NIGEL Farage and Elon Musk’s relationship has begun to splinter following a public disagreement over the imprisonment of far-right thug Tommy Robinson.
Previously friends through their mutual connection Donald Trump, the rift threatens the prospect of a major donation to Reform UK by the tech billionaire and influential owner of Twitter/X.
But while some independence supporters might think there are strategic gains for the Yes side with the advent of the Reform era of UK politics, a polling expert told The National the picture is more complicated.
A poll for the Sunday National published after Christmas showed that independence support rose from 49.5% to 55.3% when voters were asked to choose between independence or staying in the Union with Farage as PM while No fell from 45.2% to 36.8%.
Mark Diffley (above), director of the consultancy and research firm Diffley Partnership, said that the research by Find Out Now was reminiscent of how voters became more sympathetic to independence when they were faced with the prospect of a no-deal Brexit after the referendum.
He said: “These things did tend to push people more into the independence camp, because for a lot of people, even natural Unionist supporters, they were unacceptable or at least they make people think a bit more closely or question whether they would still support staying in the UK.”
But Diffley noted that the Sunday National poll also showed a greater number of people becoming undecided on the constitutional question, with the “don’t knows” rising from 5.3% to 8.0% with the prospect of a Farage premiership.
He said: “Interestingly, what that does [Farage as PM] is push more people into being slightly undecided about it rather than pushing Yes vote up by a significant amount.”
And despite Musk’s public spat with Farage, who he said should be replaced as Reform UK leader, Diffley noted that the latest polling – conducted before the rift – still showed the party on an “upwards trajectory”.
Their greatest hopes lie in securing a donation worth as much as $100 million from Musk, though Farage (above) has insisted the party can do without what would be a record-breaking gift.
Diffley suggested that the return of a sizable Reform bloc to Holyrood after the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections could also boost the case for Yes – but warned that Scots were in “unknown territory” with the party.
But the mathematics might benefit the SNP, who could stand to gain from the “further fracturing” of the Unionist vote.
Diffley added: “In that sense it kind of strengthens the SNP, so again it might have those strengthening effects for independence as well by virtue of that Unionist bloc or Unionist part of the electorate being further split.”
Stephen Gethins (below), the SNP MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, said that the prospect of a Farage premiership meant the No camp had to come clean about the risks of remaining in the Union.
He told The National: “Just as voters would expect those of us who support independence to set out what an independent future might look like, so too do supporters of the Union.
“The UK is poor and more isolated because of the populist and hard right policies of the Tories and their harmful Brexit now being implemented by Labour.
The future of the Union looks like one that is being set by Nigel Farage and Reform. That is not the kind of Scotland that will make us better off or the kind of values that those of us who believe in fairness and playing a pro-active role as an outlooking member of the international community.”
Gethins said that independence would put Scotland on track for a “better future” within the “European and international mainstream”.
