Huge swathes of southern and eastern England have joined the capital and Kent in being given a 'stay at home' order, introduced at 00.01 on Boxing Day, amid fears the new strain of Covid-19 is tearing through the country.
The tiers will be reviewed tomorrow, Dec 30, but it is unlikely any restrictions will be eased.
On Dec 19, Boris Johnson unveiled a new Tier 4 for the capital and areas including Essex, Kent and Surrey in the wake of surging case rates - amounting to a combined population of more than 16 million - were put under this new highest lockdown level.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced the remaining areas of Essex and Surrey would be subject to Tier 4 restrictions, along with Oxfordshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, Sussex and most of Hampshire .
It has left more than 24m in people in England subject to Tier 4 restrictions in the run up to New Year.
Only the Isles of Scilly - with 2,224 inhabitants - remain in the lowest tier of restrictions.
On December 28, the UK has reached a daily record of Covid-19 infections, as Government statistics announced 41,385 new lab-confirmed cases. A further 357 people have died within 28 days of testing positive with the virus.
Following these record-breaking stats, Whitehall sources suggested as much as two-thirds of England could face the highest tier restrictions in the coming days. They added that "sizeable chunks"of the North and the Midlands expected to enter Tier 4 by the end of this week.
Investigations also continue into the new variant of coronavirus, believed to be 70 per cent more transmissible than the more common strains.
As case rates climb, areas with some of the loosest restrictions saw them tightened. Cornwall moved from Tier 1 to Tier 2, and the Isle of Wight from Tier 1 to Tier 3.
You can enter your postcode below to see which tier your area will now be under in the run up to the New Year.
Under the new Tier 4 rules residents are urged to stay at home, non-essential retail, indoor gyms and personal care services must close, travel between areas and abroad is restricted and people can only meet one person in an outdoor space.
Not only did the relaxation of rules around household mixing over Christmas not apply to Tier 4 areas, but for areas in the other Tiers mixing was allowed only on Christmas Day.
“When the virus changes its method of attack, we must change our method of defence,” said the Prime Minister at an emergency press conference in Downing Street alongside his chief scientific and medical advisers.
The latest tier update is as follows:
The areas in Tier 4
- Sussex
- Oxfordshire
- Suffolk
- Norfolk
- Cambridgeshire
- Waverley in Surrey
- Hampshire, including Portsmouth and Southampton but excluding New Forest
The areas in Tier 3
- Bristol
- Gloucestershire
- Somerset
- Swindon
- Isle of Wight
- New Forest in Hampshire
- Northamptonshire
- Cheshire
- Warrington
The areas in Tier 2
- Cornwall
- Herefordshire
Which areas are hardest hit?
Areas on the edges of the existing tiers are particularly vulnerable to rising case rates, with health officials warning that the new variant of the virus is "bleeding" across boundaries.
Hotspots of the mutation have been found in Cumbria and Devon, as well as across large parts of Sussex, Surrey, Essex and Norfolk.
Health officials are concerned that the exodus of large numbers of people from Tier 4 areas into the Midlands and the North has fuelled the spread.
Sir Patrick Vallance, chief scientific adviser, said cases were "everywhere" and signalled that restrictions are set to increase.
A Government source said: "We're concerned that some areas have had significant increases in case numbers as a result of the mutation."
Case rates in Mid Suffolk tripled in the space of a week - to 180 per 100,000, and by 175 per cent in West Suffolk - to 178.7 per 100,000.
In Cornwall rates more than tripled over a week to 67 per 100,000, and moved from Tier 1 to Tier 2.
Cases are also rising at speed in Eastbourne and Winchester (185 per cent) and Lewes in East Sussex (228 per cent).
Whitehall sources said there was now "a high chance" that the country would be placed into a third lockdown after Christmas. One said: "The expectation now is that we can get through Christmas, but after that the chances of a full lockdown in the New Year look pretty high."
Will there be a Tier 5?
A Whitehall source has indicated the possibility that parts of the UK could enter a new Tier 5 following the tier review tomorrow, Dec 30.
As the NHS is straining under the pressure of coronavirus and new variants of Covid-19 continue to spread, millions could be under Tier 5 come the new year.
The current Tier 4 Covid-19 rules don't appear to be working, according to a Whitehall source.
The Government's scientific advisers have reportedly urged Boris Johnson to tighten the highest restrictions, which may result in a new tier forming.
Why has the Government brought in Tier 4?
Cases rates are rising across the whole of England, but they have worryingly spiked in Tier 4 areas.
London is now the worst affected region in England, with a huge case rate of 585 per 100,000 in the week up to Dec 18, and this has essentially doubled on its rate of 243 in the week before.
Havering in East London is currently the worst affected borough in the capital and its case rate is double the London rate at 1187 weekly cases per 100,000.
Brentwood in Essex has the highest rate in England, with 1,111 new cases recorded in the seven days to Dec 23 - the equivalent of 1,442.5 cases per 100,000 people.
