When we hear about immigration from politicians and media across Europe, the story is almost always negative. In some countries, this is old news. The UK tabloid press has printed thousands of anti-migrant articles over the last two decades. Anti-immigrant rhetoric has been a feature of Danish politics since the early 1990s. In contrast, Viktor Orban’s extreme, racist and Islamophobic rhetoric – adopted largely from 2015 – marks Hungary out as a relative newcomer.
Across Europe, refugees and other migrants are routinely represented as a problem or “crisis”. It would be natural to assume, then, that the public feels the same way – that attitudes to immigration are negative, possibly worsening. Politicians routinely imply this when they say they must introduce strict immigration rules in response to public concerns.
Opinion polls regularly show that the European public disapprove of the government’s handling of immigration and may see levels as too high. But long-term European Social Survey (ESS) data – the latest of which came out at the end of 2024 – shows positive trends.
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At ODI Europe, my colleagues and I have been studying public attitudes and political narratives around migration across Europe for five years. Our analysis has found that, compared to 20 years ago, more Europeans (in many, but not all countries) feel immigration makes their country a better place to live.
Positive attitudes have particularly increased in Ireland, the UK, Norway, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and Switzerland. Similar positive trends emerge when the public is asked about the economic and cultural impacts of immigration.
The UK is among the countries with the least anti-immigration views in Europe. While in 2002-03 only 27% of the British public felt immigration had a positive impact on the economy, this has jumped to 66% in 2023-24. However, it is a drop from the 69% who felt immigration had a positive economic impact in the previous survey round (2020-22).
The UK also topped the table in the last World Values Survey as a country that is highly accepting of immigration and particularly welcoming of the cultural diversity it brings.
Read more: The UK now ranks as one of the most socially liberal countries in Europe – new research
The Migration Observatory finds that a majority of the British public favours making immigration easier for workers coming into the NHS, care work and other jobs where there are shortages.
Researchers from the think tank British Future have found that most of the public would prefer current levels of international student migration to stay the same or increase. International students currently make up 40% of net migration to the country.
Why the differences?
The disparity between what we hear about public attitudes and what the data actually shows merits some explanation.
We know that people’s attitudes on migration are largely stable, based on deeply held values and mainly formed when young. People’s attitudes are relatively slow to change. Generational change is likely key to explaining the long-term positive trends in this area. On the other hand, the salience of immigration – whether the public see immigration as a top issue of concern – can fluctuate dramatically, driven by media attention and political narratives.
This sounds incongruous given the rise of the far right in some European countries. However, we know that austerity policies, economic insecurity and economic decline are key factors driving the far-right vote.
Researchers have also uncovered a “reverse backlash” effect. This is where greater success of populist radical right parties is actually accompanied by more citizens reporting positive attitudes on immigration, specifically because they want to distance themselves from radical right views.
Negative trends
What does stand out in the latest round of ESS data is that more negative trends are emerging across multiple countries simultaneously. This is most notable in Ireland, the UK, the Netherlands and Poland, but also in Iceland and France.
In Ireland, there is a substantial ten percentage point fall from the previous survey round (2020-22) in respondents reporting that immigration makes their country a better place to live. The UK sees a five percentage point fall (from 68% to 63%) on the same question – still a significant positive majority compared to only 17% who feel immigration makes the UK a worse place to live - but a notable shift nonetheless.
This could be a temporary fluctuation, like the kind seen in Sweden and Germany, between 2018-19 and 2020-22. Both countries took in high numbers of refugees during Europe’s so-called “refugee crisis”, which may have led to an uptick of concern around the impact of immigration. However, these fluctuations can be minor and short-lived.
Another possibility is that we are finally seeing public attitudes shift in line with the more hostile, anti-immigrant environment that has been nurtured by politicians and media. This could be the start of another generational shift – possibly a reflection of the fact that some far-right groups are proving to be particularly popular with younger voters.
These dips may prove temporary – if not, we risk squandering the public good of a positive European public precisely at a time when Europe needs immigration the most.
Claire Kumar via ODI Global - has received funding from IKEA Foundation for this research work.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
