Dollar General Corporation (DG), headquartered in Goodlettsville, Tennessee, is a discount retailer that provides various merchandise products. Valued at $16.3 billion by market cap, the company offers a broad selection of merchandise, including consumable products such as food, paper and cleaning products, health, beauty, pet supplies, and non-consumables such as seasonal merchandise.
Shares of this leading discount retailer have significantly underperformed the broader market over the past year. DG has declined 45.8% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 20.5%. In 2025, DG stock is down 2.7%, compared to the SPX’s 2.9% rise on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, DG’s underperformance is also apparent compared to the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 6% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 1.3% dip on a YTD basis outshine the stock’s losses over the same time frame.
DG's underperformance stems from decreased consumer spending, margin pressures, intense competition, inventory management issues, inflation, as well as market share losses to larger retailers like Walmart Inc. (WMT).
On Dec. 5, DG reported its Q3 results, and its shares closed up more than 2% in the following trading session. Its EPS of $0.89 did not meet Wall Street expectations of $0.96. The company’s revenue was $10.2 billion, topping Wall Street forecasts of $10.1 billion. DG expects full-year EPS to be between $5.50 and $5.90.
For the current fiscal year, ended in January, analysts expect DG’s EPS to decline 23.8% to $5.75 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on two other occasions.
Among the 28 analysts covering DG stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 10 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” 16 “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”
This configuration is more bullish than three months ago, with one analyst suggesting a “Moderate Sell.”
On Jan. 27, Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma maintained a “Buy” rating on DG with a price target of $92, implying a potential upside of 24.6% from current levels.
The mean price target of $88.41 represents a 19.8% premium to DG’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $108 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 46.3%.
