So now we know. Tony Blair has joined the long line of Labour worthies who believe their party is heading for defeat next week.
In his first appearance on the campaign trail since the election was called, the former prime minister said that Labour had "every chance of succeeding" next Thursday.
Every chance of succeeding? That is hardly the language of blood, sweat and tears. Can you imagine Winston Churchill saying we'll fight them on the beaches and then we'll have every chance of achieving a success over Nazi Germany?
Blair's carefully chosen words show that, even when he was holed up in the Middle East while his private jet was grounded by the volcanic ash, he has clocked what is happening in Britain: it will take a miracle for Labour to win. It is worth examining the exchange at a polyclinic in Harrow this morning to understand Blair's thinking.
With Labour trailing third in most polls, Blair was asked whether his party was heading for a catastrophic defeat. This is what Emily Ashton, who covered the pooled visit for the Press Association, recorded Blair as saying:
I don't believe that will happen. I think Labour has got every chance of succeeding. But we will succeed best – and I don't think this is much disputed by people – if the focus is on policy.
So Blair does not think that his successor is a Michael Foot, the former Labour leader who fought the 1983 campaign on a manifesto famously described by Gerald Kaufman as the "longest suicide note in history". Foot, who saw his party's vote sink to 27.6%, at least managed to come second. Blair and Brown should know about 1983. It was the year they were elected to parliament.
So what does Blair think? He will be disappointed that Labour is faring so badly and has failed to take apart the Tories as he did so effectively in his last political speech in Britain on 30 March. This is what he said in his final conference speech as Labour leader in 2006:
If we can't take this lot apart in the next few years we shouldn't be in the business of politics at all.
Blair will feel some sympathy for Brown who is attempting to defy what David Miliband has described as "political gravity" by asking for a fourth successive term after 13 years in power. Blair may even feel a modest pang of guilt that Brown is facing the same fate as Jim Callaghan: waiting ages for a senior, but younger, partner to stand aside before facing humiliation at the polls after a mere three years in power.
Deep in his bones, however, Blair will feel vindicated. Brown's less than dazzling performance in the campaign – and his excruciating description of a lifelong Labour voter as a "bigoted woman" – will lead Blair to think he was right all along: that his successor was simply never cut out to be prime minister.
Blair will be thinking that he now needs to work out his relationship with Cameron. It was interesting that he pulled his punches with the Tories today, unlike in his last appearance in March.
Cameron, who regarded Blair as unbeatable, showed he will be happy to work with him on the Middle East when he made light of the former prime minster's appearance:
It's great to have him back in the country. He's one of the few people who could actually afford another Labour government.
Then Cameron laughed about the Blair permatan. He said Blair's appearances were "very good for the sales of Tango".
10pm update: The former prime minister's office said that Blair did talk about Labour winning when he spoke to party activists about how the election can be won.
