It's not just Joe Biden's age. It's not just his debate debacle, which made the president look slow, old, foggy. It's what's next that truly worries even Biden's biggest supporters.
- They fear that if three years as president took this much of a toll, Biden could look, act, sound and feel much worse at 86, after five more years. And Democrats would be devastated if Donald Trump won because voters concluded Biden's time has passed.
Why it matters: Top Democrats worry Biden's situation hits too close to home for too many to ignore. Most people have watched a loved one decline — at first slowly, then dramatically — as they hit their mid-80s. These Democrats fear the party, not just Biden, would pay for ignoring this.
A Democratic official talked us through the gentle approach to getting Biden to end his run on his terms. This official, who demanded anonymity for self-evident reasons, said Biden's sister, Valerie Biden, and longtime friend, Ted Kaufman, should make this case to the president:
- "This is not about him submitting to the will of others yelling at him that he failed. Joe Biden is too proud for that argument. He will not be dragged off the stage," said the official, who is outside the White House and campaign.
- "The goal is to let him walk off the stage. He came; he saw; he conquered. He wanted to get rid of Trump for the country; he wanted to prepare America for the future; and he wanted to help nurture the next generation to be a transitional president."
"He can say to himself, in all honesty: All three have now been accomplished," the strategist continued. "He got rid of Trump; helped prepare America through his legislation for the future; and, under his tenure, a generation of new Democrats have emerged."
- "You've got to give him the dignity to walk off on his own. The idea that it would happen in the immediate aftermath is clueless."
We can't stress enough how many Democrats, including top congressional leaders and longtime Biden friends, are pushing for this conversation to happen this weekend.
- Lauren Hitt, senior spokesperson for the Biden campaign, told us: "The president is absolutely not dropping out."
Behind the scenes: Some Biden insiders argue the debate disaster was more of a voice issue than an age issue.
- "We did practices at night, but we cut all practices short to save his failing voice," a source familiar with Biden's debate prep at Camp David told us. "The voice was a concern all week."
Between the lines: Two things can be and are true at once. Biden, in public and private settings, is usually lucid, deeply engaged and fully capable. That's the consensus view, even of Democrats who think he shouldn't have run again because of his age.
- At the same time, they see what America saw in Atlanta on Thursday night: a president who can seem foggy, episodically confused, prone to tripping over words, or losing a thought mid-sentence.
- White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates said: "Not only does the President perform around the clock, but he maintains a schedule that tires younger aides, including foreign trips into active war zones, and he proves he has that capacity by delivering tangible results that pundits had declared impossible."
Democrats tell us privately that there's a perceptible increase in the number of times today, versus three years ago, where the signs of old age show. Hence their concern that this will only get worse.
- Yes, Trump is almost as old (78 vs. Biden's 81) — and often says weird, confusing, just plain wrong things in public settings.
- But polls show age is less of an issue for him, partly because his voters love the hyperbole and histrionics.
The other side: When asked for comment, the White House and the Biden campaign each offered an official to talk on the record about how the president's debate performance doesn't tell the full story.
1. Brett McGurk, White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, has worked closely with the past four presidents. He's constantly in the Situation Room with Biden, and gets the president's comments and questions back from his nightly prep packet.
- "If what is being written now about President Biden were true, history would be very different," McGurk told us in a half-hour phone interview. He said Biden's "strategic empathy," wisdom, experience and familiarity with the globe from his years as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee are "an incredible national asset."
- McGurk has seen Biden direct real-time operations for up to five hours at a stretch. And after the terrorist attack on Israel on Oct. 7, McGurk was there for a conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, when Biden was "reasoning in a Socratic way and talking them off the ledge."
- Meeting with special forces commanders in 2022 before the U.S. killing of Hajji Abdullah, global leader of ISIS, Biden offered a prescient warning about suicide vests. "He has lived these issues," McGurk said.
2. Molly Murphy — a pollster for the Biden campaign, and president of Impact Research — set up a focus group in a Midwest battleground with about 60 swing voters, who used dials to show their mid-debate reactions. She says that when it came to deciding who to vote for, participants showed they were more concerned about the candidates' substance than style.
- "They did not think the president had a great performance," Murphy conceded in a phone interview.
- But she said Biden came out ahead when voters were asked who should lead the country, and which candidate was more likable, knowledgeable and presidential. The voters panned Trump's answers on Jan. 6 and Vladimir Putin.
What they're saying: The campaign last night released a memo from Jen O'Malley Dillon, who heads Biden's campaign, pointing to encouraging data despite the "familiar story" of "the beltway class" counting Biden out.
- "On every metric that matters," JOD wrote, polling shows the debate "did nothing to change the American people's perception, our supporters are more fired up than ever, and Donald Trump only reminded voters of why they fired him four years ago."
But the memo includes this memorable disclaimer: "If we do see changes in polling in the coming weeks, it will not be the first time that overblown media narratives have driven temporary dips in the polls."
- JOD said volunteer sign-ups rose after the debate, and that Biden's rally in Raleigh, North Carolina on Friday was the "largest event of the campaign."
- The campaign also said it raised more than $27 million between debate day and Friday evening, with three record-breaking hours for grassroots fundraising on debate night.
What's next: Biden arrived late Saturday night at Camp David, where he's expected to have a family conversation about whether he's "in" or "out."
