River flows are complex but despite our best attempts to harness control over them, history demonstrates that floods are inevitable.
With the current inundation threatening the border towns of Echuca, Moama and Kerang, there are concerns about how the Murray River system further downstream will be impacted.
Looking back at previous flood events along the rivers could provide important insight into lessons learnt from previous disasters, such as the three-month-long 1956 floods that devastated whole communities living along the tributaries.
Diaries provide insight into past floods
Retired citrus grower Alan Whyte has drawn many comparisons with previous floods that have affected the Murray and Darling River communities.
He is the third generation of the Whyte family to farm in the Pomona region of New South Wales, and his family has maintained extensive records of the movements of the Darling River dating back to the 1890s.
It is his grandfather's diarised daily accounts of the rise of the 1956 floods that provides a valuable insight into how the community prepared for and coped with that devastating event.
Diary entries from Verco Whyte describe how the township rallied together to build levee banks and sandbag walls that saved essential town electricity supplies and the Wentworth District Hospital from inundation.
During that time farmers were stranded for months, and they used boats to harvest and transport citrus to town and to buy supplies.
"The only way in and out was by boat, so my grandfather would take a load of fruit into town each day between working on the levee banks," Mr Whyte says.
While the 1956 floods were not the biggest to hit either the Murray or the Darling Rivers, the severity of them was a result of both rivers flooding at the same time.
The town of Wentworth sits at the junction of both the Murray and Darling Rivers in far south-west NSW. While the town had ample warning of the high flows expected from both river fronts, residents were not prepared for the degree of flooding, the duration or the scale of the clean up.
As the first rains hit, farmers from the nearby towns of Mildura, Red Cliffs and Wentworth rallied together to build levee banks using their little grey Massey Ferguson tractors to protect the town's hospital, power stations and major infrastructure.
"There's a lot of things people could learn from what's happened in the past," Mr Whyte says.
Mr Whyte is concerned that the region's towns are not prepared for a large-scale flood event.
For decades, he has been an active spokesperson on the area's water issues. In 2019 he provided evidence to the Royal Commission into the Murray Darling Basin Plan on behalf of the South West Water Users Group.
He says with water catchments at capacity, ground moisture high, and a fourth year of La Niña, the community needs to be on alert to the potential for another big flood event.
"We haven't had a decent flood since the mid-1970s, and it's well and truly time we had one," he says.
New housing built on flood plains
Mr Whyte said one of the greatest concerns was the housing developments that have been built on the flood plains, which were essential for dispersing excess rainwater.
"If floodwater can't spread out like it used to on the flood plains that are now developed, towns along the river around Mildura and Wentworth are going to see much higher flood levels," he says.
Mr Whyte says floods are inevitable as they are a natural river process, but the height of the river can be influenced by the built environment.
"How high the flood level will reach is difficult to forecast, but it's not a matter of if it will flood again, but when," he says.
Preparing for today's floods
Helen Dalton is the member for Murray. She is also concerned about the potential for flooding and the impact on her community along the New South Wales side of the Murray River near Wentworth.
"With all the water moving down the Murray, then you add water coming in from the Darling, it's going to create a lot of pressure on Wentworth," Ms Dalton says.
Ms Dalton echoes the concerns of Mr Whyte on the impact of housing developments and infrastructure on low-lying areas along the riverbanks, and how that may influence floodwater movement.
"There's been a lot of development. It could change the whole course of where the floodwater goes," she says.
"We've seen it in other places where there are housing developments, with people forgetting that back in the day, they were low-lying and they were susceptible to flooding. I think people have short memories and that's a real concern."
Ms Dalton has been watching the recent weather forecast and river flow projections closely, as further heavy rain is expected for the region this week.
"We've also got an La Niña forecast, that's going to add another complexity to what's already going on," she says.
"All the tributaries and creeks are full and flowing into the Murray and the Darling in addition to the outer rivers, too. These big flows into the Murray and the Darling are going to create quite a problem."
