The usual phrase of “it's lonely at the top” would seem to apply neatly to stock markets. Aside from a few brief incursions, Apple (AAPL) has been the world’s biggest company between 2011 and 2023. Earlier this year, it lost the title to Microsoft (MSFT), but dislodged the Windows maker to reclaim the crown early last week, following its stellar rally after the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC).
However, stock markets experienced their “flippening” of sorts on Tuesday – a term used to describe the hypothetical situation where Ethereum (ETHUSD) replaces Bitcoin (BTCUSD) as the biggest cryptocurrency – when Nvidia (NVDA) surpassed both Big Tech giants to become the world’s most valuable company.
Nvidia Surpassed Microsoft to Become the World’s Biggest Company
Nvidia has been a remarkable wealth creator for investors, with its stock up over 79,000% (and no, that’s not a typo!) over the last 20 years. Just a couple of years back, not too many would have given the Jensen Huang-led company any realistic chance of becoming the world’s biggest company – and by 2024, no less.
However, Nvidia has seen a major rerating with the artificial intelligence (AI) pivot. The company’s chips form the bedrock of large language models (LLMs) that multiple companies - including tech giants like Meta Platforms (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG) - are building.
Meanwhile, amid the continued rally in Nvidia, recovery in Apple, and continued strength in Microsoft, we now have three companies running neck-and-neck for the crown of the world’s biggest company. Here’s the forecast for these three $3 trillion behemoths, and a look at which company could retain the title by the end of 2024.
Apple Stock Forecast
Apple is currently trading above its mean target price of $206.96. As I noted in a previous article, the anomaly is largely due to the majority of analysts not yet refreshing their target prices after the WWDC announcements.
However, sell-side analysts have been gradually ramping up their target prices. Recently, Bank of America analyst Samik Chatterjee raised his price target from $225 to $245. Apple’s Street-high target price is $275 - which, if hit, would mean the company’s market cap rising to $4.2 billion over the next year.
Rosenblatt Expects Nvidia’s Market Cap to Rise to Almost $5 Trillion
Analysts covering Nvidia stock have been a busy group – and quite literally so – as they have had to raise their target prices frequently amid the spectacular rise in NVDA stock.
Like Apple, Nvidia is also trading above its consensus target price. Notably, NVDA stock has often traded above its mean target price over the last year, as analysts have been trying to play catch-up with its price action.
The stock’s new Street-high target price of $200 (via Rosenblatt) implies the chip designing company’s market cap soaring to almost $5 trillion. Fellow Barchart analyst Mark R. Hake, CFA also believes that NVDA stock could be worth $200 based on its free cash flows.
How High Can Microsoft Stock Go?
Unlike Nvidia and Apple, both of which trade above their mean target prices, Microsoft’s mean target price of $492.71 is 10.4% higher than Tuesday's closing prices. The stock’s Street-high target price of $600 is 34.4% higher, and if hit, would place the Redmond-based company’s market cap at nearly $4.5 trillion.
In terms of valuations, though, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia all trade at a premium to their average 3-year forward price-to-earnings (PE) multiples.
Which Tech Giant Will Be the Biggest Company by the End of 2024?
As things stand currently, all three of these names are in contention to be the biggest company by market cap by the end of 2024. It should be a close race, and Wedbush believes that “over the next year the race to $4 Trillion Market Cap in Tech will be front and center” between NVDA, MSFT, and AAPL.
Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster, however, believes that Apple will outperform Nvidia over the next year. While the noted tech analyst termed Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang as the “godfather of AI,” he emphasized, “Investors are largely in denial about what Apple’s AI opportunity is going to be.”
The race is wide open, and while the momentum might lie with Nvidia, some analysts are advising caution after its breathtaking rally, which refuses to die down. As Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors in New York, said, “Nvidia has been getting a lot of positive attention and has been doing a lot of things very correctly, but a small misstep is likely to cause a major correction in the stock, and investors should be careful.”
As for Apple, the company needs to show markets that its “Apple Intelligence” can really fuel the iPhone replacement supercycle that many analysts are predicting.
Microsoft also has multiple opportunities to capitalize on the AI pivot. These include the expected PC refresh driven by AI-enabled gadgets, growth in cloud and other software services, and market share gains in the online search market led by its partnership with ChatGPT.
Overall, I believe that we could see a tough fight between Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia for the numero uno spot as markets weigh how all three companies will benefit from round 2 of the AI pivot.
On the date of publication, Mohit Oberoi had a position in: AAPL , MSFT , GOOG , AMZN , NVDA , META . All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
