs than many critics believe:
What went right?
The development of young pros like Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed was good to see — they each finished inside the top-five for second-year wide receivers in yardage, and Shaheed specifically earned all sorts of postseason awards for his work on special teams. Having a pair of talented wide receivers should make life easy for any quarterback, and Derek Carr went to them often. Time and again they came through for him.
It took much longer than it should have (more on that soon) but Carr’s year ended on a high note. He led the league in touchdown passes through the final six weeks. He finished the year with the sixth-best completion percentage, tenth-most touchdown passes, and tied for the third-best interceptions rate. He ranked inside the top-ten in both passer rating and adjusted net yards per pass attempt. It was far from perfect, and it was often dispiriting, but the Saints got what they wanted from Carr by the end of the year.
Defensively, the Saints bet big on their secondary, and for much of the year it came through. The defense doubled, nearly tripled, its interceptions total after changing position coaches in the offseason. Marshon Lattimore went down with an injury for the final seven games and they only allowed two 300-yard passers down the stretch. Paulson Adebo bounced back well at cornerback and journeymen like Isaac Yiadom and Johnathan Abram ended up playing critical roles on the back end.
What went wrong?
Let’s keep it going with the defense, because they had too many problems for a unit that should have carried the team. Dennis Allen got everything he wanted in 2023: his own assistant coaches, his own draft picks, his own personnel. And what did the Saints have to show for it? They couldn’t get after the passer (finishing with the fourth-worst sacks total and sacks rate) or stop the run (ending up with the 11th-most rushing yards allowed per carry and per game). Allen revamped the defensive line with an entirely new interior rotation and another top-50 draft pick at the edge and he didn’t have much to show for it. They have to be better and control the line of scrimmage.
Offensively, well: let’s talk about the offensive line. Doug Marrone has not been as-advertised when Allen made him his very first hire two years ago. Trevor Penning was a liability to start the season at left tackle and progressed so slowly it was easier just to bench him than try to work around him. There are too many early-round draft picks and lucrative extensions invested in the line for it to be playing this poorly.
The Saints averaged the second-fewest rushing yards per attempt in the league, partly because of the poor performance up front. But the blockers are just part of the equation. They lacked explosive playmakers in the backfield with Taysom Hill providing most of the big plays. Alvin Kamara has slowed down year after year and neither of the big offseason acquisitions (Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller) made a consistently positive impact. They need to go back to the drawing-board here.
And a quick word on special teams. While the coverage units did well to allow the second-fewest punt return yards and eighth-lowest kick return yards, the Saints didn’t do a great job kicking themselves. Blake Grupe was a bottom-10 kicker on field goals (81.1%). While Lou Hedley did well placing punts inside the 20-yard line (41.3% of them, eighth-most; he tied for the ninth-best touchback rate) he averaged the fewest yards per punt in the league (43). That’s making life hard on the coverage team with very little room for error.
And what's the bottom line?
This is blunt, but stay with me: the Saints weren’t good enough to make the playoffs this year. That’s your bottom line. Dennis Allen had a mandate to get this team back to the postseason and he couldn’t get the job done. He had every advantage: the easiest schedule and healthiest roster in the league, his own choice of assistant coaches and draft picks and free agent signings, and all he had to show for it was his first winning season in five years as a head coach.
It’s disappointing. The Saints were the biggest underachievers in the league this season. Sure, excuses can be made for Allen and his team, and general manager Mickey Loomis is hard at work doing just that — arguing that Allen just needs more experience on the job than he got in two years with the Saints and three with the Raiders a decade ago, and that Carr needs a system that’s better suited to his skills. There’s some merit in that, but not much, and not enough for a serious organization to bring back Allen and his crew of underachievers. At a time when better coaches than Allen are looking for work, Loomis and Saints leadership are comfortable settling for less. That’s highly concerning for fans who invest so much of their time and money supporting this team.
So what comes next?
The Saints are not going to look much different in 2024. Most of the starting lineup is returning on both sides of the ball, as is much of the coaching staff, though a much-needed search for a new offensive coordinator is still underway. New Orleans is short on draft picks and salary cap resources to totally revamp anything on offense or defense. Derek Carr will start at quarterback. Many of the same numbers — 94, 56, and 32, but maybe not 23 — are going to be out there leading the defense. The Saints are hoping to change just enough things to turn nine wins into ten or eleven.
We’ll see how that strategy works out for them. They struggled to compete with teams that achieved winning records and reach the postseason. Anything can happen when the playoffs kick off, but the Saints are a tough sell. Their schedule is looking very winnable again in 2024 (despite matchups with playoff teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Dallas Cowboys) but with the same underachievers leading the team and making decisions, it’s fair to wonder just how far they can really go. You’ve got to crawl before you can walk, and the Saints must qualify for the playoffs before they can try to convince anyone they can compete for another Super Bowl title.
