With a market cap of $21.9 billion, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is a global leader in the production of food and beverage ingredients, as well as agricultural products, with operations spanning procurement, processing, and distribution. Based in Chicago, Illinois, ADM operates across multiple segments, including Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition, serving industries worldwide.
Shares of the agricultural giant have underperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. ADM has dropped 13.7% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 20.7%. On a YTD basis, shares of ADM are down 9.3%, compared to SPX’s 3.1% increase.
Narrowing the focus, ADM has also lagged behind the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLP) 8.7% rise over the past 52 weeks and 1.1% return on a YTD basis.
Despite beating the consensus estimate with adjusted Q4 EPS of $1.14, Archer Daniels Midland's stock slipped 5.1% on Feb. 4. Revenue of $21.5 billion missed estimates and declined 6.5% year-over-year, primarily due to weaker performance in the Ag Services & Oilseeds segment. The segment’s operating profit dropped 32% year-over-year, with the Crushing and Refined Products & Other subsegments facing margin pressures from higher industry run rates, biofuel policy uncertainty, and increased manufacturing costs. Lastly, management’s 2025 EPS guidance of $4 - $4.75, indicated ongoing challenges from biofuel policy uncertainty, trade risks, and soft market fundamentals.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December 2025, analysts expect ADM’s EPS to decline 5.7% year-over-year to $4.47. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat or met the consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing on another occasion.
Among the 10 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Hold.” That’s based on eight “Hold” ratings, one “Moderate Sell,” and one “Strong Sell.”
On Feb. 5, J.P. Morgan analyst Tami Zakaria maintained a “Hold“ rating on Archer Daniels Midland and set a price target of $48.
As of writing, ADM is trading below the mean price target of $52.22. The Street-high price target of $64 implies a potential upside of 38.9% from the current price.
