Rishi Sunak is facing a rebellion from his own MPs over plans to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda.
A Commons vote on Tuesday (December 12) will decide if the amended proposals will placate those with human rights concerns as well as Conservatives who do not think they go far enough.
The opposition is such that the prime minister could reportedly face votes of no confidence from Tories who are unhappy with the policy and direction.
Moderate members are reportedly onside but the issue has led to the departure of Robert Jenrick as immigration minister.
Mr Sunak has called backing the bill as “the British thing to do” but faces a tough day in the Commons, but could it be the beginning of the end?
What is a motion of no confidence?
A confidence motion is a way of testing whether the Prime Minister and their Cabinet still has the support of the House of Commons.
It has the power to trigger a general election and could see a new prime minister appointed.
Under rules in place since 2011, if the Government loses, it has 14 days to try to win back the confidence of MPs through another vote.
At the same time, opposition parties can try to form their own alternative government.
After a fortnight, if no resolution is found, an election is automatically called.
Is there precedent for such a motion?
Yes, plenty – including votes that have ended up bringing down the Government.
The James Callaghan Labour administration lost a confidence vote in 1979, which paved the way for a general election and Margaret Thatcher’s 11-year reign.
During the Brexit deadlock, Theresa May survived a confidence vote in January 2019 after it had been called for by then Labour and opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Despite the motion being rejected by 325 to 306 votes, Mrs May would end up quitting as prime minister months later after failing to garner support for her EU exit deal.
What happens after the vote of no confidence?
If the government wins, it will remain in situ. It would win or lose by as few as one vote either way.
If it loses, it is likely that Parliament would be dissolved and an early general election could be called. It is possible that the King could invite a new government to be formed of a coalition or a new Conservative government to form, but this seems unlikely and this does not have the same precedent.
There is nothing to state that Mr Sunak would have to resign but this might be an encouraged action.
