The government is poised to give the go-ahead to extra runways at the UK’s busiest airports, Heathrow and Gatwick. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to back expansion at the two biggest London airports, as well as increasing capacity at Luton. But such moves would cause controversy – with residents, environmentalists and Labour politicians.
As travel correspondent of The Independent, I’ve been reporting on airport expansion plans since the last century – here are the key questions and answers.
To put things in context – how significant is this?
Very. London is the world capital of aviation, with far more flights and passengers than any other city in the world. But that has been achieved with airport runways that are barely changed since the Second World War. Heathrow is the busiest two-runway airport in the world, and Gatwick – just around the M25 and down a bit – is the world’s busiest single-runway airport.
When things are working, they are testament to extracting a quart from a pint pot. Heathrow has landings and take-offs every 80 seconds or so, while air-traffic control at Gatwick can get one plane down and another taking off every 65 seconds. But when things go, as they say in aviation, Tango Uniform, plans unravel very quickly.
Over Christmas and the New Year bad weather caused many hundreds of cancellations affecting tens of thousands of passengers. We will probably see the same later this week with the predicted “weather bomb”. Build more capacity, get more resilience is the mantra from Heathrow and Gatwick.
Can you bring us up to speed on where we are with airport expansion?
Older readers may recall that David Cameron, when prime minister, commissioned Sir Howard Davies to decide on how best to increase airport capacity. A decade ago Sir Howard said a third runway at Heathrow was the way forward, at which point nothing happened – partly because one-time prime minister Boris Johnson had earlier vowed to lie down in front of the bulldozers if anyone tried to expand Heathrow, and also because Covid wiped out aviation for a couple of years.
With a limit of 1,315 aircraft movements each day, further growth at Heathrow can come mainly from airlines using larger aircraft and leaving fewer seats empty.
A Heathrow spokesperson said: “Growing the economy means adding capacity at the UK’s hub airport which is full. That’s why we’re planning to unlock capacity by improving and upgrading our existing infrastructure, while also looking at potential options to deliver a third runway at Heathrow in line with strict tests on carbon, noise and air quality.”
Meanwhile Gatwick was told, “you can’t have a second runway” – but then did a bit of recalculating and decided it could turn its standby runway into a live runway and increase capacity by about 50 per cent. To avoid highly complex air-traffic control issues, it would only be used for take-offs – and then only by smaller planes. Gatwick says putting the standby runway into permanent use “will create 14,000 jobs and generate £1bn a year in economic benefits”.
Luton is hoping almost to double passenger numbers while using its single runway by adding more terminal space and taxiways; Make Luton Great Again could be the refrain.
All of these projects will be self-financed, although opponents of expansion say they will all require improved public transport for which taxpayers will foot the bill.
What have ministers previously said?
Since 2014 Labour has had four tests for airport expansion:
Presumably expansion plans are unpopular with local residents and the green lobby?
Environmentalists are appalled at the prospect of higher emissions, noise and congestion. Any attempt to go ahead with expansion will face monumental court challenges – whether on the grounds of many more people being subject to extra noise, or the effect of the inevitable increase in aviation.
The government will need to make a range of promises, most of which will be contingent on new technology that doesn’t actually exist yet. All that the 2024 Labour manifesto said on the subject was that it would “secure the UK aviation industry’s long-term future, including through promoting sustainable aviation fuels, and encouraging airspace modernisation”.
Paul McGuinness, chair of the No 3rd Runway Coalition, said because Gatwick and Luton’s expansion projects are “oven ready”, Heathrow expansion had been rendered uneconomic. “There will be no yield from investing in it and no carbon budget left for it,” he said.
Campaigners will also say that many of the domestic flights currently linking London with northern England and Scotland could be replaced by trains. Today a total of 18 British Airways flights will link Heathrow and Manchester. But the castration of the HS2 rail project makes a significant move from air to rail look questionable.
Stewart Wingate, chief executive of Gatwick says: “We have put forward a strong and compelling case focused around making best use of our existing infrastructure, minimising noise and environmental impacts and meeting the four tests for airport expansion set by Labour.”
Suppose they do get the go ahead – when will passengers notice an improvement?
For Gatwick, by the end of the decade. And with a relatively small bill of £2.2bn, the idea will be that extra flights will pay for the investment.
For Heathrow, there is no chance of a new runway – and Terminal 6 – being built before 2030. And the bad news is that the airport wants current passengers to pay for future expansion, which will cost at least £14bn. The airlines are furious – particularly British Airways, which would also lose its majority holding of slots at Heathrow. They say the Saudi, Qatari and private equity owners should stump up the cash.
Luton plans would see a gradual increase in passenger numbers to 2041.
Were all three projects to come to fruition, the capacity of London’s airport system would rise by about 50 per cent to around 240 million annually by the 2040s.
Airports outside south-east England have loads of spare capacity. Why not just fly to and from those locations?
The government could use Air Passenger Duty – the tax on departing from a UK airport – to encourage people to use airports such as Bristol, Birmingham, Manchester and Newcastle. Increasing APD for flying from London and cutting rates at airports outside South East England would encourage some passengers to switch.
Ultimately, though, London remains by far the strongest attraction for overseas business and leisure travellers, and many people will pay a premium to fly in and out of Heathrow.
