Among the many things the Falcons need to tackle this offseason, determining the future of Calvin Ridley is near the top of the list.
In 2021, Ridley played in five of the first six games before being placed on the non-football injury list for the remainder of the season as he dealt with a mental health issue. While team owner Arthur Blank said he hopes to see the former first-round pick return in 2022, there hasn’t been a real update in quite some time.
Considering the NFL scouting combine is fully under way in Indianapolis, the lack of clarity regarding Ridley’s future in Atlanta is a tad concerning. The team exercised his fifth-year option last offseason, meaning Ridley is set to make $11.12 million in 2022, the final year of his deal.
Whether he plays in Atlanta or somewhere else next season, expect Ridley to receive a long-term extension before the offseason concludes.
Cutting Ridley outright would mean the Falcons would be on the hook for all $11.12 million, but a trade would take his cap hit off the books. With the team currently several million over the salary cap, a trade makes the most sense for Atlanta.
At face value, the Falcons probably would like to see a first-round pick included as compensation for Ridley. However, as I told Kelsey Kramer from Heavy.com, getting that kind of a return feels like a bit of a stretch at the moment.
Atlanta may want to start by saying a first-rounder must be included, but I’m not entirely sure a team is willing to risk a first on Ridley. The Falcons could possibly still get a first-rounder from teams such as the Eagles (three first-round picks), Dolphins (two first-round picks), or Lions (two first-round picks). The Lions, who definitely need a receiver, could be a prime landing spot with their 32nd overall selection they acquired in the Matthew Stafford trade.
The Giants and Jets both possess two top-10 picks, but it’s unlikely for either team to give up such a high selection for Ridley. If the Falcons do indeed demand a first-round pick as compensation, then I would circle New England, Las Vegas, Green Bay, Miami, and Detroit as the teams most likely to jump. These teams all pick in the back half of the first round and are in need of a receiver.
So, what would the appropriate compensation for Ridley be?
Let’s start by looking at the 2020 trade of receiver Stefon Diggs. When the Vikings traded Diggs to the Bills, they received Buffalo’s first, fifth and sixth-round picks in 2020, along with a fourth-round pick in 2021.
However, the stock for Stefon Diggs in 2020 was much higher than what it is presumed to be for Ridley. Diggs was coming off a 1,100-yard season and spent a large portion of that campaign as the first option while Adam Thielen dealt with injuries.
For as talented as Ridley is, he barely played this season, and wasn’t super effective when he was on the field. Both of those issues will make it hard for another team to stomach giving up a first-round pick.
Realistically, an early-to-mid second-round pick is about the best offer Atlanta can expect.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell laid out a trade proposal that saw Atlanta send Ridley to New England for a second-round pick and edge rusher Chase Winovich. This is the kind of value I would expect to see the Falcons get in return.
