FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — After the months of fire and fury from Democrats declaring outrage over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the number of voters who participated in their party’s summer primary to pick a DeSantis challenger was ... about the same as it was four years ago.
In the state’s two biggest counties, the number of Democratic votes cast in the gubernatorial primary was down, by 2.1% in Broward — and 11% in Miami-Dade County.
Is that an ominous sign for Democrats?
And what are the other implications for the November general election, and beyond, from the Aug. 23 primary voting?
Experts said it’s next to impossible to suss out definitive conclusions from the turnout, which Florida Atlantic University political scientist Kevin Wagner said was “pretty high for a midterm primary, though not absurdly so.”
Primary turnout isn’t necessarily an indication of what voters will do in November. “Sometimes it’s not that predictive, because people aren’t that engaged at this part of the cycle,” Wagner said. “It’s a bit like reading tea leaves.”
Still, he said, Democrats would have liked an increase. “If they were being honest, a Democrat would hope they’d be a bit better,” Wagner said.
That’s especially true in South Florida, the state’s Democratic stronghold. Without a good November performance in Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties, Democratic nominee Charlie Crist has no way to overcome the Republican advantage in the rest of the state.
In context, Wagner said, the 2022 numbers are “fairly solid” for Democrats. Four years ago, the Democratic candidates had a much more closely contested primary for governor, as opposed to 2022 when Crist was widely seen as defeating Nikki Fried; the 2018 candidates collectively spent more on advertising than this year’s candidates, which helped juice voter interest; and in 2018 candidate Andrew Gillum brought out many many young, progressive and Black voters.
Given the statewide numbers for both parties, you can’t really make a lot of hay as to what that means for November. If one showed a dramatic increase over the other, then you’d say (it’s a sign of) enthusiasm,” said Richard DeNapoli, the state Republican committeeman for Broward.
“What does it portend for the fall?” he said. “It’s hard to tell when you have both sides” hovering around 30%.
DeNapoli, who is also a former Broward Republican Party chairman, added that “I definitely believe there is a little more enthusiasm on the right.”
Democrats, though, said there is a special factor that will generate enthusiasm for their side. “Ron DeSantis motivates Democrats,” said Democratic strategist Eric Johnson.
Numbers dip
The total number of votes in the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial primary was about the same, statewide, as the number of votes in the 2018 primary. The total ticked down — even as the number of registered Democrats in Florida increased.
Here are the numbers:
—Statewide, Democratic gubernatorial primary 2022: 1,514,988 votes, 30.5% of registered Democrats.
—Statewide, Democratic gubernatorial primary 2018: 1,519,492 votes, 31.4% of registered Democrats.
—Broward, Democratic gubernatorial primary 2022: 168,165 votes, 28.2% of registered Democrats.
—Broward, Democratic gubernatorial primary 2018: 171,841 votes, 29.8% of registered Democrats.
—Miami-Dade County, Democratic gubernatorial primary 2022: 131,835 votes, 22.8% of registered Democrats.
—Miami-Dade County, Democratic gubernatorial primary 2018: 148,479 votes, 25.3% of registered Democrats.
—Palm Beach County, Democratic gubernatorial primary 2022: 129,404 votes, 32.4% of registered Democrats.
—Palm Beach County, Democratic gubernatorial primary 2018: 128,608 votes, 33.2% of registered Democrats.
Statewide, the tally of Democratic votes cast in the 2022 primary for governor was 4,504 fewer than in 2018.
There were much bigger declines in South Florida. There were 3,676 fewer Democratic votes cast in Broward and 16,644 fewer in Miami-Dade, with a slight uptick of 796 votes in Palm Beach County.
The same comparison isn’t possible for Republicans. In 2018, Republicans had a highly contentious primary for governor between DeSantis and Adam Putnam. This year, there was no Republican primary for governor, though some areas of the state had hot local or regional Republican primaries.
