The margin for error is tiny when building a championship contender in the NBA. Losing one player can be enough to shut your window. The Denver Nuggets, over the last couple of seasons and since hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy in 2023, have lost a few key rotation pieces making their margin for error tiny.
That’s put immense pressure on Nikola Jokic to carry an even more absurd burden this season, and the three-time MVP is somehow putting together his best year yet.
The lesson here? When you have the best player in the world, your margin for error is a little wider than usual.
Jokic’s brilliance to start this season has provided the Nuggets time to recalibrate. Head coach Michael Malone has been tweaking and experimenting with different lineups, which have allowed young guys like Christian Braun, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther to utilize their strengths. The Jokic-Russell Westbrook connection has blossomed, and the former MVP point guard has thrived as a full-time starter. Aaron Gordon has returned from injury and accepted a bench role, for which Malone commended him.
And now, Jamal Murray has arrived at the party.
The Nuggets are 12-3 in their last 15 games. They’ve had a top-10 offense and defense and the second-best net rating in the league during that stretch. They’re now just 1.5 games back of second in the Western Conference, and Murray has been a significant catalyst of this rise.
After a slow start, Murray is averaging 20.6 points, 5.5 assists and 3.9 rebounds on 48-40-92 shooting splits over his past 15 games — comparable numbers to the best seasons of his career.
Burst and Finishing
Murray battled through injuries to play in the 2024 postseason but never quite looked like himself. He shot 43 percent on twos, which was the worst mark of his career. That carried over with Team Canada to the Olympics, where he couldn’t create any separation on his shots and lacked burst getting to the basket. It was more of the same through the Nuggets’ first 14 games, when he shot 47 percent on twos and a woeful 59 percent in the restricted area.
Since Dec. 1, Murray’s at-rim finishing has jumped. He’s driving downhill more and scoring on 69 percent of his looks around the hoop. He’s looked more comfortable getting to the basket in pick-and-rolls and, quite simply, has his legs under him again.
The Nuggets playing faster — thanks to the addition of Westbrook — has also helped. The Nuggets are fifth in pace after ranking 26th last season. The Murray-Westbrook combo has been particularly elite in transition. Denver is nine points per 100 possessions better in transition when both are on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. The Nuggets’ transition frequency skyrockets to 23 percent with Murray and Westbrook out there. Murray is scoring 1.27 points per 100 possessions in transition this season, which is the highest clip of his career.
This is the kind of move you make when your legs feel great. A lot of positives from Jamal Murray as of late. pic.twitter.com/6YG4apXcg6
— Jason Timpf (@_JasonLT) December 20, 2024
Playing faster with Westbrook has allowed Murray to regain his legs in the half-court. Now, he’s finally back to putting pressure on the rim.
Moving Off The Ball
Westbrook’s presence has prompted Murray to explore his off-ball game more. His usage rate is down to 23.5 percent, the lowest since his second year in the league. While he’s still second on the team in touches, Westbrook only has 20 fewer total touches overall, signifying how much they share ball-handling responsibilities outside of Jokic.
Jamal Murray playing off-ball next to Russell Westbrook… I like it pic.twitter.com/M9slmxuM8z
— Matt Brooks (@MattBrooksNBA) December 17, 2024
Last year, Murray had 44 total possessions that qualified as ‘off-screen’ buckets, which weaponizes his movement shooting out of the Nuggets’ patent flex actions. He already has 40 off-screen possessions this season, and his points per possession on those opportunities has jumped from 0.82 to 1.04. Additionally, he’s recorded 37 possessions this season as a cutter and after logging 47 all last season, according to data provided to Sportscasting.
More Left To Explore
Murray’s game has been forced to evolve with the presence of Westbrook, and his off-ball capabilities have been a welcomed presence for the Nuggets offensively. Ranking dead last in 3-point rate and attempts, they still struggle to take a healthy volume of threes. But they’re good at making them, knocking down 39 percent of their threes, third-best in the Association.
Murray is a big part of that. He’s hitting 40 percent of his threes over the last 15 games. He’s taking fewer pull-ups and focusing on more off-the-catch opportunities, and it’s helped serve as a release valve for the Nuggets offense.
There’s still more left to explore, though. For his standards, Murray isn’t having a good pick-and-roll season. He’s putting up a measly 0.85 points per 100 possessions out of those actions, the worst mark since his rookie year.
But there’s no question he’s turned the corner, looking increasingly like the Murray who captivated the NBA during the Nuggets’ 2023 title run. He can go off on any night, highlighted by an impressive 45-point outing against the Dallas Mavericks earlier this month.
That’s the player the Nuggets will need if they want to make another championship run. Murray understands that. When asked about failing to meet expectations after signing a $209 million contract extension this summer, he was candid about his up-and-down play.
“I guarantee I’m talking worse to myself than anybody will,” he told the Denver Post. “I expect a lot better of myself. I think I deserve it, to a certain extent. So, I’m not gonna complain about it. And that’s what people do. They’re gonna talk about what they see. And if they don’t see me performing the way they want me to perform as a fan, they’re gonna let me hear it, or tweet about it.
Murray has the right approach as he enters an important stage of his career. Many expected him to take an All-Star leap following the Nuggets title run, but injuries have held him back.
There’s no question Denver’s had a rollercoaster season. But Jokic is playing the best basketball of his career, and his supporting cast, led by Westbrook, is fitting in seamlessly.
Murray is the final piece of the puzzle. Now, as he turns the corner and evolves his game, the Nuggets need him more than ever to be at his best. If they want to return to the Finals this season, he must be the Robin to Jokic’s Batman, just as he was in 2023.
That’s pressure.
But it comes with the territory. And Murray understands that.
