Arsenal losing to Liverpool on Wednesday night was disappointing, yes, but in truth, the result changes very little in the top-four race and that's despite Tottenham Hotspur beating Brighton.
With Manchester United crashing out of the Champions League on Tuesday night, the reward for finishing fourth in the Premier League will be a place in the competition next season after a nightmare scenario was avoided. Assuming that, in no particular order, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea take up the first three spots, there's still one more place up for grabs and as many as five teams are in contention for it.
Arsenal currently occupy the final Champions League qualification spot, but only five points separate them in fourth to Wolves in eighth and with just over two months left of the campaign, whoever can remain consistent will win the top-four race. Perhaps crucially, the Gunners now have two games in hand over Wolves as well as Man United and West Ham United, but only one over their north London rivals Spurs.
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The first of those games in hand took place on Wednesday, but Mikel Arteta's side failed to take advantage as second half goals from Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino denied them a chance to extend their lead over the Red Devils to at least two points. And with Spurs overcoming Brighton at the Amex Stadium, the top-four race is well and truly heating up. However, very little has changed with regards to the points total required to seal Champions League qualification.
Before a ball was kicked at the Emirates Stadium, 79 points was the target to win the top-four battle. This is because Spurs - who now sit three points behind the Gunners - can only reach 78 after losing to Man United at the weekend. Man United's maximum points total is 77 and the Hammers can finish the season on 75 points if they win their remaining nine Premier League fixtures. Although with 11 games left of their season, Arsenal can reach the magic 79 mark with a game to spare.
A further 28 points is required to guarantee the Gunners' return to European football's top table without relying on Man United, West Ham, Spurs and Wolves slipping up and that works out to nine wins and a draw in the perfect scenario. Of course, it should be noted that as there are games between the top-four rivals still to be played, only one side - as unlikely as it is - has a chance of ending the season with a perfect winning record.
As a result, a points total lower than 79 should be enough for Champions League qualification, continuing a trend of the required points total for the final Champions League entry position declining in each year from 76 in 2016/17 to 67 last season. If 67 points is to be enough once again this season, then Arsenal need five wins and a draw from 11 games to reach that total. But to give themselves a better chance of qualification they will most likely need to aim for the high 70s.
The game(s) in hand has given the Gunners a nice cushion so that losing to Liverpool hasn't seen them lose the advantage in the top-four race, although they must get back to winning ways starting with Saturday's trip to Aston Villa.
Arsenal's remaining fixtures
19/03 - Aston Villa (a)
04/04 - Crystal Palace (a)
09/04 - Brighton (h)
16/04 - Southampton (a)
20/04 - Chelsea (a)
23/04 - Man United (h)
01/05 - West Ham (a)
07/05 - Leeds United (h)
15/05 - Newcastle United (a)
22/05 - Everton (h)
TBD - Tottenham (a)
