Fashion and lifestyle
by Ellie Bramley
Fashion and lifestyle have a knack for the surprise. The out-of-the-blue rise of butter moulding, say, or the sudden coolness of a shoe with a cloven toe.
Divergence and disparateness are the mood music for 2024. What this means for fashion is yet more extreme luxury, both of the stealth wealth and exhibitionist varieties. But there will also be more emphasis than ever on thrifting, textile recycling, and the development of new materials, especially in the luxury market. Expect more seaweed yarns, plastic-free sequins and grape leathers like those shown by designer Stella McCartney at Cop28.
With several elections set for 2024, slogan T-shirts will be used once more for political statements and to pledge allegiance rather than for more personal messages. Expect Maga caps and merch in the vein of Keir Starmer’s Sparkle With Starmer tee, turned around at speed after he was glitter-bombed at Labour conference. There’ll also be more politicians in the pages of Vogue, à la Angela Rayner.
Pinterest predicts that slowcations are the new holidays, with searches up for things like “slow life” and “digital detox challenge”. That doesn’t mean we’ll stay at home, however. This is meant to be the year that travel will surpass pre-pandemic levels, so the holidaywear market is expected to boom. Guessing the mood for summer of 2024 is a fool’s errand this many months out. However, it probably will involve something sporty, given this summer will see Paris, city of chic, play host to the Olympics. Get ready to see some very well-dressed athletes, and the rest of us trying to copy them.
UK politics
by Andrew Rawnsley
Americans can be sure when they will be choosing their president because the election date – the Tuesday after the first Monday in November – is mandated by law. We don’t know when the UK will go to the polls because the decision lies in the hands of the prime minister.
Rishi Sunak could even swerve an election in 2024 because the last possible legal date open to him is 28 January 2025. Clinging on until he hit the buffers would make him look totally terrified of the voters. It would also entail the campaign running over Christmas, which would be popular with no one.
Spring or autumn is the choice facing the Tory leader. Anyone who claims to be certain what he will do is either a fool or a fibber, because he doesn’t know himself. Like any politician in his dire circumstances, he’s trying to keep his options open and his opponents guessing. Take with a pinch of salt the flurry of speculation that he is leaning to spring since the announcement that the budget will be on 6 March. That gives him the scope to go to the king soon afterwards to ask for the dissolution of parliament in order to time the general election to coincide with the locals on 2 May.
That might appeal to the Tories if they were suddenly looking competitive, but I struggle to visualise the circumstances in which their whopping deficit in the polls will shrink enough to make that look attractive. As for any budget “giveaways” that Jeremy Hunt might conjure up, tax cuts will look extremely cynical and suspicious if they are almost instantly followed by a dash to the country.
I forecast an autumn contest for two main reasons. There’s a better chance that the Bank of England will have started to cut interest rates by then. For many voters, reductions in inflation and borrowing costs will make a bigger difference to their quality of life than any tax cuts.
My second reason for expecting an autumn election is the psychology of beleaguered incumbents who fear the verdict of the electorate. Leaders who aren’t confident of winning almost invariably delay the moment of reckoning in the hope that something will turn up to save them, as did Alec Douglas-Home in the early 1960s, Jim Callaghan in the late 70s, John Major in the late 90s and Gordon Brown in the run-up to the 2010 election. Delay didn’t spare any of them, but it did give them some extra months at No 10. Never underestimate how much their position on the longevity league table matters to prime ministers.
The environment
by Ashish Ghadiali
It looks as if 2024 will be the year of climate action versus the culture wars as crucial elections take place across the US, the UK, the EU and India. These four are some of the world’s highest emitters of greenhouse gases and, across them all, rightwing parties are promising to row back on existing commitments to climate action in an appeal for the populist vote.
Donald Trump, who as US president in 2016 made withdrawal from the Paris agreement an early statement of intent, is again the frontrunner for the Republican nomination and has already promised to renege on the Biden administration’s $3bn pledge at Cop28 for a Green Climate Fund. He also promises to reverse the Environment Protection Agency’s plan to require two-thirds of all new cars sold in the US to be electric by 2032.
Meanwhile, elections for the European parliament in June will see citizens across the EU weigh in on the future of the European Green New Deal, the proposal developed over the past four years by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.
