This season’s Jalen Hurts is not playing like 2022 Jalen Hurts.
Last year’s version of the former second round pick was a bonafide MVP candidate. His work through the air, blistering defenses with big throws to AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, answered questions about whether he had the skill to be a franchise quarterback. His work on the ground, already solid, manifested in 760 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.
The Philadelphia Eagles went 14-1 in his starts and bullied their way to an NFC title, falling perhaps one pass interference call away from a Super Bowl win. This year’s Eagles team is 5-1. They’re tied for the best record in the NFL. Hurts has five rushing touchdowns and his offense has gained more yards than all but one other team.
But something’s just a little bit off about Philly, and it starts with Hurts.
oh no Jalen why pic.twitter.com/WpU2eTbtXh
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 15, 2023
A 5-0 start was littered with too-close games against opponents who should have been overmatched from a talent basis alone. The clip above shows Philly unraveling at the worst possible moment in Week 6, a third-and-long interception while protecting a 14-12 lead in the final two minutes on the road.
This hasn’t been an isolated incident. Hurts threw six interceptions in 18 regular season and playoff games last year. He’s already at seven in 2023. He’s the genesis of eight of the Eagles’ nine turnovers this fall. His touchdown rate has dropped by more than 30 percent.
After averaging 0.225 expected points added (EPA) per play in his breakout campaign he’s down to 0.097 this year — still good, but not quite elite. So is this a regression that will prove 2022 wasn’t sustainable? An outlier over a small sample size of six games? A quiet stretch through a nagging injury we haven’t heard much about?
In order to better understand why Hurts isn’t playing up to his potential, I decided to look back on all seven of his interceptions and figure out what went wrong — and just how much he’s to blame for each.
1
vs. Minnesota, Week 2, second quarter
The culprit: A terrible read
There’s no secret behind this one. Hurts needs to make something happen on third-and-long and straight-up blanks the linebacker dropping in coverage to drape an extra layer of defense over DeVonta Smith. For a minute it looks like he’s going to use Smith as a decoy to lure the safety upfield and spring A.J. Brown deep.
Nope, it’s Smith all along, and a throw into double coverage ends in failure — though coming on third-and-long, it’s not exactly devastating.
2
vs. Tampa Bay, Week 3, second quarter
The culprit: Minor interior pressure, either a route miscommunication or a terrible throw
D’Andre Swift’s route from the backfield sees him attempt to juke linebacker Devin White before moving toward daylight in the middle of the field. Hurts, facing a little pressure after a missed block at right guard, throws a pass that would have had little chance of success as a stop route (White was right there) and even less as Swift takes his left/right option at the top of his route and moves into position for what should have been an easy first down.
That’s either a bad throw or a miscommunication between a quarterback and a tailback only in his third game with the team at this point. It’s not good, but it’s understandable.
3
vs. Tampa Bay, Week 4, third quarter
The culprit: Underthrown pass
New offensive coordinator Brian Johnson’s plan appears to be to keep Hurts in the pocket for longer rather than letting him default to his effective, but risky, scrambles after cycling through his first two reads. His time to throw is up from 2.76 seconds in 2022’s All-Pro season, per Next Gen Stats, to 3.06 seconds this fall — second-highest in the NFL.
At the same time, his scrambles per game are up slightly — from 2.93 to 3.0 — but the efficacy of those runs has been worse, dropping from 7.8 to a career-low 6.7. Instead of taking off early, Hurts is risking pressure and worse running lanes of service of making a deep throw with a greater reward.
Still, we see the fruit of that labor here, as Hurts stands in the pocket long enough against a delayed six-man blitz to see Smith has slipped behind safety help and has a step on Dee Delaney. With room to throw this should have been a touchdown. Instead, the ball floats and winds up shy of Smith’s trajectory, allowing Delaney the cover to close on the throw and pick it off at his own one-yard line.
Johnson clearly wants him to take more shots downfield. This is a play that worked in every regard but execution.
