The federal election has officially been called for May 3 and voters are being warned to support the major parties to avoid ending up with a minority government.
Greens Leader Adam Bandt is particularly confident that we’re headed towards a minority government.
“The election is on. Minority government is coming,” he told reporters in a press conference on Friday.
“And with the major parties offering about as attractive as a dead fish, you can see why.”
But what exactly is a minority government, and would it be such a bad thing?
How do you win an election?
The most straightforward way to win an election is by winning a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives. This is how Labor won the last election, and is how Anthony Albanese is trying to win it again.
At the 2025 election, there will be 150 seats up for grabs in the House of Representatives. This means that to win the metaphorical game of political musical chairs and declare an outright majority, the winning party needs at least 76 seats.
As it currently stands, Labor could only afford to lose two of their current seats in order to maintain the majority, while the Coalition would need 21 additional seats to govern outright.
But if neither of the major parties can wrangle up the 76 seats needed to form a majority government, they can still assume power — provided they can win the support of the crossbench to fill the minimum 76 seats.
According to most polls, we’re looking like we are heading towards a hung parliament, which means the two major parties will need to negotiate with independents and crossbenchers if they want to hold power.
How often do we see minority governments?
Minority governments in Australia are, historically, rare. Since the two-party system took over in the 1940s, Australians have only elected one minority government — Julia Gillard‘s in 2010.
However, the rise of “teal” independents and minor parties in recent years means that more and more voters are straying from the two major parties and, as a result, we could see more minority governments in future.
While they’re uncommon in Australia, minority governments are pretty popular in other places around the world. For example, seven out of the last 10 New Zealand governments have been formed as minorities.
“You wouldn’t from Australia, look across, at us, and think: ‘My God, that mob, they’re a model of constitutional instability and political turmoil’,” Politics professor at Massey University of New Zealand Richard Shaw told SBS.
“You know, stuff just continues to happen.”
Is a minority government bad?
Minority governments are often criticised for not achieving much, but according to the Australia Institute Executive Director Richard Denniss — this couldn’t be further from the truth if you look at the last minority government.
“The Gillard government was, from a legislative point of view, a very, very successful government,” he said on the Follow the Money podcast last year.
“They passed a carbon price, they created the National Disability Insurance Scheme and increased taxes to pay for it, they created a royal commission into abuse within the churches.
“These were big, controversial things that other parliaments hadn’t managed to do.”
What does a minority government look like?
When Australia has a majority government, legislations are largely negotiated in the Senate — but under a minority government, there is an added level of securing support for the bill in the House of Representatives. This is why critics of minority governments tend to complain that nothing gets done under a minority government, or that they are unpredictable.
In order to pass legislation as a minority government, the major party needs to be effective at negotiating with the crossbench.
“In order for Julia Gillard’s government to pass a bill through the lower house, she needed to have a good hard chat with Tony Windsor and Adam Bandt and Rob Oakeshott,” Denniss said of the 2010 Gillard government.
“By doing the negotiation politely and privately, from the beginning and in good faith, they actually secured the passage of the bill.
“And guess what? Every bill that Adam Bandt voted for in the lower house, the Greens voted for when it got to the upper house.”
It is worth noting that while the Gillard Labor government was productive in passing legislation, it did not manage to win the support of voters at the following election.
The major parties have insisted that a minority government is not something they are interested in, presumably because they have to work harder to pass legislation and, you know, negotiate with the crossbench.
With a rise in independents winning historically “safe” seats from both sides of the political spectrum, it is looking increasingly more likely that minority governments will become more common — and that the major parties will have to forge productive relationships with the crossbench if they want to effectively lead.
What have politicians had to say about minority governments this election?
When asked whether the Greens would seek ministerial positions in a Labor minority government, the answer was a resounding “no”.
“The answer is no and no. Ministerial position is not our priority,” he told reporters.
“What the Greens want at this election is to keep [Liberal leader] Peter Dutton out and get Labor to act. This is a real chance … to get some real outcomes for people. Like enough of the tinkering around the edges.”
While other politicians are fearmongering over the thought of minority governments, Bandt reminded reporters that “last time there was a minority parliament, we got dental into Medicare for kids.”
Bandt also ruled out any deal with the Coalition, which is a good sign for Labor if they can’t secure the majority.
Meanwhile, Dutton said a minority Labor-Greens would be “chaotic”.
“An Albanese-Bandt Labor-Greens government … would be a disaster for the economy and families and small business. We can provide certainty and stability to get our country back on track, and that’s what we intend to do,” Dutton said.
Albanese has previously ruled out negotiating with crossbenchers if he formed a minority government, and now dismisses the idea saying “I intend to lead a majority government.”
The post What Happens If Both Major Parties Don’t Win Enough Seats To Form Government? appeared first on PEDESTRIAN.TV .