Such decisive contests will take place during what many climate scientists predict will be the hottest year on record (an accolade currently held by 2023) when, according to Professor Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organisation, unprecedented levels of greenhouse gas, new global temperature highs, record sea level increases and Antarctic sea ice lows, amounted to a “deafening cacophony of broken records”.
Extreme heat in 2024 will be driven by the “super El Niño” – a phenomenon of ocean warming in the Pacific that disrupts the Earth’s weather systems, increasing the risk of extreme events around the world, including heatwaves, wildfires, heavy rains and floods – which, in turn, has the potential to hit crop yields threatening both food and global commodity supply chains.
The environmental cost of political instability will be evident, nowhere more than in Gaza where the 25,000 tonnes of munitions dropped on the city within the first few weeks of the conflict amounted to the annual greenhouse gas emissions produced by nearly 5,000 passenger vehicles.
Ramallah-based Nada Majdalani, director of EcoPeace Middle East, says decaying bodies and contaminated water supplies now amount to a “ticking time bomb” that may lead to the spread of deadly diseases, including cholera.
The total shutdown of wastewater treatment plants in Gaza last October is currently driving the release of more than 130,000 cubic metres of untreated sewage into the Mediterranean every day, according to data released by the Norwegian Refugee Council.
Television
by Barbara Ellen
Dramatisation of significant novels is a big theme for 2024. On BBC One, there’ll be an adaptation of Mr Loverman, the novel by Booker-prizewinning author, Bernardine Evaristo, starring Lennie James and focusing on life and love in the older British Caribbean community. On Netflix, One Day by David Nicholls is another key adaptation. A 14-episode series will feature Ambika Mod and Leo Woodall as the star-crossed lovers, with each episode representing one year.
Anna Maxwell Martin is to star in the BBC Three series of Holly Jackson’s A Good Girl’s Guide to Murder. Meanwhile, those who loved Anthony Minghella’s film of Patricia Highsmith’s The Talented Mr Ripley may be interested to hear that a TV series, Ripley, is imminent. Made by Netflix, it will star Andrew Scott, Johnny Flynn and Dakota Fanning.
Elsewhere in 2024, there looks to be a strong trend for heightened social commentary in British drama. Steven Knight (creator of Peaky Blinders) is to deliver a new six-part BBC One show, This Town, about 1980s-era working-class life focused on the ska music scene. Alongside the four young leads (Levi Brown, Jordan Bolger, Ben Rose and Eve Austin), it also stars Michelle Dockery, Nicholas Pinnock and Geraldine James. On the same channel, actor Michael Sheen co-creates and directs The Way, a sociopolitical tale of a fictional civil uprising in a small industrial town.
Over on ITV1, Joanne Froggatt is to play an NHS doctor at the time of the pandemic in the three-part series Breathtaking. This is adapted by medic Rachel Clarke from her personal memoir, and co-written by Line of Duty’s Jed Mercurio and Prasanna Puwanarajah, both also former doctors.
On BBC One, there’s the return of two acclaimed hard-hitting dramas. Nottingham-set Sherwood, with returning cast members, David Morrissey and Lesley Manville, joined by David Harewood and Monica Dolan. Also, Tony Schumacher’s The Responder, which once again stars Martin Freeman as a policeman mired in criminality and corruption in Liverpool.
Regarding talent to look out for in 2024, young Irish actor Katherine Devlin recently shone in the BBC One Northern Irish police drama, Blue Lights. With another series of the show planned, Devlin is also due to star alongside Eddie Redmayne in the forthcoming TV version of The Day of the Jackal, produced by Top Boy’s Ronan Bennett.
Theatre, dance and visual arts
by Vanessa Thorpe
New Year’s fireworks continue in the West End, where a run of glittering theatrical turns is due to light up early 2024. In February, Succession’s Sarah Snook will perform her one-woman version of Oscar Wilde’s The Picture of Dorian Gray to Royal Theatre Haymarket audiences, and, before that, the queen of Manhattan heels, Sarah Jessica Parker, appears at the Savoy Theatre alongside her husband, Matthew Broderick, late of Netflix’s pharma-drama Pain, in a revival of Neil Simon’s 1968 comedy, Plaza Suite.
More powerful wattage still may come in February from homegrown star Matt Smith, who returns to the West End stage after 15 years to take the lead role of Dr Stockmann in Henrik Ibsen’s time-tested classic, An Enemy of the People. It’s a play that repeatedly picks up fresh political resonance, as well as purportedly inspiring Peter Benchley to write Jaws. It’s the English-language premiere of German director Thomas Ostermeier’s acclaimed “townhall debate” production, in which the audience is invited to tackle the ethics of the plot.