4
vs. Los Angeles Rams, Week 5, third quarter
The culprit: Underthrow
This goal line deep throw interception is less excusable. The Rams’ five-man rush is closing toward Hurts, forcing him to loft the ball up to his first read, A.J. Brown. But Brown is well covered by Akhello Witherspoon to begin with. When that too-soft pass falls well short of the back corner of the end zone, the veteran corner twists and gets both feet down in bounds to erase another Philly scoring opportunity.
5
vs. New York Jets, Week 6, second quarter
The culprit: Bad luck (and a great play by Jermaine Johnson)
Let’s dive into the most recent game of the season with a caveat. Hurts was playing without his most important offensive lineman for the bulk of the game. Right tackle Lane Johnson went down with an ankle injury during the team’s first drive and the offense was clearly affected by his absence. His average target distance dropped by a full yard compared to his 2023 average coming into Week 6 (8.3 vs. 9.3) and he completed just two of six passes that traveled at least 14 yards downfield despite facing a Jets secondary without its top two cornerbacks.
Without Johnson in the game, the Jets were able to use their four-man front to generate pressure without sacrificing secondary help. This kept plenty of static in the defensive backfield, forcing a higher rate of precision throws than Hurts is used to.
None of those factors have much to do with this interception, however. Jermaine Johnson drops out in the midst of a blitz and reads a tight end screen perfectly. He pops the ball out of Dallas Goedert’s hands and into Quinnen Williams’ for a rare defensive tackle interception. Without Johnson sniffing this out, it’s a first down. Instead it costs the Eagles around 40 yards compared to the punt that would have followed had Hurts been sacked.
6
vs. New York Jets, Week 6, fourth quarter
The culprit: Pocket pressure, taking too long to throw
Johnson’s absence is felt here as Jermaine Johnson once again makes a great play, swatting Hurts’ arm before he releases the ball and causing the wounded duck throw Bryce Hall easily reels in. Goedert is available for a short gain in the middle of the field, but Hurts takes his time and waits for his routes to develop. It works; Smith is breaking toward the sideline with room to run.
Except, whoops, there’s Johnson again, turning what should have been a big gain in Jets territory into a turnover. It probably can’t be overstated how important he was to Week 6’s win.
7
vs. New York Jets, Week 6, fourth quarter
The culprit: Poor awareness, bad read, everything is bad.
Safety Tony Adams drops back in coverage and Hurts simply doesn’t see him. All he has to do to make this interception is take three steps to his right. Goedert is literally bracketed on a play where the only thing Hurts cannot do is turn the ball over.
Yeesh.
8
So what's the verdict?
Understandably, not all Hurts’ interceptions have been created equally. Some are the product of doing what he’s supposed to and making the right reads to open routes downfield, only to have his throws affected by the pass rush around him — something that may only get worse depending on how much time Lane Johnson misses. Some are bad luck.
But there have been some undeniably defective arrows in Hurts’ quiver. These, for the most part, haven’t been fatal. Forcing a throw on third-and-long inside an opponents’ territory but outside field goal range isn’t nearly as damaging as throwing one in the red zone or backed up after a punt.
On Sunday night, we saw the chickens come home to roost, as his final interception of the night swung the game in New York’s favor and ruined an undefeated record. But that may not have mattered if Hurts hadn’t gotten stung by pressure while making a smart read on the pick beforehand, or if he hadn’t been straight-up unlucky with an easy toss on a screen play that should have worked if not for the Jets’ innovative defense and Jermaine Johnson’s ability to create chaos.
So yes, there are enough bad throws and reads here to be worried. The 2023 Eagles offense is clearly different than the 2022 version under Shane Steichen.
But Brian Johnson’s offense is instilling good instincts on the deep throws that juuuuuust aren’t quite there yet. It may have to take a step backward without an All-Pro right tackle in the lineup and defer back to more designed runs and short routes, but there’s a proof of concept here that suggests Philadelphia could be as good as it was in 2022 once the kinks are ironed out.
Hurts has taken a step backward to start his fourth season as a pro. But he’s also set the stage for a leap forward — especially if he can keep his pocket composure and deliver strikes downfield.
