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Daily Mirror
Daily Mirror
Politics
Pippa Crerar

What happens now as Boris Johnson survives no confidence vote - worst could be yet to come

Boris Johnson has won the backing of enough Tory MPs to stay on in Downing Street - for now.

But not even his closest allies believe he is out of danger.

While the Tory leader has insisted he wants to get on with running the country his behaviour has stirred up deep anger among his own backbenchers.

From the Government's handling of Covid to Partygate to post-Brexit plans for Northern Ireland, different factions of MPs have lined up against him.

That may not be enough to topple him - yet - but their jitters are unlikely to subside any time soon, storing up major party discipline issues for months to come.

The Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton by-elections on June 23 are the next big moment of peril.

His behaviour has stirred up deep anger among his own backbenchers (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

An expected defeat by Labour in Wakefield will have until now loyal Red Wall MPs questioning their support for the Prime Minister.

And if the Lib Dems seize the Tiverton constituency, with its 24,000 majority, Tory MPs right across the South of England will be nervous.

Meanwhile the cost of living crisis will continue to bite.

More support from the Government will come this autumn - but may not be enough to ease the pain felt by millions of Brits.

Boris Johnson leaves Parliament after MPs voted on whether they have confidence in him (TOLGA AKMEN/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

Tory MPs are also worried about a Commons inquiry into whether he misled MPs over Partygate and if more stories about his lack of probity come to light.

Before last night's vote, polls showed that a majority of the public and of Tory party members believed that his MPs should boot him out.

They have chosen not to do that - and as Mr Johnson limps towards the next election they may come to regret it.

Could there be a second no confidence vote?

Once a Tory leader wins a no confidence vote by their MPs the current rules state that they cannot be challenged again for a year.

However, Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers, confirmed today that the rules could be changed if the 1922 wants them to.

Members have previously discussed shortening the grace period to hold another vote after six months. So it looks like Tory MPs can trigger a no confidence vote in their leader again if 15% of the parliamentary party write to the chairman.

If a second no confidence vote is triggered - and Mr Johnson decides to fight it - another secret ballot is held of Tory MPs.

Again, 50% of MPs need to vote “no confidence” for the motion to pass. If that happens, the Tory leader must resign and a full leadership contest is held.

But even though he won the vote Mr Johnson will find the breakdown in party discipline difficult to repair. Theresa May, who survived a confidence vote in 2018, ended up standing down anyway a year later.

Theresa May, who survived a confidence vote in 2018, ended up standing down anyway (Peter Macdiarmid/LNP)

Will it be harder to get laws through?

Tory rebels are said to be threatening to obstruct key parliamentary votes even though Mr Johnson has survived the no confidence vote.

They were reported to be threatening that anything other than a convincing win by the Prime Minister would leave them no option but to refuse to vote on Government legislation until Mr Johnson eventually agrees to quit.

But one Tory MP who voted against the PM claimed it was "total rubbish" that they would stop laws getting through. "Our issue is with Boris Johnson, not with the manifesto promises we all stood on at the last election," they added.

Tory former leader Iain Duncan Smith also blasted the plan as "irresponsible", saying that such a move would be "an act of war" by rebel MPs.

Senior party figures claimed that any move to block legislation would result in MPs losing the whip and their constituency associations asked to start de-selection procedures.

It's not yet known if Tory MPs will try to stop flagship laws getting through (REUTERS)

Are we likely to see more 'red meat' policy?

Almost certainly. Boris Johnson will be aware that even though he won last night's vote he isn't out of the woods yet.

When he addressed Tory MPs ahead of the no confidence vote yesterday he made vague promises about tax cuts, which many Tory MPs are calling for at a time when the overall tax burden is at its highest since World War Two.

The PM is expected to make a big speech in the coming days in which he will draw on the legacy of Margaret Thatcher and extend the right-to-buy scheme to millions more people.

He wants those who rent properties from housing association to have the chance to buy them at a discount - even though critics have warned this would dramatically slash the supply of social and affordable housing.

