THERE was confusion amid the elation at Hampden on Friday night after Scotland had beaten Croatia to finally end their 10 match winless run in competitive games.
It was clear the result, secured courtesy of the goal that substitute John McGinn netted with four minutes of regulation time remaining following a break by teenage winger Ben Doak, kept alive the national team’s chances of remaining in the top tier of the Nations League.
But word started to circulate, including in the hosts’ camp, that Steve Clarke’s men were no longer able to finish second in Group A1 and go through to the quarter-finals of the competition next year.
It took confirmation from tournament organisers UEFA fully half an hour after Israeli referee Orel Grinfeeld had blown the final whistle to establish that Scotland could still in fact progress to the last eight.
So what has to happen in the final round of fixtures tomorrow evening for Andy Robertson and his team mates to pull off an achievement that seemed highly improbable, if not downright impossible, after those opening defeats to Poland, Portugal and Croatia?
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How do they ensure they still have the chance to remain in the A League of the Nations League? And what result against Poland in the Kazimierza Gorski National Stadium in Warsaw will consign them to relegation to the B League?
Some scenarios are simple. Others are not quite so cut and dried. If Scotland lose or draw they will finish bottom of their group and drop down to the B League. End of. Their opponents will either be a point or three points ahead of them in the table. So far so straightforward.
However, if the visitors manage to overcome Robert Lewandowski and Co in their ain midden things will get more complicated.
But a victory in Phoenix City could also potentially see Scotland, who will have risen from the ashes and then some, leapfrog Croatia into second spot, go into the two-legged quarter-finals on the same dates and get a seeding in the World Cup qualifying draw.
They need Portugal, who won Group A1 when they thrashed Poland 5-1 in Porto on Friday night, to beat Croatia in their final outing in Split. If that also happens, it will go down to overall goal difference.
If the two nations who went head-to-head at Hampden on Friday are level on points after full-time tonight the side with the superior goal difference will join Portugal, France, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain as well as Denmark or Serbia in the last eight.
There are three different tie-breaker criteria to separate tied teams – the higher number of points obtained in the games between the two countries in question, the superior goal difference in games between the two countries in question and then the higher number of goals scored between the two teams in question.
But Croatia won 2-1 in Zagreb last month and Scotland won 1-0 in Glasgow on Friday night. So they have the same points, the same goal difference and the same goals scored from their encounters. So overall goal difference will be crucial.
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As things stand, Croatia have a goal difference of 0 and Scotland have a goal difference of -2. But that will obviously change if the former lose and the latter win tonight. So what happens if their overall goal difference is also the same? That will be the case if, say, Portugal win 1-0 and Poland lose 1-0.
It will then go down to the higher number of goals scored in all six matches. At the moment, Croatia have been on target seven times and Scotland have netted on five occasions. If their goals scored are also the same, it will go to the number of away goals scored. Croatia have four so far and Scotland have two.
Here is a potential scenario for you. If Scotland beat Poland 2-1 and Croatia lose 1-0 to Portugal, they will have the same points, the same goal difference, the same goals scored, the same away goals scored and the same number of wins. But our boys will come second as they have triumphed on foreign soil.
Clear as mud? It is all ifs, buts and maybes at the moment. But one thing is for sure. Scotland need to beat Poland. Clarke cut through all the conjecture at his post-match press conference on Friday night.
“We have to win,” he said. “Our first job is to go there and win. If we do that then we'll count up the goals and whatever afterwards. But let's take it a step at a time. It's been a hell of a long time since we got a win, now we've got to get another one on Monday night. So it'd be nice to get back to back.
“But we now have to go away from home and it's a difficult game for us and try and get the win in. From the way we started the group, we were always conscious that we'd probably have to go to Poland to get a result. That's where we are and it's in our own hands.”