The case rate for the wider East of England stands at 411 per 100,000 while the South East stands at 379.5 per 100,000. By contrast the South West has just 127.7 cases per 100,000, with some areas in the region managing to stay under Tier 1 - but every English region is seeing cases rise.
A new, more contagious strain of coronavirus is partly to blame for the huge rises in the new Tier 4 areas.
The Government’s analysis suggests this new strain is 70 per cent more transmissible, though there is no evidence that it is more deadly or unable to be protected against by vaccines.
What are the new rules and how long will they last?
The tiers system will remain in place until March at the earliest, although the placement of an area in each tier will be reviewed every two weeks. The next review is Dec 30.
However, areas can move up tiers outside of the fortnightly review if urgent action is needed, as happened with London on Dec 19.
Following the introduction of Tier 4 restrictions, the Health Secretary has stated that the new rules could be in place until the vaccine has been rolled out, stating that the next couple of months will be an "enormous challenge".
What could change after Christmas?
More areas could change the tier in which they are currently under following a review on Dec 30. However, restrictions in some areas were toughened as early as Boxing Day in order to combat the spread of the new variant of the coronavirus, which has a large rise in cases in London and the South East.
Areas such as North Norfolk, Devon and Cumbria have all recorded rises in cases of the new variant.
How are tiers decided?
Decisions on tiers are made by ministers based on public health recommendations informed by the following factors:
-
Case detection rate (in all age groups and, in particular, among the over-60s);
- How quickly case rates are rising or falling;
- Positivity in the general population;
- Pressure on the NHS – including current and projected (3-4 weeks out) NHS capacity – including admissions, general/acute/ICU bed occupancy, staff absences; and
- Local context and exceptional circumstances such as a local but contained outbreak.
If these indicators are not improving, an area may be moved up a tier and if the trajectory improves, the area may move to a lower tier.
Will anything change now we have a vaccine?
In the wake of the news surrounding the approval of the Pfizer/ BioNTech vaccine, the Prime Minister addressed the previous three-tier system, acknowledging that the restrictions were “tough” but were nevertheless essential to “keep the virus under control”.
In this press conference on Dec 2, Mr Johnson said that he hoped areas could “come down the tiers” before the Easter holiday, before emphasising it is necessary that the restrictions stay in place alongside the vaccine.
He added: “For the time being you’ve got to take it that tiering will be a very, very important part of our campaign against coronavirus.”
Mr Johnson also shared that we still had "some months before all the most vulnerable are protected” and so, we must remain cautions, and not be "carried away with over optimism”.
He emphasised that the Government’s plan relies on the public's continued sacrifice “for those we love”.
During a press conference from Downing Street on Dec 16, Professor Chris Whitty commented on whether social distancing would end after the vulnerable receive their jabs, or if we would reach herd immunity before the vaccination programme ends.
The Chief Medical Officer shared that social distancing will remain in place after the vulnerable receive their vaccinations, as members of the public beyond this group will be a risk.
He said: “Population immunity will occur if we have vaccines that can reduce transmissions between people.” However, Professor Whitty shared he has a “high degree of confidence” that the jab will lower the risk of Covid-19 by a “large amount”.
It is not certain whether the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine will protect people against the new strain of coronavirus, although experts are positive that it will still be effective, and further studies will take place in order to gain a definitive result.
Ugur Sahin, the chief executive of BioNTech, said on Dec 22 that "we don't know at the moment if our vaccine is also able to provide protection against this new variant," but because the proteins on the variant are 99 per cent the same as the prevailing strains, BioNTech has "scientific confidence" in the vaccine.
However, the most recent figures follow concerns from scientific advisors who have warned that one million Covid-19 vaccinations a week will not be enough to bring the pandemic under control.
The director of the Wellcome Trust, Sir Jeremy Farrar, who advises Sage has said:
"We're not going to be free of this pandemic by February; this is now a human endemic infection.
If we do manage to hit the target of a million [vaccinated] a week, frankly I don't think that's enough to speed that up if we wanted to get the country covered."
Read more: How long will it take for life to return to normal after the Covid vaccine rollout?
What about the rest of the UK?
Mainland Scotland entered Tier 4 on Boxing Day after Nicola Sturgeon announced the harshest level of restrictions would last for three weeks. Travel between other UK areas is now banned, and Scottish schools will close for an additional fortnight, until Jan 18, with online lessons beginning on Jan 11.
The whole of Wales moved into a full national lockdown on Dec 20.The nation had already introduced a four-tier traffic light lockdown system on Dec 14 as cases continued to rise. The First Minister said Wales entered full lockdown as a result of a "sustained rise in coronavirus". This news came as Covid patients in Welsh hospitals surpassed 1,900 for the first time during the pandemic. Secondary schools have also been closed.
Northern Ireland re-introduced a complete lockdown on Boxing Day. These restrictions are expected to last for six weeks and include the closure of non-essential retail and hospitality venues without takeaway services.
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