Walmart Inc. (WMT), headquartered in Bentonville, Arkansas, is a global retail leader with a vast network of stores and e-commerce platforms in 19 countries. Known for everyday low prices, it operates through Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam’s Club and is valued at a robust market cap of $792.5 billion.
Shares of this retail giant have outpaced the broader market considerably over the past year. WMT has gained 78.7% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 23.3%. In 2025, WMT stock is up 9.2%, surpassing SPX’s 3.2% rise on a YTD basis.
Zooming in further, WMT has also surpassed the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 16.3% over the past year and a 2.6% return in 2025.
Walmart's strong rise over the past year has been fueled by its expanding e-commerce segment, which is projected to turn profitable within the next one to two years, driven by digital advertising and its online marketplace. Additionally, Walmart has gained substantial market share, including from higher-income households seeking value, solidifying its position as a leader in the retail sector.
On Nov. 19, Walmart posted its third-quarter earnings report, and its shares rose 3%. Both its top line and bottom line surpassed the market’s expectations, and the company also raised its fiscal 2025 guidance, forecasting adjusted EPS between $2.42 and $2.47.
For the current fiscal year, ending in January 2025, analysts expect WMT’s EPS to grow 11.7% to $2.48 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is impressive. It beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.
Among the 36 analysts covering WMT stock, the consensus is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 29 “Strong Buy” ratings, four “Moderate Buys,” and three “Holds.”
This configuration is less bullish than three months ago, with 30 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”
On Jan. 21, Morgan Stanley (MS) raised Walmart's price target to $106 from $100 while maintaining an “Overweight” rating, citing its scale, investment in next-gen retail tech, and leadership in its segment as key strengths in the 2025 retail outlook.
The mean price target of $99.92 represents a 1.3% premium to WMT’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $115 suggests an upside potential of 16.6%.
