Intense fighting in Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces reportedly blew up a bridge near the eastern city of Bakhmut, in a sign they may have been planning to retreat from the area, which would give Russia a significant, symbolic boost ahead of the first anniversary of the war, Isobel Koshiw reported.
Russia later fired Grad rockets and barrel artillery at a residential district in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut on Thursday, killing three men and two women and wounding nine more, Ukraine’s prosecutor general said. Blurred images of the victims were shared on Telegram by the office of the prosecutor, who said the attack was being investigated as a war crime. “Criminal proceedings have been initiated.”
While Russia may have made gains in Bakhmut, its army is estimated to have lost nearly 40% of its prewar fleet of tanks after nine months of fighting in Ukraine, according to a count by the specialist thinktank the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Dan Sabbagh reported.
That rises to as much as 50% for some of the key tanks used in combat, forcing Russia to reach into its still sizeable cold war-era stocks. Ukraine’s tank numbers are estimated to have increased because of the number it has captured and supplies of Soviet-era tanks from its western allies.
And adding to the list of potential war crimes committed by Russia, a US state department-funded report said thousands of children from Ukraine have also attended Russian “re-education” camps in the past year, with several hundred held there for weeks or months beyond their scheduled return date.
Iran smuggling new types of drones into Russia
Iran has used boats and a state-owned airline to smuggle new types of advanced long-range armed drones to Russia for use in its war on Ukraine, sources inside the Middle Eastern country revealed in an exclusive by Martin Chulov, Dan Sabbagh and Nechirvan Mando.
At least 18 of the drones were delivered to Russia’s navy after its officers and technicians made a special visit to Tehran in November, where they were shown a full range of Iran’s technologies.
On that occasion, the 10-man Russian delegation selected six Mohajer-6 drones, which have a range of around 200km and carry two missiles under each wing, along with 12 Shahed 191 and 129 drones, which also have an air-to-ground strike capability.
Unlike the better-known Shahed 131 and 136 drones, which have been heavily used by Russia in kamikaze raids against Ukrainian targets, the higher-flying drones are designed to deliver bombs and return to base intact.
The disclosures demonstrate the increasing closeness between Iran and Russia, which share a hostility towards the US, since Moscow launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine a year ago.
Iran is also emerging as a global leader in the production of cheap and lethal drones, according to US officials, who say Tehran is using the war in Ukraine as a shop window for its technologies.
The defenders of Vuhledar
Crunching through the snow, a few miles from the Russian frontline, there are few visible signs of the activity going on below. At ground level, where the temperature is -6C, the background noise of artillery fire is constant: the pops of outgoing shells and the crumps of incoming ones, as the Russians attack the nearby town of Vuhledar, in Donetsk oblast, a fight that has already been going on for three weeks.
The military escort turns off into an ordinary dacha, and heads not for the house, but towards a nearby cellar, pushing past a dirty hanging drape. It reveals a flight of steps leading to a heavy metal door and beyond that a hi-tech command post. Inside a stove-warmed room, half a dozen soldiers from Ukraine’s 68th Jaeger infantry brigade monitor the frontline.
Here, the soldiers are armed with laptops, Dan Sabbagh reports. One constantly eyes camera footage, which can come from drones, another the Russians’ radio communications – both gathering intelligence. The frozen fields on the central screen appear quiet at that moment, but the fighting has been intense nearby, around a small coal mining town that the Ukrainians are desperate to hold.
Ukraine family stuck after UK host dies suddenly
Nadiia Luba was sheltering in a basement in central Ukraine earlier this month when she learned that her family’s chances of escaping to Britain had been dashed.
After nearly eight months of waiting for visas for her and her two sons, she got a text to say that the British host who had been so ready to welcome them had died suddenly. “I couldn’t stop crying,” she said. “My brain didn’t want to accept it.”
Luba is one of 9,700 Ukrainians still waiting on a visa decision to join a host in the UK under the Homes for Ukraine scheme. Volunteers helping to match families say they have seen an increase in waits of six months or more, where no news is communicated by the Home Office.
Luba, 43, who teaches English to schoolchildren in her village just outside Vinnytsia, is despairing about her future. As the anniversary of the start of the war approaches, she is worried about another increase in Russian attacks coming before she can get her sons Dima, 10 and Vlad, 14, to safety. “All our friends are leaving Ukraine now because they are afraid. In January it was very dangerous because rockets were exploding and we haven’t got a proper place to hide, only a home basement. It’s not safe.”
Her host, Helen Creegan, 53, a retired prison officer from Pudsey, had become a good friend and offered a way out of Ukraine – but that ended abruptly when Creegan was found dead at home on the afternoon of 2 February. “It’s too cruel,” Luba said. “ She was a real friend to me those eight months.” Emily Dugan had this story.
Russia’s plans in east could take two years, says Wagner boss
The boss of the Russian mercenary Wagner group said it could take Russia two years to seize the entire east of Ukraine in a rare interview that suggests at least some key figures in Moscow are gearing up for a protracted conflict, Luke Harding and Dan Sabbagh reported.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has emerged from the shadows to become a high-profile figure since the start of the war, suggested Russia’s focus was now on capturing the rest of the Donbas region it has not occupied since the start of the war nearly a year ago.
Doing so would take “about one-and-half to two more years of work”, the ally of president Vladimir Putin said. If the goal was to occupy all of Ukraine east of the Dnipro River, this would “take about three years”, he said.
Ukrainian officials expect an imminent Russian onslaught, possibly before the first anniversary of the start of the war on 24 February, although a renewed advance on the capital, Kyiv, is not thought likely, after an advance failed badly last year.
One scenario, in line with Prigozhin’s comments, would see Russian troops trying to encircle Ukraine’s eastern army from the north and south, with tank columns crossing the international border in the direction of Sumy and Poltava, and advancing simultaneously from the occupied southern Zaporizhzhia region.
Prigozhin also admitted that his mercenary group is facing difficulties in Ukraine and will soon decrease in size, Pjotr Sauer reported, amid growing evidence that his political influence in the Kremlin is waning.
Moldovan MPs approve a new, pro-western government
Moldova’s parliament approved the formation of a pro-western government led by the new prime minister, Dorin Recean, amid continuing economic turmoil and allegations of Russian meddling, Paula Erizanu reported.
Recean, 48, was nominated by President Maia Sandu to replace Natalia Gavrilita, whose government resigned last week amid a series of crises in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Sandu repeatedly accused Russia of trying to destabilise Moldova and on Monday accused Moscow of plotting to topple the country’s leadership, stop it joining the EU and use it in the war against Ukraine.
Her comments came after Moldova’s intelligence service reported last week that it had identified “subversive activities”, after Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said Kyiv had intercepted a “plan for the destruction of Moldova” by Russian intelligence.
