In 2022, his second season as Ohio State’s starting quarterback, C.J. Stroud proved himself to be a top-tier NCAA starter, and quite possibly a top-five pick in the 2023 NFL draft. Certainly top 10 — when you have a guy who’s able to get things done in the pocket as Stroud has proven to over those last two seasons, well, this is what most NFL shot-callers want. This season, per Sports Info Solutions, Stroud has completed 201 of 295 passes from the pocket for 2,942 yards, 1,647 air yards, 29 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a passer rating of 124.7. Stroud with a clean pocket, from in the pocket, can make explosive plays like this all day long.
If you want a quarterback who can lead his receiver open on a deep post, as Stroud did for 44 yards to receiver Emeka Egbuka against Michigan? Stroud is aa complete a pocket passer as the NCAA will churn out this season.
The problem with Stroud is the perception that he needs things in the box to be prepared correctly for everything to work. When throwing outside the pocket in 2022, Stroud has completed 34 of 60 passes for 398 yards, 259 air yards, eight touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 116.5. At that point, Stroud can create explosive plays… but the efficiency is not the same. Most of those touchdowns outside the pocket came on easy boot looks in the red zone, allowing Stroud to stay within his comfort zone, and still using movement to stretch a defense.
This two-yard touchdown pass to receiver Gee Scott Jr. against Michigan State is one example of the basic template.
Where the problems come around is when Stroud is pressured. Of course, there is no quarterback who’s better when under pressure, but the splits for Stroud are legitimately disconcerting. Without pressure this season, Stroud has completed 199 of 276 passes for 2,779 yards, 1,558 air yards, 30 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 134.3.
When pressured? We’re talking about a different quarterback. Then, Stroud has completed 36 of 79 passes for 561 yards, 347 air yards, seven touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 88.6. Probably the most impressive throw Stroud made under pressure this season was this 19-yard banger of a touchdown to Marvin Harrison Jr. against Michigan State. Stroud didn’t care that he had stuff happening at his feet; he was going to make the precise throw for the big play.
More often than not, though, those pressure throws have a high rate of after-the-catch yardage, and when Stroud is pressed in the pocket, running out in a non-designed way to extend the play really isn’t front of mind. Moreover, Stroud seems to break down too easily with the threat of pressure — he’s unsure, he’ll drift in the pocket instead of re-defining the pocket with movement, and this leads to a lot of unfortunate incompletions.
Why does this matter? Because Stroud is playing either his final or penultimate game in the CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Saturday night. And his task will be to solve a Georgia defense that has 25 sacks, 91 quarterback hits, and 160 quarterback hurries in 2022. Georgia also has defensive lineman Jalen Carter, the best overall prospect in this upcoming draft class. If he wants to get to the final against the winner of Michigan-TCU, it will be of paramount importance for Stroud to navigate pressure in ways he often struggles to do.
Stroud has just five completions of 20 or more air yards this season when pressured, so maybe the best bet for head coach Ryan Day and his staff will be to get the ball out at intermediate levels, and count on Stroud’s receivers to take it from there. Trying to beat Georgia with the “death by 1,000 paper cuts” strategy probably isn’t going to work. Perhaps “gradual unconsciousness by 50 staples” is a better bet. We can talk about putting Harrison (Stroud’s best receiver) one-on-one with iso looks and spread formations to make those pressured throws a bit easier, as was the case against Michigan State…
…but as Georgia cornerback Kelee Ringo might be matching up to Harrison more often than not, and Ringo is a likely top-10 talent in 2023 just as Stroud is, that could become complicated.
The point is, there are things Ohio State can do from a schematic perspective to soften the blow. But if they are to really offset the supreme challenge of Georgia’s defense, it’ll be up to C.J. Stroud to be the best version of himself in the pocket… and perhaps a version we’ve rarely seen after things break down. Which they unquestionably will.
