Every March, college hoops fans anxiously anticipate the madness that is the NCAA tournament. The fun of filling out a bracket, trying to identify the perfect matchups and suddenly falling in love with a program you had never watched before.
Even if you’re pulling for a blue blood powerhouse it’s impossible to not get caught up in Cinderella stories. The tournament’s single-elimination format creates the perfect opportunity for underdogs to take the big stage and shock the world. Those moments—the upsets, the buzzer beaters and the unpredictability—make March Madness so special.
So let’s explore some of the most unpredictable underdog runs in the history of the NCAA tournament, reliving some of the biggest moments from the little guys on men’s college basketball’s biggest stage.
Cinderella Teams and Low Seeds in March Madness
If you focus on games in which the losing team was at least five seed lines higher than the winner, then the average number of upsets each year is 8.5, according to the NCAA website.
Doing it this way eliminates contests like the No. 8 vs No. 9 games in the first round. While a No. 9 picking up a win is technically an upset, it isn’t all that surprising considering the teams on the eight line and the teams on the nine line are extremely similar.
Since 1985—when the tournament expanded to 64 teams—there have been at least three upsets every year. The most upsets (by the established criteria) in a single tournament was 14, which happened in both 2021 and 2023. The fewest number of upsets was three, which occurred in 2007.
On average, there are 4.7 first-round upsets and three second-round upsets. After that? It’s typically chalk.
What’s the Lowest Seed to Win March Madness?
The lowest seed to win March Madness was Villanova in 1985. The Wildcats were a No. 8 seed that year after finishing the regular season at 19–10. Villanova began the season 13–3 before slumping the remainder of the year.
Villanova’s first NCAA tournament game was against No. 9 Dayton, but the game was being played in Dayton’s home arena. Despite being the higher seed, the Wildcats would have to win a road game to advance and that’s precisely what they did. Tied at 49 with 1:10 remaining, Harold Pressley hit a layup to give the Wildcats the 51–49 lead. The Wildcats would play strong defense and the game would end with the same score.
Next, Villanova squared off with No. 1 seed Michigan. The Wolverines led 37–36 with 7:33 remaining before a pair of Wildcats free throws from Gary McClain put Villanova up 38–37. The Wildcats would never relinquish their lead, as they often managed to drain every possible second off of every possible possession. The final score was 59–55.
The next challenge for the Wildcats was No. 4 seed Maryland. Len Bias had scored 10+ points in 52-straight contests for the Terrapins, but Villanova clamped down and held him to just eight points—a season low. The Wildcats won 46–43.
Following that, Villanova met No. 2 seed North Carolina in the Elite Eight. The Tar Heels jumped out to a five-point lead at halftime before some stingy defense by the Wildcats resulted in a 56–44 win and a Final Four berth.
There, the Wildcats faced another No. 2 seed, theMemphis State Tigers. Villanova’s zone defense befuddled a heavily favored Memphis team, holding the Tigers to a season low in points scored (45), setting up an all-Big East championship game with Georgetown.
The Hoyas and Wildcats met inside Rupp Arena in front of 23,124 fans in attendance. Georgetown was a nine-point favorite and featured a roster with five future NBA players, highlighted by future Hall of Fame center Patrick Ewing.
The Wildcats figured they couldn’t outscore Ewing and the Hoyas in a traditional game, so they opted for a four-corners offense for a large portion of the night, draining clock and limiting possessions.
Villanova would win the game 66–62.
The NCAA instituted a 45-second shot clock for the next season.
Biggest Cinderella Runs in NCAA Tournament History
No. 11 George Mason Patriots (2006): George Mason captured the nation in 2006, knocking off four blue blood programs en route to the Final Four. The No. 11 Patriots defeated No. 6 Michigan State, No. 3 North Carolina, No. 7 Wichita State and No. 1 UConn before falling to No. 3 Florida and becoming the first double-digit seed to reach the Final Four since LSU in 1986.
No. 11 Loyola Chicago Ramblers (2018): A 16-seed upset a 1-seed for the first time in tournament history in 2018, but that’s not what most people remember. Instead, they remember a Herculean run from Loyola Chicago and team chaplain Sister Jean. The No. 11 Ramblers defeated No. 6 Miami, No. 3 Tennessee, No. 7 Nevada and No. 9 Kansas State before losing to No. 3 Michigan in the Final Four.
No. 11 VCU Rams (2011): VCU became the first team to go from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011, defeating No. 11 USC (First Four), No. 6 Georgetown, No. 3 Purdue, No. 11 Florida State and No. 1 Kansas. Unfortunately for the Rams, they were unable to pull out a win over No. 8 Butler in the Final Four.
No. 8 Butler Bulldogs (2011): Speaking of Butler, the Bulldogs also had an incredible 2011 run. The team was known for a slow-paced, grinding defense and muddied up games effectively, sparking a run that saw the Bulldogs knock off No. 9 Old Dominion, No. 1 Pittsburgh, No. 4 Wisconsin and No. 2 Florida en route to the national title game. There, the Bulldogs fell to No. 3 UConn. Butler became the first No. 8 seed to make the championship since Villanova in 1985.
Two other 8-seeds have made the title game, Kentucky in 2014 and North Carolina in 2022. While a deep run is never anything to criticize, it doesn’t seem quite the same to include two blue blood programs into this section, as those programs often have stacked rosters with expectations of cutting down the nets.
Why Low Seeds Succeed in March Madness
To be clear, the only reason that lower-seeded teams advance in the NCAA tournament is because they’ve earned it. There’s no singular formula for success.
With that being said, there are a handful of factors that might increase the odds for a lower seed. Firstly, the turnaround time is exceptionally quick, meaning there is less time to gameplan. Considering higher seeds typically have more talent on the roster, less time to coach said talent leans in favor of the lower seeds.
Secondly, lower-seeded teams usually have more upperclassmen on the roster. Experience and team unity are huge assets in March and higher seeds usually have to navigate the challenges of players leaving early to go pro. That’s a problem that coaches will tell you is a good one to have, but it doesn’t change the fact that many lower-seeded teams have rosters that have gelled together for years.
Notable Teams That Reached the National Championship as Low Seeds
Read More About March Madness
This article was originally published on www.si.com as What’s the Lowest Seed to Win March Madness? A Look at the Biggest Cinderella Runs in NCAA Tournament History.
