It’s the moment every bracket hopeful dreams of—standing atop the leaderboard, one pick away from victory. And then, there it is: a tie.
Bracket pools can be unpredictable, shaped by buzzer-beaters, Cinderella runs, and unforeseen collapses. But when two entries sit deadlocked at the top, a tiebreaker decides the winner. That tiebreaker? The total combined score of the national championship game.
So, how do you make the best guess? It’s part science, part instinct, and a little bit of luck.
THE BRACKET 🙌#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/fo6lA8hJ7g
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 16, 2025
History as Your Guide
March Madness lives up to its name for a reason—nothing ever follows a script. Yet, history leaves clues. If you’re looking for an edge in your bracket pool, start with the numbers.
Over the last 10 national championship games, the final combined scores have ranged from as low as 114 points (UConn vs. Kentucky in 2014) to as high as 162 (Virginia vs. Texas Tech in 2019, which included overtime). But if you average those numbers out, the sweet spot lands at 140.2 total points.
Here’s a closer look at the last 10 championship game totals:
- 2024: UConn 75, Purdue 60 (135 total)
- 2023: UConn 76, San Diego State 59 (135)
- 2022: Kansas 72, North Carolina 69 (141)
- 2021: Baylor 86, Gonzaga 70 (156)
- 2019: Virginia 85, Texas Tech 77 (OT) (162)
- 2018: Villanova 79, Michigan 62 (141)
- 2017: North Carolina 71, Gonzaga 65 (136)
- 2016: Villanova 77, North Carolina 74 (151)
- 2015: Duke 68, Wisconsin 63 (131)
- 2014: UConn 60, Kentucky 54 (114)
The stage is set. San Diego State vs UConn. pic.twitter.com/ICNLxoVZsR
— K.C. Alfred (@KCAlfredPhoto) March 28, 2024
Since 2000, the average combined total in the men’s national title game is 141 points. But college basketball is anything but predictable. In 2011, Butler and UConn combined for just 94 points in one of the lowest-scoring championship games ever. On the other end of the spectrum, Baylor and Gonzaga’s up-tempo 2021 matchup saw 156 points.
Does the Regular Season Matter?
One of the biggest misconceptions is that tournament games are drastically different from regular-season play when it comes to scoring. In reality, the numbers are remarkably similar.
During the 2024-25 regular season, teams averaged 74 points per game, a slight uptick from the previous year’s 73.5. That translates to 148 total points per game on average—a number not far from the championship game trends.
While nerves and higher stakes can occasionally lead to lower scores in the Final Four, the offensive flow of the sport remains consistent. Championship game totals generally fall between 140 and 155 points, aligning with regular-season trends.
Finding the Magic Number
So, what’s the ideal tiebreaker guess for your bracket?
- Want to play it safe? History suggests 140-145 points is a reliable window.
- Think it’ll be a defensive slugfest? Drop your number closer to 130-135.
- Expecting a fast-paced shootout? Aim for 150-155.
The reality is, no perfect formula exists. March Madness is unpredictable, filled with twists that no analytics model can fully account for. But if history, trends, and gut instinct meet at one place, it’s this: somewhere between 140 and 150 points is your best bet.
When your bracket pool comes down to one final number, let the numbers guide you—but don’t be afraid to embrace the madness.
List of NCAA Tournament Championship Scores & Totals Since 1987
| Year | Final Score | Total Points |
| 2024 | UConn 75, Purdue 60 | 135 |
| 2023 | UConn 76, San Diego State 59 | 135 |
| 2022 | Kansas 72, UNC 69 | 141 |
| 2021 | Baylor 86, Gonzaga 70 | 146 |
| 2020 | No tournament (COVID) | N/A |
| 2019 | Virginia 85, Texas Tech 77 (OT) | 162 |
| 2018 | Villanova 79, Michigan 62 | 141 |
| 2017 | UNC 71, Gonzaga 65 | 136 |
| 2016 | Villanova 77, UNC 74 | 151 |
| 2015 | Duke 68, Wisconsin 63 | 131 |
| 2014 | UConn 60, Kentucky 54 | 114 |
| 2013 | Louisville 82, Michigan 76 | 158 |
| 2012 | Kentucky 67, Kansas 59 | 126 |
| 2011 | UConn 53, Butler 41 | 94 |
| 2010 | Duke 61, Butler 59 | 120 |
| 2009 | UNC 89, Michigan State 72 | 161 |
| 2008 | Kansas 75, Memphis 68 (OT) | 143 |
| 2007 | Florida 84, Ohio State 75 | 159 |
| 2006 | Florida 73, UCLA 57 | 140 |
| 2005 | UNC 75, Illinois 70 | 145 |
| 2004 | UConn 82, Georgia Tech 73 | 155 |
| 2003 | Syracuse 81, Kansas 78 | 159 |
| 2002 | Maryland 64, Indiana 52 | 106 |
| 2001 | Duke 82, Arizona 72 | 154 |
| 2000 | Michigan State 89, Florida 76 | 165 |
| 1999 | UConn 77, Duke 74 | 151 |
| 1998 | Kentucky 78, Utah 69 | 147 |
| 1997 | Arizona 84, Louisville 79 (OT) | 163 |
| 1996 | Kentucky 76, Syracuse 67 | 143 |
| 1995 | UCLA 89, Arkansas 78 | 167 |
| 1994 | Arkansas 76, Duke 72 | 148 |
| 1993 | UNC 77, Michigan 71 | 148 |
| 1992 | Duke 71, Michigan 51 | 122 |
| 1991 | Duke 72, Kansas 65 | 137 |
| 1990 | UNLV 103, Duke 73 | 186 |
| 1989 | Michigan 80, Seton Hall 79 (OT) | 159 |
| 1988 | Kansas 83, Oklahoma 79 | 162 |
| 1987 | Indiana 74, Syracuse 73 | 144 |
