The healthcare sector is undergoing a seismic shift as firms harness advanced technologies and consumer-friendly platforms to redefine how Americans access coverage. Yet, amid this tech revolution, government policy remains a powerful force shaping winners and losers.
Immediately after the election, Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) was hit with a downgrade at Bank of America, as the brokerage firm warned that President-elect Trump’s second administration could reduce support for exchange subsidies. As a result, OSCR stock plunged 15.2% in the post-election session on Nov. 6, and ended that week down more than 23% - even as the broader market surged to new record highs on optimism over Trump’s pro-business stance.
Against this backdrop, Oscar Health’s co-founder and Vice Chairman, Josh Kushner - not only a major investor in OpenAI, but a billionaire with ties to the Trump family - just purchased nearly $20 million worth of shares in two massive transactions, marking the first insider purchases on OSCR by Kushner (or anyone else) since 2021.
Is Kushner’s huge insider buy simply a show of confidence for shareholders after the stock’s big slide, or does the uniquely well-placed investor have some insights into what Trump 2.0 might hold for healthcare stocks? Here’s a closer look at OSCR.
About Oscar Health Stock
Founded in 2012 and rebranded in 2021, Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) is an innovator in insurance valued at $3.6 billion by market cap. It blends individual and small group health plans with +Oscar, a tech-powered platform driving value-based care. From reinsurance to digital transformation, Oscar Health redefines the future of healthcare delivery with a sharp focus on technology and smarter outcomes.
Shares of this Russell 2000 Index (RUT) component skyrocketed a whopping 134.5% over the past 52 weeks, easily outpacing the broader market.
Oscar Health’s Mixed Q3 Results
Oscar Health’s fiscal Q3 earnings, released on Nov. 7, painted a mixed picture. Revenue soared 68% year over year to $2.4 billion, surpassing Wall Street's expectations, fueled by membership growth and rate hikes. However, the $0.22 per share loss was a 24.1% improvement from last year, but still fell short of projections.
Membership climbed an impressive 68.3% to 1.65 million, showcasing robust demand for its individual and small group health plans, and underscoring the appeal of its digital-first model. Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $11.6 million, improving by $8.7 million year-over-year. However, the medical loss ratio (MLR) ticked up to 84.6%, reflecting higher costs from Special Enrollment Period (SEP) memberships and a rise in COVID-related claims.
Management projects full-year revenue between $9.2 billion and $9.3 billion, $200 million above previous guidance. SG&A expense ratio is expected to narrow further, landing between 19.4% and 19.6%. However, the company anticipates MLR pressures from competitive pricing and SEP dynamics, projecting it toward the higher end of 80.5% to 81.5%.
Oscar Health is forecasting net income profitability by year-end and laying the groundwork for a 5% operating margin by 2027. Analysts tracking Oscar Health project the company’s GAAP loss per share to narrow to $0.01 in fiscal 2024 and then swing to a profit of $0.51 per share in fiscal 2025.
Josh Kushner Builds His OSCR Stake
Josh Kushner, founder of the venture capital firm Thrive Capital, has gained a reputation on Wall Street for backing the likes of Stripe and OpenAI. Separately, he’s well-known in Washington, D.C., as the brother of Jared Kushner, who served in the first administration of his father-in-law, Donald Trump.
Kushner is also the co-founder and vice chair of OSCR, so it’s noteworthy that he just bought shares for the first time in three years. Over the course of two days after the stock’s post-election slump, he scooped up a tranche of 1.05 million shares at an average price of $13.67, followed by 344,000 shares at $15.80.
After spending about $19.87 million on Oscar Health stock over two days, Kushner’s stake now stands at 2.9%.
What’s Next for Oscar Health Stock?
Per CNBC, some policy experts agree that enhanced ACA subsidies are unlikely to be renewed when they expire at the end of 2025, given the incoming administration’s stated focus on cost-cutting. In the meantime, analysts remain mostly optimistic about OSCR, though the healthcare stock has recently attracted its first “Sell” rating.
Oscar Health has a consensus “Moderate Buy” recommendation overall, with three “Strong Buys,” one “Moderate Buy,” two “Holds,” and one “Moderate Sell.” The average analyst price target of $21.64 indicates a potential upside of 21.2% from here.
