Lewis Hamilton became the most successful Formula 1 driver in history because of a complete belief in his own abilities.
This conviction is something I’ve seen him carry from the moment I first met him at his house in Stevenage more than 25 years ago, when he was just a young karter setting his sights on making it all the way to the top.
So Hamilton’s remarks in Qatar last weekend, amid another difficult weekend, that he was “not fast anymore” certainly seemed to go against the grain of all that we know Hamilton to be.
But do not think for one second that Hamilton thinks he is past it and no longer capable of delivering any more on track. That much was made clear 24 hours later when he declared that he knew he “has still got it”.
Instead, Hamilton’s remarks have to be seen in the context of what has perhaps been the most mentally challenging season of his career.
Results have been hard to get, he has faced a car that he does not particularly get on well with, and this is all against the backdrop of being in a complicated scenario where he is operating within a team that he is leaving.
And what has perhaps made things most difficult is that there has been no obvious explanation as to why he has struggled so much with the W15 compared to team-mate George Russell, especially on Saturdays. It fuels the question: is it the car or is it him?
From the outside it has been hard enough to understand just how Hamilton can go from being lost at sea in the Brazilian Grand Prix, for example, to being in blistering form at the Las Vegas GP the following race, charging up from 10th on the grid to finish second.
But even the man in the cockpit cannot get to the bottom of what is happening.
Asked last weekend in Qatar about what his best explanation for it was, Hamilton said: “I don't even know where to start. It's different every weekend.
“There's nothing I can say that's going to make any difference. Stuff that we're working on in the background.
“The working window that you have with a car, some people have a bigger working window, some have a narrower working window in terms of the aero package. There's the tyres.
"If you look at the last race [in Las Vegas], why were we so fast? Because we could get the tyres in the window and others struggled. Everyone's facing something different.
“I know what we're working on with our document, and the things we go through, and it's very technical, but it's not really something I want to really bring up…”
The unusually large gaps between Hamilton and Russell have inevitably prompted theories from fans that there has to be some sort of disparity between the cars – because the 0.4 seconds margin between them in Qatar last weekend for example is not the sort of difference that could be expected in pure driver difference.
For most of the year the cars have been in equal spec, with only a few notable exceptions. In Monaco, Russell got the latest front wing after Hamilton declined it because there were no spares available – so a crash in qualifying would mean a pitlane start in the race.
Then there was also the shifting of specs around the United States and Mexican Grands Prix, when the latest upgrade appeared to trigger some nervous balance characteristics that prompted spins and crashes for both drivers – and the need to send new parts back to Brackley for repairs.
But amid all the rollercoaster form, and the lack of answers, at a time when Hamilton is not a part of the team’s future, it was perhaps inevitable that there would be elements of suspicions from some – and especially his fans - about hidden motives being at play to explain what is happening. Has the car development direction gone in Russell's way a lot more, for example?
Events like the strategy choices in the Belgian GP, where Russell was allowed to commit to a one-stop, plus the soft tyre choice for Hamilton in Singapore that backfired, have only served to further fuel such ideas.
But Mercedes boss Toto Wolff has rubbished such conspiracy theories.
“We love our fans, they contribute to what we are,” he said. “And the other ones who believe that they need to create some crazy made-up conspiracies, it doesn't even bother me. They're just idiots.
“They have no understanding, probably never put their foot in a racing car, and maybe not even a normal car. You need to show me some of that stuff, just for me to have a laugh.”
On top of the questions about the car is the lingering self-doubt that Hamilton has inevitably had as the results have been harder to get – in spite of him digging deeper and training harder than ever to make sure he is in the best shape possible.
He cannot fight the marching of time and there is no doubt that he needs to be on his A-game to deliver all that he was capable of in the past. So when the results are not there, it is not difficult to see why he perhaps questions if there is a fading of his brilliance.
As he said after winning the British GP: “It's so tough, I think for anyone. But I think the important thing is just how you continue to get up in this and you have got to continue to dig deep, even when you feel like you're at the bottom of the barrel.
"There's definitely been days between 2021 and now where I didn't feel like I was good enough, or where I was going to get back to where I am today.
“The important thing is I have great people around me continuing to support me. My team, every time I turn up and see them put in the effort, that really encouraged me to do the same thing.”
But the way that things have trailed off since the summer break, and perhaps hit their low point in Qatar where everything that could go wrong seemed to go wrong, makes it clear to see that dealing with all that has happened has been really difficult.
When too there is no explanation for the good nor the bad days, that makes it impossible to chart a path out of it – which then makes things even worse.
And in an era where mental health is a major talking point, sometimes it is easy to forget that even the world’s bigger superstars can face big challenges themselves that are not obvious to the outside.
You can sense hearing from Hamilton that all he wants to do right now is get through the Abu Dhabi weekend and close the Mercedes chapter.
“I don't think we're going to end up in a high,” he said. “It will end and I think what's important is how we turn up, we give it our best shot.
“I don't anticipate a particularly much better weekend than we've had in the past weekends, but naturally I'll try. Going with low hopes and come out with a better result doesn't really make a big difference either way.”
But while the Hamilton/Mercedes partnership may not end with the kind of joyful triumph that marked much of their many years together – and even Wolff admits what is happening right now “hurts” – when the chapter closes on Sunday night in Abu Dhabi, the positive memories are those that will likely pervade.
As Wolff said last weekend: “When he took the decision at the beginning of the season to go, we knew it could be a bumpy year ahead and it's very normal. He knows he's going to go somewhere else. We know our future lies with Kimi [Antonelli].
“So to then go through the up and downs, and still keep it together between us, I think that is something we have achieved.
“You see those very bad races. Clearly, he wears his heart on the sleeve. You express your emotions and that's absolutely allowed. It's okay.
“But nothing is going to take away 12 incredible years with eight constructors’ and six drivers’ championships. And that is what will be in the memory.
“After next Sunday, we're going to look back at this great period of time rather than a season of races that were particularly bad. We will stay with the good memories.”
When Hamilton went into winter exile after the events of the 2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, he returned with an iconic tweet shortly before action got under way again.
With another reset coming and the excitement of a new career chapter opening up to him at Ferrari, with a car that seems to be much more together than the tricky W15, few would bet against a rejuvenation off the back of a mental refresh that allows him to hit the ground running from Australia next year.
And were he to do it, there would be no better response, than that short message coming out again: “I’ve been gone. Now I’m back.”
