Much is made about USDA's acreage guesses each February, basically because it's the end of winter and there isn't anything meaningful left to talk about.
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The release of the latest acreage guesses are the second round, with the third seen in the end of March Prospective Pantings report.
Commodity Bulletin: From crude oil to coffee, this FREE newsletter is for industry pros and rookies alike This time around, USDA actually moved to get in line with what markets have been showing us the past 6 months. Go figure.
You might’ve heard Thursday kicks off the 2025 edition of USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum. I could propose a drinking game tied to the hullabaloo over these numbers, but I care about your livers and overall health. The reality is this will be the second first look at USDA’s 2025 crop guesses, the first being the baseline projections initially release last November. The spotlight this morning will be on US corn acres, with the most noise made by those who didn’t know to track the November soybean/December corn futures spread the past six months. Recall I’ve been updating you weekly, with Dec25 corn firmly positioning itself to buy acres away from Nov25 soybeans since September 1, 2024. (The argument could also be made Nov25 soybeans was doing all it could to NOT buy acres, in essence throwing the fight to Dec25 corn.)
One of the first orders of business at the 2025 USDA Ag Outlook Forum was the release of the second round of US planted acres guesses early Thursday morning.
What did this Second First look at 2025 acres show us?
- US 2025 corn planted acres were estimated at 94.0 million
- up 2.0 million acres from USDA's baseline projection this past November
- and up 3.4 million acres (ma) from USDA’s January “final” number for 2024 of 90.6 ma
- US 2025 soybean planted acres were estimated at 84.0 million
- down 1.0 ma from USDA's baseline projection this past November
- and down 3.1 ma from last year’s “final” guess of 87.1 ma
- US 2025 all wheat planted areas were projected to be 47.0 million
- up 1.0 ma from USDA's baseline projection this past November
- and up from last 2024’s reported 46.1 ma
What do I think?
- USDA's second attempt at guessing 2025 US acres fits closer to what the markets have been showing us
- Dec25 corn has worked the past 6 months to buy acres away from Nov25 soybeans
- Futures spreads in winter wheat markets, particularly HRW, have been bearish for the last number of weeks (months?)
What do the markets think of these numbers?
- Dec25 corn (ZCZ25) was up 0.25 cent when I wrote Thursday's Morning Commentary and is now down 1.5 cents
- The Nov25 soybean contract (ZSX25) is up 2.75 cents
- Both July HRW and SRW contracts are down 5.0 cents (KEN25) (ZWN25)
The next first look will be USDA's Prospective Plantings report on March 31. Stay tuned.
