We have all been left to speculate about what exactly Deebo Samuel’s issues are with the San Francisco 49ers and why he made his trade request public last week. His move added a hot-button wrinkle to an offseason that we thought would be centered around moving away from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
“I’m not going to talk about that much today because I don’t think that’s productive,” 49ers GM John Lynch said Monday at his annual news conference ahead of this weekend’s NFL draft. “There’s a sanctity to those conversations remaining private. And that’s always how we’ve operated and we’ll continue to do so in this situation.”
Neither Samuel, who has been active on social media and called ESPN’s Jeff Darlington on April 20 to let him know he wants out, nor Lynch have offered specifics. There are only questions. Namely:
— What happened since the end of the season, when Samuel so glowingly spoke about being okay with his role as a “wide back” and his relationship with coach Kyle Shanahan?
“I do believe in the sanctity as I mentioned, and those things remains private,” Lynch said.
— What are Samuel’s demands?
“I’m just not going to get into those particulars because I just don’t think it’s productive,” the GM said.
— How do other teams view what is happening with Samuel and would that impact his potential market?
It’s a lot to unpack without having answers.
Deebo Samuel’s 2021 season
And Samuel’s status is vital to the 49ers for many, many reasons since he became one of their best and most indispensable players in 2021. There’s no realistic scenario San Francisco is immediately better with Samuel playing elsewhere this fall. Just like there’s no scenario in which moving on from Samuel helps integrate Trey Lance into the mix as the new starting quarterback more than if Samuel lined up out wide (or on Lance’s hip as a “wide back”).
Contract negotiations are tricky particularly when so much money is on the line. As a receiver who had 77 catches for 1,405 yards and six receiving touchdowns, Samuel should be in line to make north of $20 million per season, which is about the market rate for Pro Bowl receivers in their primes.
Add the fact Samuel rushed for 365 more yards on 59 carries in the regular season (before adding 33 for 239 yards in three postseason games), and Samuel could make the case he’s worth more than what a receiver with his numbers would make.
Which leads to the questions about Samuel’s demands. Would he only play for San Francisco if his salary is commensurate with a top wideout and a running back? Is taking two to three more hits per game worth a few million more in base salary per season or guaranteed dollars over the life of a long-term contract?
Put in less ambiguous terms, does Samuel want something closer to $30 million per year while the 49ers would rather pay him in the $20 to $25 million range? We can’t say for sure, but we can look at the situation and come away with those plausible sticking points.
For now, the 49ers are making it clear they do not want to cave and trade Samuel.
“I can’t ever imagine wanting to move on from Deebo,” Lynch said. “You put yourself through the exercises of, even though we don’t have a first-round pick, you have to be thorough in this process and prepare for everything. And so, you go through and do that and he’s just too good of a player.”
But can a trade be ruled out entirely? Of course not.
“We’ve been consistent since we’ve been here in that we listen (to overtures from other teams) on just about anyone,” said Lynch. “That’s something we’ll always do. But like I said, I can’t ever imagine moving on from Deebo. He’s been such a great player for us. He means so much to this franchise. I’ve got nothing but love for the guy.”
Draft day looms
Timing is a key point here. Samuel’s trade demands were made public just over a week before the NFL draft, when the 49ers could use picks acquired in a potential trade to make up for his loss.
Samuel would have less leverage to ask out after the draft because any future draft capital wouldn’t help the team until 2023. Of course, San Francisco’s big-money contract extensions to its own draftees (tight end George Kittle and linebacker Fred Warner) were agreed to late in the summer, just before the start of training camp in 2020 and 2021, respectively. All signs point to the 49ers preferring to have those talks with Samuel in July.
Lynch balked at a question about the team’s knack for extending players over the summer. But he did say contract talks with defensive end Nick Bosa, who is also due an extension and had his fifth-year option picked up Monday (a formality), would happen “at the appropriate time.”
It’s fair to say the 49ers don’t believe now is the appropriate time to extend someone like Samuel. There are financial specifics to handle during the draft and in undrafted free agency. Teams’ financial pictures are more clear when the draft class is finalized and undrafted free agents are signed. That’s typically how San Francisco has operated.
The possible outcomes here remain endless. I’ll stick with my prediction in saying I think the 49ers and Samuel will come to an agreement on a contract in July after deciding not to trade him this week. I just don’t know how another team elsewhere is looking at the situation and thinking it would be wise to send over a first-round pick, and other selections, for the right to have these negotiations with Samuel.
And yes, that’s despite whatever stance Samuel is taking on social media. Because with the 49ers he still has a great chance to put up big numbers, play for a contending team and earn a ton of cash along the way.
