The Washington Commanders are 4-9 and currently hold the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. A lot can happen over the remaining five weeks, but Washington appears to be in an outstanding position to land a top-five overall pick.
In all likelihood, someone other than current head coach Ron Rivera will be making that selection. Rivera’s days as Washington’s coach and top football executive appear numbered. Of course, under a new owner (Josh Harris), the Commanders were likely making significant changes outside of a Super Bowl appearance.
With tons of cap space and potential high selection in the draft, the Washington jobs are expected to be attractive.
So, what are the Commanders’ chances of landing the top overall selection?
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Commanders have a 0.7% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, which is fifth, behind the Bears (from the Panthers), Patriots, Cardinals and Giants.
However, Washington’s chances appear strong to land a top-five pick, as ESPN’s FPI gives the Commanders a 62.4% chance of selecting in the top five. Washington is a lock to pick in the top 10, holding a 98.6% chance.
It’s doubtful the Commanders pick No. 1 overall. They are three wins behind Carolina with four to go. While it seems possible that Washington won’t win another game, it’s difficult to imagine the Panthers winning more than one or two.
The Commanders’ chances of picking in the top five should be more than 62.4%, though. Washington’s final four games are at the Rams, the Jets, the 49ers and the Cowboys.
It’s two best chances at wins are against the Jets on Christmas Eve and the season finale against the Cowboys. Does anyone believe the Commanders can score enough against New York’s terrific defense? Washington’s only chance to beat Dallas is if the Cowboys sit their starts if nothing is on the line.
So, for Washington, the biggest question for the next regime is to build around quarterback Sam Howell in 2024, or replace him. If the Commanders do end up holding a top-five selection, they’ll have some choices.
