In Daniel Jeremiah’s most recent mock draft, he had the New York Jets trading up from No. 10 to No. 5 to select Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. So this got me thinking, if this is a move that could be on Joe Douglas’ radar, what might it take to make that jump up the draft board?
Admittedly, there is guesswork involved here because a big variable in all of this is how teams view the value of future draft capital. We know that a first-rounder in 2024 has more value than a first-round pick in 2025, but what’s the difference?
What we can surmise right now is that the Jets most likely won’t be parting with any draft capital from 2024 — other than the 10th overall pick — because they simply don’t have all that much to work with.
In total, the Jets have eight selections this year, but only two are within the top 100. Overall, they rank 26th leaguewide in draft capital value.
For example, using the 2024 draft value chart as our guide, the difference in value between the No. 10 pick and the No. 5 selection is 400 points. The Jets’ third-round selection at 72nd overall is worth 230 points. Both fourth-round picks combine for 112.5 points. So even in combining those three picks, the Jets still fall about 60 points shy of making up that 400-point difference, according to the draft value chart.
As I said, trading additional 2024 draft capital isn’t likely in the cards, which means that the Jets probably have to ship off some of their 2025 draft capital to get this deal done, and this is where the guesswork gets a bit dicey.
Currently the Jets have one pick in each of the first five rounds of the 2025 draft and two in the sixth round. Along with the decreased value that a future pick has compared to current ones, we don’t know where the Jets will be selecting either.
In terms of draft pick value, there’s a big difference between No. 15 and No. 31, for example. Of course, the hope is that the Jets will be at the back end of each round.
In today’s value, the 50th overall pick is worth 400 points, making up the difference between No. 10 and No. 5. But again, if the Jets are picking in the back end of each round, at a minimum, moving up this year will cost them a second-round pick in 2025 and then some, potentially even their third-rounder as well.
However, when factoring in the decrease in future draft pick value, along with the Jets’ expectation be a playoff team in 2024, I do think it’s possible that they could have to part with their 2025 first-round pick in order to make that jump up the draft board this year. For some context, before factoring in the decreased value of future picks, the 32nd overall pick this year is worth 590 points.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been dubbed by many as a prime trade-down candidate in this year’s draft, which makes the No. 5 slot a potential landing spot for the Jets if they do want to move up.
In regard to who the Jets would be willing to move up for, Marvin Harrison Jr. is the most likely player — and potentially the only one. In what is a loaded receiver class, he is considered the best of the best and would form an elite duo with Garrett Wilson with his ability to win in all parts of the field and in a variety of ways.
Perhaps if the Jets are extremely high on offensive tackle Joe Alt and believe he is head and shoulders above the other tackle prospects, they explore that move. Or maybe if Harrison is off the board at No. 5 but Douglas and Co. think extremely highly of either Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers, I suppose those could be two other candidates — although any one of those three moves could be perceived as too bold on the Jets’ part.
Overall, the Jets trading up doesn’t seem to be a likely scenario. But with that said, this is a team in win-now mode and with Douglas building out the starting offensive line in free agency, he did gain more flexibility in how he approaches the early portion of the draft.
