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Mayfield Village, Ohio-based, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is an insurance holding company that provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, business-related general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services. Valued at a market cap of $140.4 billion, the company is expected to announce its fiscal Q4 earnings results on Wednesday, Jan. 22.
Ahead of this event, analysts expect the insurance company to report a profit of $3.43 per share, up 15.9% from $2.96 per share in the year-ago quarter. The company has a solid track record of consistently beating Wall Street's bottom-line estimates in the last four quarters. In Q3, the company’s adjusted EPS of $3.58 outpaced the consensus estimates by a notable 5.3% and more than doubled from the year-ago quarter.
For fiscal 2024, analysts expect PGR to report an EPS of $13.51, up significantly from $6.11 in fiscal 2023. .
Over the past 52 weeks, shares of PGR have rallied 49.1%, significantly surpassing both the S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 23.3% rise and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLF) 28.9% return over the same period.
Shares of PGR closed up 1.5% following its better-than-expected Q3 earnings release on Oct. 15. In addition to exceeding Wall Street’s adjusted earnings estimates, the company’s adjusted revenue of $19.4 billion outpaced the consensus estimate and improved 24.9% from the year-ago quarter, driven by a 25% increase in net premiums written to $19.5 billion. The combined ratio improved to 89%, indicating strong underwriting profitability, while the 15% growth in personal insurance policies in force reflected robust demand for its products. Despite incurring $563 million in catastrophe losses due to Hurricane Helena, the company’s solid operating performance and favorable financial metrics boosted investor confidence.
Wall Street analysts are moderately optimistic about PGR’s stock, with a "Moderate Buy" rating overall. Among 21 analysts covering the stock, 13 recommend "Strong Buy," two suggest "Moderate Buy," and six indicate “Hold.” The average analyst price target for PGR is $284 indicating an 18.5% potential upside from the current levels.