In March, another beloved television Smith, Sheridan, opens at the Gielgud Theatre in a new musical by Rufus Wainwright, all about such a stage premiere. Based on John Cassavetes’s 1977 film, Opening Night, it’s directed by Ivo van Hove. Wainwright has said: “I’ve been waiting for ages to write my first musical … I don’t think I could’ve aimed any higher.”
Spectacle, in the shape of thousands of silk carnations strewn across the stage of Sadler’s Wells, will draw ballet fans to the first revival of Pina Bausch’s Nelken (Carnations) since 2005 . Opening on Valentine’s Day, it features the now-fabled “Nelken line” dance motif, illustrating the passing seasons. The latest generation of 20 of the late Bausch’s Tanztheater Wuppertal dancers will hop over, kiss and squash the flowers once again.
Bradford receives an early taste of national attention this summer, as it gears up for 2025’s UK City of Culture status. The Bradford Live venue is unveiled shortly after the National Science & Media Museum is due to reopen its doors, following £6m of work. The city’s literature festival gets in first though, celebrating a 10th anniversary at the end of June.
And for those not yet sick of Barbie pink, London’s Design Museum salutes the doll’s 65th birthday with a dedicated show running from early July. More conventional museum fare will be widely available from May when Britain’s historic repository of visual art, the National Gallery, marks its 200th anniversary. The gallery is linking up with 12 other sites – including museums in Liverpool, Newcastle, Cambridge and Brighton – to display key pieces, for free.
January also offers a partial answer to all the mystery surrounding the new Matthew Vaughn thriller, Argylle. The publication date of the book the film is supposedly based upon, written by an “Elly Conway” (last heard of as a fictional character in TV’s Neighbours), is 9 January. Vaughn’s big budget film, which stars Henry Cavill and Dua Lipa, is released in February.
Technology
by John Naughton
If 2023 was the year of ChatGPT, then 2024 will be the year when the world recovers from the shock of generative AI and takes stock of what the technology offers. At the moment, the Gartner Hype Cycle – a visualisation of the social use of technologies – has AI right at the “Peak of Inflated Expectations”, poised to begin the downward slide into the “Trough of Disillusionment” with a predicted time to productive deployment of five to 10 years. So we’re embarking on a decade of experimentation and deployment. Our future, says Steven Levy, Wired’s editor at large, “will be characterised by a tension between copilot (AI as collaborator) and autopilot (humans as sidekick to AI). The latter is more efficient and cheaper in a narrow labour economics sense but troublesome in all sorts of ways.”
Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) will increase, further outpacing countries’ national charging infrastructures. And Europe will find itself locked into a toxic loop as Chinese-built EVs flood in. This is happening because European governments subsidise the purchase of EVs, while China subsidises their production. Since Chinese domestic demand for the cars has slumped, they are being effectively dumped on Europe. This won’t end well.
Twitter/X will continue its self-imposed decline as its owner thrashes around trying to staunch the bleeding. No matter how decrepit the network becomes, though people will use it because of the absence of an alternative that isn’t owned by Mark Zuckerberg.
With its legislative triad of the Digital Services Act, Digital Markets Act and (forthcoming) AI Act, the EU will continue to be the only game in town for tech regulation. Signs of its effectiveness are beginning to surface – for example with Meta, Facebook’s owner, offering customers in Europe ad-free subscriptions. Google’s competition problems in the US will go on. Self-driving cars will continue to be – like artificial general intelligence and nuclear fusion – “some decades off”.
Foreign affairs
by Simon Tisdall
Suspense over the outcome of the US presidential election in November will increasingly command American domestic and international attention. Joe Biden plans to ignore many in his own party and seek a second term despite his age (81) and low approval ratings. The Democrats’ nightmare: Biden becomes unwell or suffers some disastrous embarrassment when it’s too late to replace him. Few believe vice-president Kamala Harris could step into his shoes. Donald Trump, who will be 78 in November, will win the Republican nomination. But his overall national approval rating is as negative as Biden’s, at roughly -15%. It’s also possible Trump will be in jail come the election. Prediction: Biden wins the popular vote, Trump the electoral college – which means Trump gets a second term.
