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Mark Orders

What's at stake on Judgement Day and how Wales could yet have two teams in next season's Champions Cup

Once, a full house of losses for the regions would have prompted back-page headlines and possibly strongly worded opinion pieces to go with them.

There would doubtless have been much chatter on social media.

But Welsh rugby is enduring such difficult times that defeats on the same weekend for Cardiff, Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets are these days greeted with something bordering on resignation. All four came unstuck in round 17 of the United Rugby Championship, with some performing less impressively than others.

Next season, amid player departures and tightening financial circumstances, the outlook isn’t going to improve.

It's a dispiriting situation.

Read more: Rhys Webb CV 'doing rounds' in France as Wales scrum-half ponders future

That said, three of the four regions do still have something tangible to play for in 2022-23.

And it’s not wildly inconceivable that Wales could have two entrants in next season’s Heineken Champions Cup.

We take a look at what’s at stake ahead of Judgement Day on Saturday and over the rest of the campaign.

Cardiff and Ospreys

These two play each other this weekend with each still having hopes of topping the Welsh Shield and so qualifying for next term’s Heineken Champions Cup.

Whether it’s much of a prize, to be competing against Europe’s best on a budget some might describe as shoestring, is another matter. There is prestige on the line and comparing notes with the best on the continent still means a lot to those involved.

Cardiff are in the box seat. They are on 39 points, four clear of the Ospreys and five clear of the Scarlets.

But they have also won more games than their rivals and so will claim the Shield if they pick up a point at the Principality Stadium.

The Ospreys will finish top in this local struggle if they win with a bonus point and deny Cardiff a match point in the process.

Neither side will head into the game with momentum.

Even taking into account that they each seemed to be on the wrong end of a number of questionable refereeing calls in their Saturday evening matches, they didn’t play well in their most recent jousts.

Cardiff were second best to an impressive Connacht team in Galway, with the likes of Bundee Aki, Mack Hansen and Jack Carty to the fore for the hosts, while the Ospreys were poor on the road against Edinburgh, failing to recover from a woeful opening that saw them leak four tries in the opening 20 minutes. Back in the day, the south-west Wales region were renowned for their miserly defence, but they were slack as the game kicked into gear with the Scots snaffling two intercept tries. Cardiff were let down significantly by their lineout.

George North of Ospreys is tackled by Damien Hoyland of Edinburgh and Pierre Schoeman (Huw Evans Agency)

Both will want to end the season on a relative high, though, with the odds in favour of Cardiff doing so.

Scarlets

The Scarlets will head into their Judgement Day clash against the Dragons knowing that they can’t win the Welsh Shield.

Despite their fine form in Europe, they have been unable to rectify the damage in the United Rugby Championship caused by a calamitous start that saw them win just one of their first 10 matches.

That said, there is still a route for them to make it into next season’s Heineken Champions Cup.

For the winners of the EPCR Challenge Cup qualify for the top-tier event and the Scarlets have home advantage against Glasgow Warriors in the semi-final in west Wales on April 29.

There was little between the sides when they met at Scotstoun last Friday evening, but only so much should be read into that match, with rain playing a huge part and both sides making wholesale changes.

Kieran Hardy kicks under atrocious weather conditions (Huw Evans Agency)

Quietly, the Welsh side might fancy their chances.

While Glasgow are one of the most dangerous sides in the URC, the Scarlets haven’t lost at home since October with their last five games in Llanelli seeing them beat Clermont Auvergne, Brive, Sharks, Edinburgh and Bulls. For those in any doubt, that’s quite a quintet of victims.

The side that emerges triumphant a week on Saturday will play the winners of the Toulon v Benetton tie.

Two significant European hurdles ahead, then, but the Scarlets have done well to breathe life into a season that looked in danger of coming to nothing at one stage.

Dwayne Peel’s selection against the Dragons will be interesting. Does he opt for a fully loaded side to give his first choices the chance of a tune-up before the Glasgow date? Or does he hold back some key players and in the process guard against injuries?

It’s an important call for Peel, one he will think hard over.

Dragons

They will enter the final round of the regular season with their league position locked in whatever the result against the Scarlets.

Nine points ahead of bottom-placed Zebre and 15 adrift of the 14th-placed Scarlets, they will finish 15th out of 16 in the table however it's painted.

That will disappoint after the promise of early season when the Dragons won three of their first seven United Rugby Championship encounters.

Since then, the east Walians have been erratic, failing to back up decent performances and too often playing in spurts.

They were much better against Ulster on Friday evening, but, there again, the bar was set low after the 73-33 April Fool’s Day thrashing at the hands of Glasgow.

There were some fine tries from and encouraging moments against Ulster, but they were unable to sustain their level of performance over 80 minutes, albeit the Kingspan Stadium is a testing venue for any visiting side.

Still, how you finish matters and they will want to bang in a big display against the Scarlets.

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