The Jets will have a new quarterback this season, acquiring future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers in a trade with the Packers. The deal has huge fantasy implications for everyone in the Jets offense, from its backfield to the wide receivers and tight ends. Heck, it could even make Greg Zuerlein a better fantasy kicker!
But what does this all mean for Rodgers?
Our initial thoughts are all positive because, well, he’s Aaron Rodgers. After all, he’s been a fantasy superstar for most of his career, including MVP campaigns in two of the last three years. He’ll also be motivated to prove that his 2022 statistical struggles were a fluke, the result of a new offensive coordinator, the loss of Davante Adams and inexperienced receivers playing bigger roles.
Tom Horak/USA TODAY Sports
And as we all know, a motivated Rodgers is usually a productive Rodgers.
The folks at FanDuel have Rodgers’ passing yards prop at 3,950.5 (-112), which is 255.5 more yards than he had last season but 256.5 fewer yards than he had thrown for in the previous two seasons. His touchdown passes prop is at 29.5 (-112), which is 3.5 more than he had last season but 13 fewer than he averaged in his previous two years.
The argument for Rodgers exceeding those totals is obvious. He has much better weapons in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson to go along with his former Packer pals Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, at least compared to his 2022 cast of characters in Green Bay. Rodgers had also surpassed 3,950.5 passing yards in his five previous full seasons, though he had gone over 30 touchdown passes in just two of his previous four full campaigns. That includes the 2018 and ’19 seasons, when Rodgers finished with 25 and 26 touchdown passes, respectively.
On the flip side, Rodgers is entering his age-39 season (40 in December). During the Super Bowl era, only Tom Brady (six times), Warren Moon, Brett Favre, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees have thrown for more than 3,950 yards in a single season at 39 or older. That’s five quarterbacks in the last 56 years.
However, all but two have occurred in the last six years.
In the category of touchdown passes, only Brady (three times), Moon, Favre and Brees have surpassed the mark of 29.5 at 39 years old or older. If we dig into the history of the Jets quarterbacks (turn your heads, fans), only one has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in a single season. That was Joe Namath, way back in 1967. What’s more, they’ve had just one other signal-caller (Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2015) throw for more than 3,900 yards.
That list includes Favre, who was also in his age-39 season when he was traded to the Jets in 2008. He threw for just 3,472 yards with 22 touchdowns and 22 picks.
The good news for Rodgers is that with 17 games on the schedule, he’ll have to average just 232.4 passing yards per game to go over the 3,950.5 mark (assuming he doesn’t miss time). While he averaged just 217.4 yards through the air last season, Rodgers averaged more than 232.4 passing yards in every other season of his NFL career as a starter.
Assuming Rodgers gets in at least 16 games (he’s started at least 16 games in five straight years), chances are good he’ll go over 3,950.5 passing yards. However, I’d take the under on 29.5 touchdown passes. Remember, only Fitzpatrick has had more than 30 touchdown passes in a single season as a member of the Jets. Vinny Testaverde was close with 29 in 1998, and Namath threw for 26 touchdowns in just 14 games way back in 1967.
With a projection of around 4,000 passing yards and 25-28 touchdown passes, I have Rodgers ranked as the No. 14 fantasy quarterback heading into 2023 fantasy drafts. While I’ll no longer bet against him (like I did in 2020), I wouldn’t expect him to post MVP totals.
