With five days to go before the Iowa caucus, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley will participate in the final Republican primary debate before the contests begin.
The stage will have notably fewer candidates given that many opponents have dropped out of the race, while others – such as businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie – failed to qualify.
As has been the case with every other Republican presidential primary debate, former president Donald Trump will not be on the dais as he has refused to participate – citing his dominant position in the polls.
This means that despite her slight rise, Ms Haley will not be able to directly confront Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis will not able to push back on all of the barbs Mr Trump has lobbed his way.
For the most part, these debates have been exercises in futility given the firm grip that Mr Trump continues to hold on at least half of the Republican electorate . Both candidates have to clear many obstacles to have a shot at winning the GOP nomination.
Here’s what to watch for in the final debate in Des Moines:
Dealing with Donald Trump
As much as the two candidates may want to pretend he doesn’t exist, Mr Trump cannot be ignored.
Since the last 2023 debate, Colorado’s Supreme Court has ruled that Mr Trump is ineligible to appear on the 2024 ballot. He has also said that immigrants are “poisoning the blood” of the country and called for his opponents to rot in hell in a Christmas message. On Tuesday, his lawyer tried to argue to the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit that a former president could not be subject to criminal prosecution if he ordered the assassination of a political rival.
Typically, instead of using his legal challenges to make a positive case for their own candidacy, his Republican opponents have repeatedly wound up defending him in the most absurd ways possible, which does not make an affirmative case for their candidacy.
They do this despite the fact they have little chance of winning over his voters. Mr DeSantis has hinted that he would find a way to remove President Joe Biden from Florida’s ballot. This is about as unlikely to happen as an impeachment and conviction for Mr Biden in Congress. But it displays the Republican candidates’ no-win situation with Mr Trump.
How they dance around Mr Trump will reveal much about the current state of the GOP’s relationship with Mr Trump and his base.
Can Nikki Haley regroup?
The former South Carolina governor has always done well in debates.
Mr Ramaswamy’s targeting of her often backfired, as was the case when he mentioned her daughter used TikTok. She pushed back against former vice-president Mike Pence criticising her for not supporting a nationwide 15-week abortion ban, noting this could not pass in Congress. That earned her plaudits, the endorsement of the Koch network and New Hampshire’s governor Chris Sununu, to say nothing of the cash that had previously flowed to Mr DeSantis.
One CNN/University of New Hampshire poll showed her within single digits of Mr Trump in New Hampshire, but a Boston Globe/Suffolk University/USA Today poll showed her down 19 points against Mr Trump in the state.
But Ms Haley’s comments in New Hampshire where she refused to say that slavery caused the Civil War, has caused a firestorm of criticism. Even Mr Trump characterised her words as “bulls***”. She has also faced criticism for shifting positions and not being strong enough on abortion.
In addition, questions remain as to whether she can actually pose a legitimate threat to Mr Trump when she does not beat him in a single poll. Mr DeSantis, whose campaign flatlined almost as soon as it launched, has attacked her on television and in previous debates.
Expect Mr DeSantis to ask her point blank whether she would accept being Mr Trump’s vice-president.
Trump’s reaction
He will not be on the stage. But Mr Trump can never resist being in on the action.
He consistently attacked Mr DeSantis before the governor announced his candidacy, effectively killing Mr DeSantis’s campaign when it launched.
Now, Mr Trump has taken to regularly attacking Ms Haley. Whether this has the same effect is an open question. Ms Haley has tried to dance around directly attacking Mr Trump, given that she served in his administration as US ambassador to the United Nations. Mr DeSantis for his part has tried to attack Mr Trump a little more directly in recent weeks.
But Mr Trump will likely try to swat down ideas that he is considering Ms Haley for vice-president.
And he will likely mock Mr DeSantis’s dismally low poll numbers. This is to say nothing about the fact the debate will take place on CNN, a network he regularly derides as “fake news”. All of this makes the debate prime picking for posts on Truth Social.
