The Bills’ rushing attack will be different this season both physically and philosophically.
Physically, Devin Singletary — the team’s leading rusher every year since he was drafted in 2019 — left for the Texans in free agency. And philosophically, Josh Allen — Buffalo’s second-leading rusher over that same stretch — has been asked by general manager Brandon Beane to dial back his aggressive play style.
In response, the front office added Damien Harris and Latavius Murray to the running back room a year after adding James Cook in the draft and months after trading for Nyheim Hines. None of these moves came at a particularly high cost — this offense is centered around the passing attack, after all — but they are important considering the number of opportunities Singletary’s departure opens up in addition to the possibility that Allen heeds Beane’s words.
The Bills 196 vacated carries are the ninth-most in the NFL, according to 4for4 — Singletary accounts for 177 of those and Zack Moss and Duke Johnson make up the rest. That total equates to 67.3% of the team’s running back carries, which is the sixth-highest percentage in the league. Since 2020 — Allen’s breakout year — Buffalo has ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in rush rate (roughly 40% each season). So while the Bills may not run the ball all that much relative to the rest of the league, available rushing opportunities in a high-scoring, hyper-efficient offense present great value for whoever ends up handling them.
Buffalo’s offensive line finished last season ranked 22nd by PPF and the addition of Conner McGovern only moved the unit up one spot. Still, only the Bears (5.4) averaged more yards per carry as a team than the Bills (5.2).
Here’s how things might shake out in the backfield in Western New York.
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James Cook Fantasy Football Outlook
Buffalo spent a late second-round pick on Cook in 2022. Though he was never heavily involved at Georgia, his production profile spoke for itself: Cook averaged at least 6.1 yards per carry every year of his collegiate career. His best season came as a senior when he finished with 728 yards and seven touchdowns on 113 carries — he finished second on the team in each category behind Zamir White. He also flashed his pass-catching chops in the College Football Playoff en route to a national title.
Once he got to Buffalo, though, Cook’s involvement was wildly inconsistent and his career got off to an inauspicious start when he fumbled on his first carry. He had quite a few games with five or fewer touches while he was used often as both a runner and receiver in others. It made him frustrating to rely on week-to-week.
Cook finished with 89 carries for 507 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns to go along with 21 catches on 32 targets for 180 yards and another score in 16 games played. Solid, but nothing special. Six other first-year players finished with more yards on the ground, four of whom were drafted after Cook. But the former Bulldog inspired confidence with his 5.7 yards per carry average and an average depth of target of 2.4 yards, sixth-best among qualified running backs. As the lead back on the depth chart, Cook should be in line for somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 carries his sophomore season.
Josh Allen Fantasy Football Outlook
Allen ran more than he ever has in 2022. In one fewer game than the previous season, his rushing attempts rose from 122 to 124, his yardage fell from 763 to 762 and his touchdowns improved from six to seven. Allen also fumbled a career-high eight times, though he only lost two.
Buffalo’s franchise quarterback took 33 sacks last year, his most since 2019 and the second-most of his career. Heading into his sixth season, hits — and injuries — are starting to add up and Allen acknowledged he has to be better about picking his spots.
"At the end of the day, it's just being smart with the football, smart with the body, and understanding situational football really better,” he said in a press conference in April. “If there's a third down where we got to get it, I'm going to do whatever it takes to get it. But if it's a second and 10, I got nine yards to go, no need to put the shoulder down and try it.”
So Allen’s number of rushing attempts will likely stay in the 100-120 range, but he apparently plans to be more judicious about when he puts his body on the line. That shouldn’t affect his production all that much, though perhaps the backs handle more of the goal-line work.
Damien Harris Fantasy Football Outlook
Harris opted to stay in the division after a down year with the Patriots and inked a one-year deal to join the Bills. He took a backseat to Rhamondre Stevenson in 2022 and finished with 462 yards and three scores on 106 carries. Those numbers were roughly half of what Harris accomplished in 2021 when he finished as the RB14 with career-bests in carries (202), rushing yards (929) and rushing touchdowns (15).
Harris’ yards per carry fell from 5.0 in 2020 to 4.6 in 2021 to 4.4 last year. It’s possible he pushes Cook for the team lead in carries but it’s more likely he eats up some of the early-down and short-yardage work as the second fiddle in a committee. Harris could be looking at eight or so carries per game in one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses. Since he’s essentially a zero in the passing game, any fantasy value he adds will likely come in the red zone, where he found paydirt 13 times in 2021.
Buffalo Bills Rushing Attack Summary
Evidently, the breakdown in Buffalo is a bit murky considering there are three viable rushers between Cook, Allen and Harris. And that’s not to mention Murray, who just had his best season since 2017, and Hines, last year’s mid-season acquisition who’s a pass-catching and kick return specialist. The good news is that the Bills’ running backs are heavily discounted because of the lack of clarity. Cook is coming off the board at RB29 and Harris is going a few rounds later at RB37. One of them will be a value, and I lean in Cook’s direction because of the upside he presents as a pass-catcher. Still, I don’t hate Harris at his current price but just know he’ll be heavily reliant on touchdowns — good thing there’s plenty to go around in Buffalo. It feels like the real value here is Allen, though. He’s being drafted as the QB3 behind Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts after three straight years as the QB1 or QB2. Mahomes will do more with his arm and Hurts will do more with his legs but Allen is the best of both worlds. Running with more caution and perhaps less often doesn’t mean he’s going to abandon part of what makes him so special.
Editor’s Note: Welcome to the second annual installment of “The Replacements,” an SI Fantasy series focused on vacated volume that projects how teams will replace production year-to-year. This offseason, we’re analyzing the six teams with the highest percentage of available targets and the six teams with the highest percentage of available carries heading into 2023.
