At 0-2, the odds are stacked against the Colts when it comes to making the playoffs this year. But what are those exact odds?
Since 1990, of the 279 teams to begin their respective seasons 0-2, only 32 of them have turned it around and made the playoffs.
However, those teams have zero bearing on how the rest of the Colts’ season plays out. So with this specific Colts roster, what are their playoff chances heading into Week 3?
Well, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Colts currently have a 22.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. Only eight teams have lower odds as of now.
This projection from ESPN’s FPI system is based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the NFL season, factoring in the results to date and what has been learned, along with the remaining schedule for each team.
Obviously, there is need for improvement on both sides of the ball for the Colts, but any sort of turnaround has to begin with the run defense improving. Through two games, the Colts have given up almost 500 yards on the ground to Houston and Green Bay.
A poor run defense is often just way too much to consistently overcome because it negatively impacts just about every other aspect of the game.
The Colts have steadily been playing from behind for two weeks. The opposing offense has dominated the time of possession, wearing the down the Colts defense while giving the offense limited opportunities.
And because the Colts offense has so few possessions, it requires them to be extremely efficient if they’re going to come away with the win–something that just isn’t sustainable. It can also make leaning on the run game more challenging when consistently playing from behind.
Again, that isn’t to say there aren’t other areas on this Colts team that don’t need improvement, but until the run defense gets significantly better, those issues will take a back seat for now.