The only statewide Republican primary this year was for the nomination for agriculture commissioner, and 1.4 million people voted. In 2018, 1.5 million people voted in the Republican primary for agriculture commissioner.
South Florida blowouts
Three of the biggest contests in Broward and Palm Beach counties resulted in blowout victories.
None of the outcomes was a surprise, but the wins were bigger than political insiders expected. Each of the three — Jared Moskowitz, Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick and Lauren Book — were attacked by their opponents, but that didn’t resonate with voters.
Each had the support of virtually all the elected Democrats who got involved in the primaries, along with key organizations such as labor unions that lean Democratic. And each was much better funded than their opponents, and could afford much more TV advertising, mailings, and campaign help than their opponents.
“Many of the races we thought would be competitive turned out not to be,” Wagner said.
On to Washington
All the major independent sites that analyze congressional races see Cherfilus-McCormick and Moskowitz as winners in November elections for House of Representatives.
Their districts, which both take in parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties, are rated “solid” Democratic by Inside Elections and the Cook Political Report and “safe” Democratic by Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast has Cherfilus-McCormick 20th Congressional District as solidly Democratic and the 23rd District, where Moskowitz is running, as likely Democratic. FiveThirtyEight forecasts Moskowitz as “clearly favored” to win with 54.2% of the vote in November.
Joe Budd is the Republican nominee in the 23rd District. The seat is open, after Democratic U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch decided not to run for reelection. (In 2010, Budd was the unsuccessful Republican candidate against Deutch.)
Moskowitz received 61.1% of the vote in the Democratic primary. Fort Lauderdale Commissioner Ben Sorensen was a distant second in the six-candidate field, receiving 20.5%.
Moskowitz was as close to an incumbent as a non-incumbent could be in the congressional race. He’s a former elected state representative and Parkland city commissioner and appointed Broward County commissioner and state emergency management director.
Ken Evans, the Broward state Democratic committeeman, said Moskowitz was well-known in the Jewish community, which has a large population in the district, and his late father, Mike Moskowitz, was a longtime leader in the Democratic Party. (Mike Moskowitz was Evans’ immediate predecessor as state Democratic committeeman.)
Cherfilus-McCormick received 65.6% of the primary vote in her rematch with Dale Holness, who came in a distant second, with 28.6%.
It was a far different result than last year, when Cherfilus-McCormick defeated Holness by just five votes in a special primary election following the death of longtime U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings. She has been in Congress since winning a special general election.
The results set up Cherfilus-McCormick for a long career in Congress, if she wants, in the district that’s so Democratic that Republicans have virtually no chance of winning. (Hastings served 28 years.)
Terrie Rizzo said she quickly established herself as the congresswoman. “Sheila had the advantage of incumbency.” Evans said she campaigned hard for reelection. “I think she engaged the people better,” he said.
Book-Sharief
State Sen. Lauren Book doesn’t have to face the voters in November.
Republicans didn’t field a candidate in Broward’s 35th State Senate district, which is mostly south of Interstate 595 and west of Florida’s Turnpike. So the blistering hot primary between Book and Barbara Sharief was open to all voters.
Winning 60.4% of the vote, Book goes back to Tallahassee. “It was a trouncing,” said Broward County Commissioner Steve Geller, a former Senate Democratic leader and Book supporter. It’s the second consecutive loss for Sharief, a former Broward County commissioner who was an unsuccessful candidate last year to succeed Hastings.
Book is the current Senate Democratic leader, and had the support of Democratic elected leaders from across the state, many of whom openly expressed anger at Sharief for running.
By keeping Book tied up and fighting in Broward County, she wasn’t able to perform the most important job of a party leader in the Legislature: traveling the state to raise money and help other candidates with their campaigns.
Sharief consistently rejected that narrative, responding that she didn’t need anyone’s permission to run for office, and that Book didn’t own the seat.
Book can’t run again in 2024 because of term limits. But some Democrats, still angry at Sharief’s candidacy, are thinking about other potential successors.
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