It’s time to exit the exit crisis.
That, at least, is the hope in VC-land right now, where a celebratory mood is in the air. The business-friendly policies of the incoming Trump administration, many are betting, will open the floodgates to an orgy of deals, from M&A to IPOs.
Trump’s picks for some of the key regulatory agencies certainly suggest a better dealmaking environment compared to what businesses faced in the Biden administration. And the many tech and VC industry insiders working within the Trump administration (including VP-elect JD Vance) can’t hurt.
With just days to go before Trump 2.0, it’s worth taking stock of where we are. The latest Pitchbook-NVCA Monitor quarterly report provides some valuable insight. A few things stood out to me:
The total number of exits and aggregate value of exits in 2024 was actually up from the prior year. There were 1,249 exits last year, versus 1,143 in 2023—not a huge uptick but up nonetheless. Value wise, the increase was larger, with those exits adding up to $149.2 billion, up 24% from the year before.
Exits are down massively since 2021 however. The aggregate value of the 2,040 exits in 2021 totalled $841.5 billion—almost 6X the number posted in 2024. Some of the big IPOs of 2021 included UiPath, Rivian, and Coinbase (For what it’s worth, Coinbase is the only one of those three that currently trades above its IPO price).
But 2021 is a misleading yardstick for exits. That pandemic year was the peak. Nothing else over the past decade even comes close.
Technically, exits are down from the “pre pandemic" level—the aggregate value of exits in 2019 was more than in 2024, but 2019 was still way below the 2021 peak. Look at 2014 through 2018, and things don't look radically different from today, with the annual aggregate value of exits in those years fluctuating between $98.7 billion and $177 billion.
A lot has changed since those pre-pandemic years. For one thing, the AI boom that’s currently soaking up massive amounts of capital wasn’t a factor back then. And there’s now a huge back-up of late-stage private companies looking for the exits: According to the Pitchbook-NVCA report, the total value of privately held unicorns is now $2.7 trillion!
That’s a lot of capital waiting for liquidity. The deal market may be about to rebound, but there’s nothing normal about it.
What’s in a name? I’d argue a lot, actually. Intel Capital is getting a new one in the back half of 2025, and Term Sheet readers had some fun suggestions. One suggestion, from Ryan Zauk, OMERS Ventures investor: ML Capital, in reference to Moore’s Law. Shahin Farshchi, Lux Capital general partner, asks: "How about 'High Output Capital' in honor of [seminal early Intel CEO] Andy Grove's book?” And JP Ditty, KPMG TMT managing director, made me smile: "Intel.Capital.AI—because everything is apparently better with AI at the end of it…(humor intended!)” —Allie Garfinkle
See you Monday,
Alexei Oreskovic
Email: alexei.oreskovic@fortune.com
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