President Xi Jinping, is now the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The downside, for him, is that when things go wrong, he cannot escape blame. And things are going wrong. The economy is struggling, unemployment among young people is up, there’s a debt, investment and property crisis, and the population is ageing. Xi’s expansionist policies, predatory trade practices, disregard for international law, and human rights abuses have alienated neighbours, provoking western pushback. Taiwan, which Xi insists is part of China, worries he may attack to distract attention from domestic problems. Purges of top officials have added to a sense of instability. Prediction: Xi is stripped of some or all of his powers in an internal Communist party revolt.
At a time when democracy is everywhere under attack, 2024, paradoxically, will see record numbers of elections – possibly in more than 50 countries, depending on dates and how defined. Sadly, a lot of these polls will not be freely contested. Results can be predicted in advance. Vladimir Putin’s re-election as Russia’s president in March is not in doubt. In other countries, too, the cards are stacked against opponents to such a degree that incumbents can hardly fail to win. Examples are India, Iran, Belarus and Venezuela. Genuinely open contests are expected in the UK, Taiwan, across the EU – including for the European parliament in June – and in the US. Holding elections in the midst of a war will be a big test for Ukraine’s democracy. Prediction: this global vote-fest will see further advances for authoritarian and populist-nationalist far right leaders.
Finance
by Rupert Jones
The cost of living crisis will continue to dominate the headlines – although economists will be watching to see if the signs that pressure is easing develop into something more substantial.
Just when many people’s finances will be feeling especially fragile as a result of festive spending, households will begin the new year with a typical 5% increase in energy bills. That’s because the regulator, Ofgem, raised the energy price cap to £1,928 a year for a typical household using gas and electricity and paying by direct debit.
The cap is for 1 January to 31 March, but the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight predicts it will then fall back: to £1,816 from 1 April, and then to £1,793 from the start of July.
Another bit of potential bad news concerns food prices. New border checks on food and fresh produce from the EU that begin on 31 January will add costs to imported ingredients and could be a big inflationary factor, bodies such as the British Sandwich & Food to Go Association have warned.
But an expansion of free childcare schemes starting from April should, in theory, relieve some pressure on family finances. From that month, eligible working parents of two-year-olds will get 15 hours a week of taxpayer-funded childcare for 38 weeks of the year – the first part of a phased expansion.
House prices and mortgages will continue to be a national obsession. The Office for Budget Responsibility has predicted house prices will fall by 4.7% in 2024, which would please first-time buyers, though maybe not homeowners. However, the housing market has form when it comes to defying a predicted downturn or crash. And with Halifax and Nationwide reporting house prices rose in both October and November, you wouldn’t bet against the market ending the year in positive territory.
The cost of new fixed-rate mortgages has been coming down, and Nicholas Mendes at mortgage broker John Charcol predicts there will be further cuts in 2024. “Five-year fixed rates will be the first to see a sub-4% rate, with two- and three-year fixed rates then breaking the 4.5% benchmark,” he added.
Meanwhile, analysts will be waiting to find out if Taylor Swift can sprinkle her stardust on the UK economy when her tour arrives in June. Earlier this year the market research firm QuestionPro estimated that her Eras Tour could generate $5bn (£3.9bn) for the US economy – more than the gross domestic product of 50 countries. “The Taylor Swift economy” is not just folklore: the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia confirmed her three concerts in the city in May had boosted tourism revenue.
Swift is doing 15 shows in Great Britain, in front of almost 1.2 million people. The gigs should unleash a wave of spending on merchandise, food and drink, travel, accommodation and new outfits. Lighthouse, a travel and hospitality industry data specialist, said there were clear indications the singer would positively affect the cities where she is playing.
Sport
by Sean Ingle
Sport will be dominated by two mega events: the Olympic Games and the men’s football European Championships. Britain’s biggest stars should take centre stage in both.
Half a million people will attend the opening ceremony of the Paris Games on 26 July, which will see a flotilla of 160 boats carrying athletes travelling along nearly four miles of the Seine. Expect spectacular theatre, dance and circus performances before the Games are officially opened at the Trocadéro.
That should set the stage for the rest of the Olympics, which organisers hope will be a spectacular reboot after corruption and then Covid marred the Rio and Tokyo Games.
Rather than build new venues, Paris’s famous sites will take centre stage. Skateboarding, breaking and 3x3 basketball will be held at Place de la Concorde, equestrian at the Palace of Versailles. Beach volleyball will be in front of the Eiffel Tower.
