The road to the Tour de France starts this weekend for Primož Roglič (Bora-Hansgrohe) and Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) as they take on the first races of their respective seasons – Roglič at Paris-Nice on Sunday and his Slovenian compatriot at Strade Bianche the day before.
Their two other obvious Tour de France rivals – Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quick Step) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) have already started their campaigns, and in the most promising way at that. Evenepoel won overall at the Volta ao Algarve, collecting a stage along the way, while Roglič's former team-mate Vingegaard took an even more emphatic victory at O Gran Camiño in Spain, with a clean sweep of the overall, mountains and points classifications, plus three stage wins.
One swallow does not a summer make, and how much can be read into these performances in terms of the Tour de France is limited. But starting out with a win is a confidence boost that shouldn't be underrated. On the other hand, a terrible ride can put a real dent in morale.
So what will Roglic and Pogačar be hoping to take from their upcoming events?
Tadej Pogačar
As a one-day race, Strade Bianche is less easy to control than the Grand Tours that he is most focused on. But Tadej Pogačar has revealed his hand from the outset, saying on his UAE Team Emirates website: "We are racing for the win."
"Strade which is a race I love and have great memories from," said the 25-year-old, who won the event from a solo breakaway in 2022.
This season takes on a significantly different shape for Pogačar, who is targeting not just the Tour de France but the Giro d'Italia too – the only one of the 'big four' attempting the feat.
If he does achieve it he will be the first rider since Marco Pantani in 1998 to do so.
"It’s going to be a long season, including two Grand Tours, so new territory for me in that regard," he said, adding: "My preparation has been really good and we’ll be racing for the win. You never know exactly how you’ll be in the first races and there will be big rivals but I think with our team we can be ready for anything.”
The relative unpredictability of a race like Strade, coupled with motivated and talented rivals like Tom Pidcock, who is also targeting the Italian race, means Pogačar could easily end up walking away with nothing to show for his efforts. But his apparent happy-go-lucky outlook means he'd be unlikely to allow such an eventuality to set him back.
Strade Bianche begins 10:15 GMT on Saturday (March 2).
Primož Roglič
Primož Roglič has a different kettle of fish to deal with at Paris-Nice. A 'D' on his post-race report paper here has the potential to cut that much deeper – the reason being this is an eight-day stage race. One off-day can be readily excused, but a poor showing over eight days is far harder to brush off. Ramping up the pressure even further is the fact that he will go hard up against Evenepoel in France. One of the two will emerge on top, leaving the other with questions about their form and the season ahead – even if they can be rationalised away.
Evenepoel and Vingegaard have probably done the sensible thing – even if it was by happy accident – by opening their seasons at races where none of their big Grand Tour rivals were present. It has worked out well for them.
Roglič, meanwhile, insists he is fully focused on the Tour de France and nothing else. “Until now, I have almost always gone into a race to win, but that might change this year. If I have to go to a race to train this year, I will,” Roglič told Rouleur recently. “The focus is on the Tour.”
Paris-Nice begins at 12:15 GMT on Sunday (March 3).
