The assassination attempt of a divisive figure, a foreign war threatening to take centre stage, the incumbent president withdrawing his candidacy and endorsing the vice-president: the 2024 US presidential race is starting to take on an eerie resemblance to that of 1968.
In that year, Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson shocked Americans when he announced he would not be seeking another term. His exit threw the Democratic campaign into chaos, which only deepened after the party’s leading candidate Robert F. Kennedy was killed in June. (In this respect, Donald Trump literally dodged a bullet.)
Faced with little time to nominate a successor, the Democrats ultimately turned to Johnson’s vice-president, Hubert Humphrey, who was unable to defeat the Republican nominee Richard Nixon in November.
This failure to secure the presidency led to a significant spell in the wilderness for the Democrats – the party managed just one term in the White House between 1968 and 1992. So, they would do well to learn from the events of 1968’s fateful campaign.
The key issue facing the Democrats in 1968 was the Vietnam war. A battle for the soul of the Democratic party ensued as hawks and doves within the party fought tooth and nail over American foreign policy in south-east Asia.
For his part, Johnson suspended the ongoing bombing campaign in North Vietnam indefinitely and worked to begin peace talks with the North Vietnamese. But political intrigue scuppered these efforts, and the Democrats faced fierce division both within the party and across the country over Johnson’s handling of the war.
Protest scenes had harmed the Democratic image over the previous three years, as protesters directed chants of “Hey hey LBJ, how many kids did you kill today?” at the president.
With American-backed conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza currently ongoing and proving controversial, the Democrats would do well not to be sucked into prolonged debates on this aspect of foreign policy.
Students and young voters have actively, but peacefully, protested on college campuses and at Democratic primary elections over the Biden administration’s continued support for Israel’s war in Gaza. And there were reports of disillusioned young Democrats staying away from the polls in the presidential primaries.
This could prove damaging as the youth vote will be crucial in this election. In the last US presidential election, Biden won significantly more millennial and gen Z votes than Trump.
Kamala Harris, who is highly likely to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee, has already taken steps to engage youth voters by invoking British pop singer Charli XCX in her campaign announcement after receiving Charli’s apparent endorsement. But it remains to be seen whether this will be effective.
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The Vietnam war loomed large in the background in 1968. However, the Democrats also failed to communicate their domestic policies effectively to the mass audience.
The creation of civil rights legislation, key healthcare for under-insured Americans in Medicare and Medicaid, and dozens of other social welfare policies should have been key to an election push. But, despite having one of the most impressive records of legislative success in modern political history, the Democrats were unable to take advantage.
Instead of shaping events, events shaped the party. The Democratic National Convention was a public relations disaster. Anti-war protestors outside the Chicago venue were beaten by police and journalists were left bloodied while trying to cover the events.
Intense negative publicity over the Democrat’s failure to control the crowd followed and Nixon emerged as the “law and order” candidate. The party was unprepared for the fallout and events spiralled out of control.
Organisation is key. This time round, the Democrats must be aware of their successes, focus on domestic policy, and show unity at August’s Convention. Should the party align behind Harris, then the vice-presidential pick will be key.
Humphrey’s eventual running mate, Edmund Muskie, was a moderate senator from Maine who simply did not inspire the American public. Harris has many potential choices, with Kentucky’s Andy Beshear and Arizona’s Mark Kelly two key frontrunners from more conservative states who could help inspire the electorate.
Read more: Five possible vice-presidents and what they might say about the Democrat ticket
Beware your opponent
Like Humphrey in 1968, a tricky opponent stands in the way of Harris if she receives the nomination in August. Nixon, who had earned the nickname “Tricky Dick” for his controversial vote-grabbing tactics in the 1950 senatorial election, famously interfered with Johnson’s attempts to start meaningful peace talks with North Vietnam.
Sensing a shift in voter intention as the 1968 campaign wore on, Nixon used diplomatic back channels to suggest peace talks stood a better chance with him in charge. This slammed the door shut on any hope of a Democrat recovery. The party was also unable to properly unify behind a single candidate, and gave Nixon the advantage with their divergence.
Trump represents an even more difficult challenge. Having proven his ability to sloganise, disparage opponents and disrupt the political process many times over in 2016 and 2020, the Trump campaign will undoubtedly pull out all the stops to discredit the eventual Democratic nominee.
With this in mind, the Democrats must quickly back a strong candidate. The signs so far are positive, with potential nominees like Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer signalling their support for Harris.
The Democrats face an uphill battle to maintain control of the White House. But there are signs that they have learned the lessons of their 1968 campaign, and have a path forward to a potential victory in November.
Ben Quail is currently a Fulbright Scholar Award holder for the academic year 2024-25, visiting the University of Texas at Austin.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
