Senate negotiators presented their long-awaited national security bill on Sunday, after months of talks over funding for US allies abroad and changes to border policy. By Tuesday, it was clear it was not likely to pass either chamber of Congress.
The Senate is still expected to vote on the bill on Wednesday. But members of both parties have already voiced criticism of the bill, and the House speaker, the Republican Mike Johnson of Louisiana, has declared the proposal would be “dead on arrival” in the lower chamber.
Here’s everything you need to know about the bill:
How much funding would the bill provide to US allies abroad?
The $118bn bill includes $60bn in military assistance for Ukraine, $14bn in security assistance for Israel and $10bn in humanitarian assistance for civilians affected by war in Ukraine, Gaza and the West Bank.
Another $4.83bn would be used to support US allies in the Indo-Pacific and “deter China”, while $2.4bn would be directed toward assisting US military operations related to conflict in the Red Sea.
What border policy changes are included in the bill?
The legislation has been described as the most severe set of changes to border policy in decades. If passed, the bill would provide $20bn in funding to bolster and expand border security operations at a time when arrests for illegal crossings at the US-Mexican border have hit record highs.
In one of the most significant proposals, Joe Biden would have the option to shut down the border if average daily crossings surpassed 4,000 in a week. If average daily crossings surpassed 5,000 or if the single-day total of crossings exceeded 8,500, then the president would be required to close the border.
The bill would also provide funding to hire additional asylum officers and expedite the review process for asylum claims. If enacted, the legislation would raise the threshold of eligibility for submitting an asylum claim, making it harder for migrants to even start the process.
Despite many Republicans’ calls for changes to the parole system, the bill would retain Biden’s ability to grant parole on a case-by-case basis. The bill would also authorize an additional 250,000 immigrant visas to be distributed over the next five fiscal years.
What has Joe Biden said about the bill?
Biden has voiced strong support for the bill and called on Congress to “come together and swiftly pass this bipartisan agreement”.
“It will make our country safer, make our border more secure, treat people fairly and humanely while preserving legal immigration, consistent with our values as a nation,” Biden said in a statement released on Sunday.
Where do Republicans stand on the bill?
Republicans are sharply divided over the proposal, with some criticizing the proposal even before the bill text was released on Sunday. Senator James Lankford, a Republican of Oklahoma who helped broker the deal, praised the bill as a “once-in-a-generation opportunity to close our open border and give future administrations the effective tools they need to stop the border chaos and protect our nation”.
The top Senate Republican, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, has urged his colleagues to take action on the border, saying in a statement released on Sunday: “The challenges we face will not resolve themselves, nor will our adversaries wait for America to muster the resolve to meet them. The Senate must carefully consider the opportunity in front of us and prepare to act.”
But other prominent Republicans, including Johnson, have already rejected the deal. In the days leading up to the bill’s release, Johnson and his allies attacked the proposal as insufficient, suggesting Biden should instead take executive action to address the situation at the border.
“I’ve seen enough. This bill is even worse than we expected, and won’t come close to ending the border catastrophe the president has created,” Johnson said on Sunday. “If this bill reaches the House, it will be dead on arrival.”
Donald Trump, who has made immigration a central focus of his presidential campaign, has similarly called on Republicans to oppose the bill. Writing on his social media platform Truth Social on Monday, Trump dismissed the bill as “nothing more than a highly sophisticated trap for Republicans to assume the blame on what the Radical Left Democrats have done to our Border, just in time for our most important EVER Election”.
In a pointed speech on Tuesday, Biden criticized Republicans for “caving” to Trump’s demands on the bill, accusing them of prioritizing their political goals over the nation’s best interests.
“All indications are this bill won’t even move forward to the Senate floor. Why? A simple reason: Donald Trump. Because Donald Trump thinks it’s bad for him politically,” Biden said at the White House. “It’s time for Republicans in the Congress to show a little courage, to show a little spine, to make it clear to the American people that you work for them – not for anyone else.”
Have progressive Democrats voiced concern about the bill’s border provisions?
Several progressive lawmakers in the House and the Senate have indicated they cannot support the bill because of its severe border security measures. Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal, a Democrat of Washington and chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said the bill “throws immigrants under the political bus”.
Senator Alex Padilla, a California Democrat and chair of the Senate judiciary subcommittee on immigration, citizenship and border safety, slammed the bill negotiating process as opaque, noting that no member of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus participated in the talks.
“It is critical that we support our allies in their fight to defend democracy and provide humanitarian relief, but not at the expense of dismantling our asylum system while ultimately failing to alleviate the challenges at our border,” Padilla said.
Can the bill still make it through Congress?
It appears not. The Senate is still expected to vote on the bill on Wednesday, and 60 votes will be required to advance the legislation through the 100-member chamber. The day before the planned vote, even the most vocal supporters of the bill, including McConnell, acknowledged that it was unlikely to pass.
“It looks to me and to most of our members is that we have no real chance here to make a law,” McConnell said on Tuesday.
Even if the bill could somehow make it through the Senate, Johnson has the ability to block it from advancing in the House. Given hard-right Republicans’ strident opposition to the bill, Johnson will not hesitate to use that power.
If the bill fails, what might be next in the fight over funding for Ukraine and Israel?
Johnson has tried to advance a standalone bill providing funding for Israel, but the House blocked that legislation on Tuesday. McConnell has argued that, with the border bill probably dead, the Senate should turn its attention to passing a funding package that would provide financial support to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan but would not address border security.
“We still, in my view, ought to tackle the rest of it because it’s important,” McConnell said on Tuesday. “Not that the border isn’t important, but we can’t get an outcome. So that’s where I think we ought to head.”
The Senate majority leader, the Democrat Chuck Schumer of New York, appeared ready to move forward on that if the border bill fails on Wednesday, but it is worth noting that Republicans blocked a similar package from advancing in December. With no clear path to ending the standoff, Biden has warned members of Congress that their actions carry global consequences.
“It’s time to stop playing games with the world waiting and watching. And by the way, the world is waiting. The world is watching,” Biden said on Tuesday. “They are waiting to watch what we’re going to do. We cannot, we can’t continue to let petty partisan politics get in the way of responsibility.”