Ministers have already announced that the first deportation flight to Rwanda carrying asylum seekers is scheduled to leave on 14 June. It is likely to face legal challenges.

Expect to hear more on traditional Tory issues like grammar schools and tackling crime.

Expect to hear more on traditional Tory issues like grammar schools and tackling crime (Getty Images)

Could Boris Johnson just throw in the towel?

It's a possibility, though believed to be unlikely.

Last week the PM suggested he had considered quitting over Partygate - but had decided it would be better for the country to stay put in No 10. He told Mumsnet: “I’ve thought about all these questions a lot, as you can imagine, and I just cannot see how actually it’d be responsible right now - given everything that is going on - simply to abandon the project which I embarked on."

Mr Johnson's allies have also repeatedly argued that Britain's leading role supporting Ukraine from Russian aggression means it would be the wrong time for him to go.

But the reality is that he has coveted the role of PM his whole life and is unlikely to give up on his ambition now that he has finally achieved it.

Friends of the PM also say that his wife Carrie enjoys the trappings of her husband's status and would encourage him to cling onto power. One senior Tory rebel says: "We're going to have to prise his fingers off the gates of Downing Street if we ever want to get rid of him".

The PM and his wife Carrie at the Platinum Jubilee pageant yesterday (PA)

Will he suffer a by-election wipeout?

The twin by-elections of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton on June 23 are widely regarded as the PM's next moment of peril.

Many Westminster watchers expected Tory MPs to wait until after them to trigger a no confidence vote as a result.

A JL Partners poll at the weekend found that the Tories are heading for a potentially catastrophic defeat in the Wakefield by-election which could leave Red Wall MPs quaking in their boots. It gave Labour a 20-point lead over the Tories in the Yorkshire constituency, putting them on 48% and the Tories on 28%, down by 19 points.

The Lib Dems are snapping on the Tories' heels in the Tiverton seat vacated by Neil Parish who quit after viewing pornography in the House of Commons chamber.

Mr Johnson's party won a majority of 24,000 in the classic Blue Wall constituency and its loss - so soon after the Lib Dems took Chesham & Amersham - would further dent the PM's standing among traditional Southern Tory MPs.

What role will the Privileges Committee play?

Partygate is not over for the Prime Minister despite the Metropolitan Police concluding their investigation and senior civil servant Sue Gray finally publishing her report.

Mr Johnson is still facing an investigation by the Commons privileges committee into whether he lied to Parliament when he said he did not know about any parties in Downing Street during lockdown.

The committee's inquiry is expected to start as soon as next week but unlikely to finish until the autumn - keeping the story in the headlines for months to come.

The PM has been accused of changing the ministerial code to help “save his skin” ahead of the new Partygate inquiry that could publish more photos and subject him to a public grilling by MPs.

Misleading Parliament could itself be a breach of the ministerial code. Opposition MPs have accused Mr Johnson of rigging the system to “get himself off the hook” ahead of the inquiry. In an exchange with Keir Starmer in January, the PM had admitted it was usual precedent for ministers to resign if they are found to have misled Parliament.

What are the other danger points ahead?

There are numerous moments of peril for the Prime Minister in the months ahead.

If he makes it through to the summer recess his MPs will then spend weeks taking soundings from disgruntled local party members and constituents and may return to Westminster in the autumn with their mood hardened.

That will swiftly be followed by Tory party conference - which could be a make-or-break moment for the PM amid Tory complaints that he has failed to set out the direction of Government.

Some of the PM's aides fear that there will be more damaging stories about his lack of personal integrity ahead. One former Cabinet minister suggested to the Mirror there was a "pipeline of f***-ups ahead".

But the biggest moment of danger for the PM comes from the mounting cost of living crisis - with already struggling families likely to be hit by even bigger bills this autumn despite extra Government support.

International factors including the Ukraine conflict are a key factor in soaring inflation - but not the only one - and desperate households are likely to point the finger of blame at the PM.

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