It means this will be the first true Olympics for the Insta generation, and once again Team GB should be near the top of the medal table. Expect Adam Peaty, Tom Daley and Katarina Johnson-Thompson to return – and new stars, such as super-heavyweight boxer Delicious Orie and 21-year-old cyclist Emma Finucane, to emerge.
Before the Olympics, England’s male footballers will hope to match the women’s team success in 2022 by winning the Euro 2024. A kind draw has given Gareth Southgate’s side every chance – with bookies making them joint favourites alongside France, although Scotland are also through, with Wales hoping for a play-off win to qualify. If England do go far, don’t be surprised if Jude Bellingham, the 20-year-old Real Madrid midfielder, wins the 2024 BBC’s Sports Personality of the Year.
Meanwhile, after women’s sport delivered record audiences in football, basketball, golf, tennis and cricket in 2023, the global sports and culture company IMG is predicting that “will convert to tangible dollars” in 2024. “There is already data to suggest that fans of women’s sports will… support the brands that commit to it,” IMG’s recent report states. “[Women’s sport sponsor] Michelob Ultra found fans of women’s sport are 30% more likely to engage with its brand than fans of men’s sports.”
The report also predicts the rise of the mega influencer will grow even further after Cristiano Ronaldo joined the Saudi Pro League and Lionel Messi went to Major League Soccer.
Food
by Tony Naylor
Restaurant land remains volatile. Costs are high, staff in short supply, spending was down for long periods last year. But hospitality will adapt, survive, in many cases thrive. It is resilient, with escapism very much on the menu in 2024.
The new Leeds branch of Pizza Pilgrims features a pink flamingo pedalo that dispenses soft-serve ice-creams. Diners can sit in it and use pedal power to play an old gramophone. That is where we are now. Goodbye leather aprons, hand-thrown earthenware and artisan minimalism. Hello eye-popping interiors, DJs, live music, theatrical tableside service, chefs on display in counter kitchens and endless collaborations, as restaurants seek an experiential edge over their rivals.
Big food hall openings, such as the forthcoming Boxpark Liverpool, will continue for similar reasons of entertainment and variety, as traditional meal times and formats change. Wine bars serving snack-y, quality small plates will also embed.
That is, if you’re still drinking. A recent Olive magazine survey of Gen Z habits found more 16-to-26-year-olds drink bubble tea weekly than alcohol. Alcohol-free options will grow, but also creativity in lower-strength cocktails and, after recent alcohol duty changes, beers under 3.5% ABV. Carlsberg has already reformulated its flagship pils for UK drinkers at 3.4%.
Need something stronger? Orange wine, whiskey and spicy, chilli-mined cocktails are trending. You may think heat has peaked. But hot sauce sales are still surging, up 94% last year at specialist Hop, Burns & Black.
With excitement around veganism cooling, flexitarianism is back on the agenda. Though focusing on veg-led dishes is a win-win for restaurants in managing ingredient costs, menu prices and on sustainability. In fish, predicts Jack Stein, chef-director at Rick Stein’s restaurants, there’ll be growing interest in the cheaper pouting, dab and whiting.
Cuisine-wise, Waitrose tips Nepalese and Pakistani food for greater exposure in Britain. The supermarket is also backing Korean doenjang paste as the new miso, as east Asian food continues to enthral foodies. From omakase dining (a menu set by the chef) to senbei rice crackers (a 2024 tip from specialist retailer, Sous Chef), Japanese food, in particular, will be a huge inspiration.
Alternatively, Pinterest is reporting search increases for “melty mashups”, comfort food crossovers which, despite the terrifying name, sound (pizza-inspired pies, smashed burger tacos, ramen noodle carbonara) quite tasty, actually. Jelly sweet kebabs, less so.
How that fits with our burgeoning interest in gut health, who knows? But as we toast 2024 – perhaps, with Joia restaurant’s squid ink-blackened cocktail – it is guaranteed to be interesting.
• This article was amended on 31 December 2023. In the “Television” section, an earlier version mistakenly included the novel Shuggie Bain among TV adaptions due to be shown on BBC One in 2024, and said a factual drama about the Grenfell Tower disaster, as well as Riz Ahmed’s series Englistan, would also be screened by the BBC. Release dates for these have yet to be set. Also, Prasanna Puwanarajah was incorrectly described as having acted in Sherwood.
